Macron faces a fractured France. Can he govern for the whole?

In his speech announcing victory over far-right opponent Marine Le Pen Sunday night, French President Emmanuel Macron assured the public that his next five years in office would spell a new chapter, with hopes of leading with respect while repairing the nation’s divisions.

“You’ve made the choice of an ambitious humanist project for the independence of our country and for Europe,” Mr. Macron said to a massive crowd beneath a glittering Eiffel Tower. “I’m not the candidate of one camp anymore, but the president of all of us.”

The course of the French presidency – not just in Mr. Macron’s second term, but beyond – may depend on how well he fulfills that promise.

Though the centrist Mr. Macron fended off Ms. Le Pen by what appears on its face to be a sizable margin – 58.5% to 41.4% – those figures belie the polarization of French society. Ms. Le Pen improved on her 2017 presidential bid by seven points. Both far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the extreme-right Eric Zemmour command significant blocs of support as well.

That leaves Mr. Macron facing a frustrated and polarized public. If he does not prove that he has concrete plans to address its concerns, like the escalating cost of living for the lower and middle classes, experts say, he risks not only hampering his own ability to govern, but also giving radical parties an advantage in future elections.

“If he doesn’t take charge of a real program where people’s lives will improve,” says Oleg Kobtzeff, a professor of history and politics at the American University of Paris, “five years from now Marine Le Pen or someone else on the extremes will be president.”

An end to “Jupiter”?

On Sunday night, Mr. Macron seemed to understand the position he finds himself in.

“I want to lead my [political] program with strength in the coming years as an agent who can unite the divisions and differences that have been expressed,” he reiterated in his victory speech. “No one will be left behind.”

To do this, Mr. Macron will need to show that he plans to govern differently. In his first term, he earned a reputation for governing in an insular, imperious fashion – what the French call a “Jupiter” style, in reference to the Roman king of the gods.

To continue to do so could earn a repeat of events like the yellow vest social protest movement, which launched in 2018. Already, his proposed pension reform – which would increase the retirement age from 62 to 65 – caused nationwide protests ahead of the elections.

“The way Macron has worked until now is to push his ideas in a very unilateral, vertical way, when it comes to how he interacts with other European leaders or on domestic policy,” says Tara Varma, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations in Paris.

“He will have to change his method, to work with opposition parties or with the people through referendums. There’s more work that needs to be done in terms of re-legitimizing democracy and the idea of representation, ensuring to citizens that their voice matters.”

That could include fulfilling promises he made during the presidential campaign to far-right and far-left voters, including to hire more health-care professionals, increase teacher’s wages, and make France the first country to stop using coal and gas.

Already, Mr. Macron seemed willing to find a compromise on his pension reform plans, which have become particularly divisive. “If I want to unite people,” he told French television after the first round of elections, “I have to listen.”

A political obstacle

Key to Mr. Macron’s agenda will be the outcome of June’s parliamentary elections.

France has only experienced three “cohabitation” periods – where the presidency and parliamentary majority are held by different parties – since 1958. Mr. Macron’s presidential victory was highly dependent on anti-Le Pen voters, and this year’s presidential election saw the lowest voter turnout since 1969 at 71.8%. That makes the chance of Mr. Macron’s En Marche party winning a majority in parliament, as they did in 2017, seem questionable.

If En Marche fails to top the June elections, the winning party would instead get to name the prime minister, who would in turn be in charge of selecting the cabinet. Mr. Macron would lead the French army and much of foreign policy, but would be left without the ability to set the domestic policy agenda.

“Macron will probably have a strong position at the parliament but this is still an area where there is a great deal of uncertainty,” says Douglas Webber, professor emeritus of political science at INSEAD. “There will most likely be a high level of continuity in what Macron does going forward in terms of shaping the EU, the response to the war in Ukraine, and European defense.

“But in terms of what he can achieve on domestic issues, the outcome of the parliamentary elections will be very important when it comes to him implementing his agenda.”

That makes the next two months critical for Mr. Macron, as he assesses En Marche’s identity and the direction it must take. His party has always been attached to his persona – once a political outsider hoping optimistically to take the country in a new direction – but that is no longer the case.

The French public will be watching whether Mr. Macron backtracks on his campaign promises and jumps on pension reform at the start of his mandate, as well as if he will switch out some of his more controversial or ineffectual cabinet ministers when his new government is announced in the first week of May.

Not enough pressure to change?

The past suggests that Mr. Macron may not feel the need to cater to the broader swath of those who voted for him. After the 2002 presidential election, when the French turned out en masse to prevent Ms. Le Pen’s father, far-right National Front party leader Jean-Marie Le Pen, from winning the presidency, many expected center-right winner Jacques Chirac to reward liberal voters who had helped him win by a landslide of 82%.

But that didn’t happen. Though he had campaigned on healing social divisions, France saw some of its worst unrest in decades under his watch, when the Paris suburbs exploded in violence in 2005. That same year, he launched a national referendum to ratify the constitution for Europe, which France rejected, sending the country into political turmoil.

“There may be areas where Macron will try to do a little bit, like on environmental policy, but I’m not sure if the pressure on him after the election to move towards the left will be that strong once he’s gotten their votes,” says Dr. Webber. “If his proposed reforms are unpopular, there is a high potential for strong protests.”

But Mr. Macron’s situation is much less solid – and far-right politicians are much more popular – than the circumstances in which Mr. Chirac found himself. That may spur him to adapt.

“Mr. Macron is an intelligent politician,” says Dr. Kobtzeff, “so hopefully he’ll understand that he needs to think of new ideas on how to run the country.”