Why Kashmir’s local election could usher in a new political era

The Explainer

Kashmir is abuzz with possibility as residents cast their ballots in the first local election since Delhi stripped the territory of its statehood.

The contested Himalayan region – claimed by Pakistan, India, and China – is kicking off nearly two weeks of voting across 90 assembly constituencies, with results expected Oct. 8. Besides featuring the usual big-name political parties, the election has witnessed a flurry of independent candidates as well as the rise of smaller, hyperlocal parties – any combination of which could lead the region into a new era.

But to deliver on campaign promises, the incoming administration will need to navigate a challenging political landscape that has changed dramatically since elections were last held a decade ago. In August 2019, India’s central government revoked the region’s limited autonomy and downgraded Jammu and Kashmir from a state to a federal territory, ruled from New Delhi. New laws have further weakened local authority and empowered the Delhi-appointed lieutenant governor, altering the framework and spirit of Kashmiri politics. 

Q: What are the top issues in this election?

Many candidates have emphasized the need to protect local jobs and land rights, and have called for dialogue with neighboring Pakistan. Some have advocated for repealing controversial laws used to stifle dissent, as well as the 1990 Armed Forces Special Powers Act, which grants India’s military sweeping powers in Kashmir. 

But the main goal uniting all political factions is the restoration of full statehood for Jammu and Kashmir – and of the special political autonomy the state once enjoyed.

Political scientist Rekha Chowdhary says that everyone running for office in Kashmir talks about bringing back Article 370, which allowed the state to maintain a separate constitution, flag, and laws. Most analysts agree that while the return of statehood could be within reach, regaining that special autonomy is not.

Even party leaders realize “it might take around a hundred years to achieve that,” Dr. Chowdhary says. “These statements appeal more to emotions than to actual possibilities.”

Q: What can the assembly actually do?

Jammu and Kashmir’s Legislative Assembly lost significant power with the state’s downgrade to a union territory, and new rules introduced this July transferred additional powers over law enforcement, finance, and the senior bureaucracy to the lieutenant governor. The lieutenant governor now has authority over the Anti-Corruption Bureau, the Forensic Science Laboratory, and other important institutions, and “they even mandate that his representative sit in on Cabinet meetings and that policy decisions be vetted by his office,” says Radha Kumar, former Delhi-appointed interlocutor on Kashmir. 

She adds that this division of power “sets up a battle between the elected and nominated authorities,” making the assembly’s work over the next five years all the more challenging.

These changes are also motivating some Kashmiris to become more politically engaged. “People are realizing that they have been dispossessed,” says Waheed Parra, an assembly candidate in south Kashmir’s Pulwama district and former adviser to Jammu and Kashmir’s chief minister. “Institutions that were once irrelevant to us now symbolize our removal from the system, and this realization has turned political participation into an act of self-preservation.”

Many are hopeful that, despite the assembly’s curtailed powers, the act of electing a legislative body will mark the first step in regaining some local autonomy. “Once we reclaim that space, then we can demand statehood or other rights,” Mr. Parra says. 

Q: How have Kashmiri politics changed since the last assembly elections?

Dr. Chowdhary says one striking shift is the disappearance of groups that fundamentally oppose Indian rule. Most anti-India groups – which frequently called to boycott elections – have been banned or rebranded since 2019, leading to the absence of separatist politics.

“Anyone seeking to raise a political voice in Kashmir has to compete in the democratic space,” she says.

That includes Jamaat-e-Islami Kashmir, a banned socioreligious organization and the ideological fountainhead of a prominent separatist militant outfit. Jamaat-e-Islami Kashmir is backing several candidates for assembly seats, marking the group’s first foray into regional elections in 37 years. 

The shift is reflected in voters, too. Concerns over election-rigging and violence at polling sites have historically dampened turnout. In the past, many young Kashmiris saw stone-throwing and other forms of protest as a better way to challenge India’s central government. But parliamentary elections this year saw record turnout throughout the region, and the large presence of Kashmiris – especially young voters – at recent rallies bodes well for the assembly elections.

Today, Mr. Parra says Kashmiris are casting votes instead of stones. “These are angry young people who are now placing their faith in democracy,” he says.