Why Finns, once NATO skeptics, are ready to embrace alliance

When Russia seized and annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, the move sparked only a modest uptick in support for joining NATO in historically neutral Finland. That was not a surprise to experts at the time.

“If one were to bet,” political scientist Tuomas Forsberg observed then, “it might be better to bet on continuity. The security environment has changed, but [the] psychology remains more entrenched.”

Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine has been a very different matter.

Just as the invasion has created a seismic shift in Europe’s security environment, as well has it shaken the psychology of its individual peoples. In Finland, that has meant the public’s rapid abandonment of its longtime preference for officially staying outside NATO. Now, according to a recent poll, over 75% of Finns support applying for full membership – something that, by all reports, Finland is now on the threshold of doing.

Moreover, says Dr. Forsberg, who is director of the Helsinki Collegium for Advanced Studies at Helsinki University, the shift in the public’s mood is something of a surprise. “Most experts,” he says, “including me, predicted that the change would occur first in [nonaligned] Sweden, then with the Finnish leadership, and then public opinion.” Instead, the public led the charge.

A rapid realignment

At present, Finland is only a member of NATO’s Partnership of Peace program, which enables cooperation between NATO members and nonmembers. Though Finland, like neighboring Sweden, works closely with NATO and participates in its operations, it officially remains nonaligned.

But the government appears ready to change that.

Until recently Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, who prided himself on his equable relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, had been noncommittal on the question of joining NATO, while touting the handiness of having the “NATO option,” i.e., the option of joining the alliance if the circumstances warranted. Then came Feb. 24 and, as the shaken president said that day, “the mask came off” his Russian counterpart’s face “and all one sees is the cold front of war.”

Mr. Niinistö has said that on May 12, following the publication of a white paper prepared by the Foreign Ministry for parliament about the changes in the European security environment and the options open to Finland, including full NATO membership, he will state his own position on the matter. By all reports, the Finnish president will come out in favor of joining the treaty alliance.

At the same time, the Social Democrats, the primary party in the five-party governing coalition, who have traditionally been opposed to joining, are also scheduled to debate the NATO question. Most experts expect they will come out in support of joining, as the other four coalition parties already have.

Once the Social Democrats and President Niinistö have declared their position, Finland is expected to formally apply – likely in tandem with the government of Sweden, which has been equally alarmed and outraged by the Russian invasion.

“We can’t make a decision for the Swedes and the Swedes can’t make a decision for us,” says Mr. Haavisto. “These are separate processes. But yes they are taking place around the same time.”

It will take some months for all 30 NATO members to accept Finland or Sweden as full-fledged members. How Russia, which has threatened to take unspecified action once that takes place, including possibly introducing nuclear weapons to the Baltic region, will respond remains an open question.

The Finnish people opened the door for the government to change, says Pekka Haavisto, the Finnish foreign minister. For years, joining NATO has been a minority position among the Finns. In winter 2014, the year of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Finnish support for joining NATO hovered around 18%, according to polling by the Finnish Business and Policy Forum – EVA. Even as recently as late 2021, only 22% of the populace favored giving up the country’s nonaligned status and signing up.

“In March we already saw the first opinion poll with a majority of Finns supporting membership,” says Mr. Haavisto, referring to the first major poll taken a week after the invasion, which indicated that 53% of Finns favored full membership.

“The change in the [Finnish] mindset took place very rapidly after Feb. 24,” Mr. Haavisto says. “It is natural that when war comes close to us ... and we see Russia behaving in an aggressive way in our neighborhood against another country that there would be a strong psychological reaction.”

Dr. Forsberg speculates that the reason the invasion of Ukraine has been so seismic for Finns is that “perhaps it came so close to the Finnish collective memory of the Winter War” between the Soviet Union and Finland in 1939-40. That war, like the Ukraine war, also entailed a broad front surprise attack by forces under Moscow’s orders. In March 1940, Helsinki had to capitulate after putting up a valiant three-month fight, an outcome which the staunchly democratic Finns ardently hope the Ukrainians will avoid repeating.

“Now obviously everything has changed”

In any case, anecdotal evidence points to the effect that the most recent Russian invasion has had on the Finnish psyche.

For those like Ilpo Jäppinen, a veteran book editor who has always supported joining NATO, Ukraine only confirmed his original support for joining. “I’ve been for NATO membership my adult life because I have always been interested in history, and when I have studied the history of our two countries, I have come to the conclusion that Finland alone has never been able to defend its territory and independence against Russia.”

“Finland may have a strong military,” adds Mr. Jäppinen, “however in the end it’s no match against the Russian armed forces.”

Mikael Mikkelson, a Helsinki high school student, agrees. “What happened in Ukraine on Feb. 24 just strengthened my opinion that the time to join NATO is now or never,” says Mr. Mikkelson. “What is happening in Ukraine could also happen here, too. Then we will be as alone as Ukraine is now. There is no so-called ‘NATO option’ in that scenario anymore.”

“Of course there are risks and different scenarios about how Russia could respond to our decision to join,” he adds, “but if I had to choose from the two ‘bad’ alternatives, it seems to me that joining NATO is definitely the less bad.”

More common were those Finns like Jere Rauhansalo, a front desk clerk at a Helsinki hotel, who before the Ukraine war was skeptical of the arguments for joining NATO. “We have successfully balanced between East and West,” says Mr. Rauhansalo, who like most Finnish young men served a year in the Finnish army. “Before the Russian invasion I didn’t see any concrete reason to change that dynamic.”

“Now obviously everything has changed and I have decided that we must join.”

Ilkka Ranta-aho, a freelance writer and musician, agrees. “The idea of bolstering the nation’s security has been an on and off topic for a long time,” he says. “For me there were always more important things to consider. Finland’s position in the world seemed to be very stable, so no change was needed.”

“Then February 2022 made it clear that our ‘trust’ in Russia had always been misplaced. All of a sudden the potential peril became clear. Alone we would not stand a chance,” he says. “Joining NATO seems the best way to continue the peaceful life we have become accustomed to.”