Why Ukraine’s gambit to join the EU doesn’t hinge on getting in

The Explainer

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has left no doubt about where he sees his country’s future – in Europe. In an impassioned plea on March 1, Mr. Zelenskyy said that Ukraine was fighting not only for its rights, but also “to be equal members of Europe.” Just the day before, he submitted an official application to join the bloc.

European leaders have expressed their solidarity, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen saying that Ukraine “is one of us and we want them in the European Union.”

But despite best intentions, there are many political and bureaucratic roadblocks to admitting Ukraine. Can its application for EU membership go beyond the symbolic?

When will Ukraine join the EU?

Probably not for several years, if ever.

While there is a minute chance that Ukraine is fast-tracked to candidate status as a gesture of goodwill, it remains highly unlikely. The EU accession process is long and arduous, requiring candidate countries to meet economic and political standards under the Copenhagen criteria.

The entire process can stretch 10 years or more, and the final decision rests with the bloc’s 27 member states, which must unanimously give the green light.

The acceptance process for Sweden, Finland, and Austria, which were seen as strong candidates when they applied, took at least three years before completion. Serbia, Montenegro, and Turkey applied for membership over a decade ago and still remain deadlocked in negotiations.

What hurdles stand in the way of Ukraine’s membership?

If Ukraine were to join the EU, it would be the poorest nation within the bloc, with a gross domestic product per capita around a third of that of formerly communist Bulgaria, the EU’s current poorest member. Ukraine would also be one of the largest in both geography and population.

The government would have to commit to major economic reforms to prove its ability to be a benefit, not a burden, to the bloc. That would be further hindered by the economic toll brought on by the current invasion.

And while European politicians could push through its application more quickly to candidate status due to the war, the conflict is likely to be the primary reason Ukraine isn’t admitted to the EU anytime soon. Territorial integrity is a major pillar of EU membership, and Ukraine’s involvement in a recent or ongoing conflict would make it an undesirable candidate.

Above all, fast-tracking Ukraine’s application would set a new precedent about how countries are granted membership, which risks undermining the process. It could be seen as an affront to those countries whose applications have stalled for decades. And long-standing expansion fatigue, worsened by Brexit and economic crises, could make member states bristle at allowing Ukraine in – quickly, or at all.

“I think the EU would grant Ukraine candidate status faster than it would under normal circumstances – as a gesture of moral, diplomatic, and political support,” says Douglas Webber, professor emeritus of political science and a Europe specialist at the Paris campus of Insead, a business school. “However, actual accession to the EU, in the best of circumstances, would take a very long time.”

Then what was the point of Ukraine’s application?

Ukraine’s application is primarily symbolic. It sends a clear message to Russia that Ukraine has no intentions of surrendering its independence and sees itself as part of Europe going forward.

“This really shows that Ukraine has set itself on the Western path, that it wants to become a democracy, and has cut off past dependence on Russia,” says Jana Juzová, a research fellow at Europeum Institute for European Policy, a think tank in Brussels. “It has explosive potential.”

Ukraine will also benefit from the political support and solidarity of EU member states, which can only help boost morale during the invasion and remind Ukrainians what they are fighting for.

“We absolutely need the Ukrainians to continue the struggle,” said Marie Mendras, a Russian specialist from Sciences Po Paris, during a meeting with the Anglo-American Press Association in Paris at the end of February. “And for that, they need to see [the light at] the end of the tunnel, which can only be Europe.”