Ukraine’s candidacy for EU sends a signal. Now the hard part begins.

Until last week, Ukraine’s candidacy for membership in the European Union was far from a foregone conclusion.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, for starters, made no secret of their lack of enthusiasm for the idea, with Mr. Macron suggesting that perhaps a lower-tier, non-member political alliance was the best way to go.

But after visiting Ukraine last week – surveying wreckage and graffiti that, reporters on the scene noted, implored “Make Europe, not war” – the leaders announced, in the face of political pressure and a desire, perhaps, to be on the right side of history, their support. And on Thursday, the bloc made Ukraine’s candidacy official, in a striking show of unity widely seen as a rebuke to Russia for waging a brutal war to keep the former Soviet republic under its control.

“Ukraine is going through hell for a simple reason: its desire to join the EU,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tweeted on the eve of the announcement. She later added that it would serve as a signal “to the world that the EU is united and strong in the face of external threats.”

But while the move to candidate status happened in record time, becoming a member is itself an arduous process that can take more than a decade – sometimes more than two. It entails meeting exacting requirements to, among other things, tackle the sort of deep-seated corruption that has long plagued Ukraine and other candidate countries. 

The challenge for Kyiv in the months and years to come, analysts say, will be embarking on transformative reforms to enshrine human rights, a sustainable market economy, and rule of law throughout the country while fighting a war.

The challenge for the EU will be how to assure other candidate countries – including those who have suffered democratic backsliding in the midst of their yearslong efforts to join the union without success – that an offer to join the union is not an empty promise.

A big deal for Ukraine

In the Orange Revolution of 2004, Ukrainians took to the streets in a wave of civil resistance, protesting massive presidential election fraud and voter intimidation.

Europe was watching as the country ushered in changes in presidential election law and constitutional reform as Viktor Yushchenko – who survived a near-fatal poisoning while campaigning against the Kremlin-backed candidate – went on to serve as president from 2005 to 2010.

It was the beginning of talk about possible membership in the EU “in a serious way,” says Rosa Balfour, director of the think tank Carnegie Europe in Brussels.

A decade later, the Euromaidan revolution was sparked by then-President Viktor Yanukovych’s refusal, due to Russian pressure, to sign a widely popular free trade agreement with the EU.

It was the final straw for protestors angered by, among other things, government corruption and the influence of oligarchs. They occupied Independence Square in Kyiv and battled security forces, ultimately ousting Mr. Yanukovych.

Given this history, EU candidate status is “a big deal politically and symbolically for Ukraine,” says Bruno Lété, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Brussels.

“It’s saying, ‘Look, we want to reward you for years and years of reforms you’ve been undergoing since [Euromaidan] revolution.”

That said, it’s just the beginning of what promises to be, by most estimates, at least a decade-long process.

“I think often for people outside the EU, their view is, ‘What’s the big deal to join the EU?’ as if it’s like any other multilateral organization,” says Max Bergmann, director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But it’s like if Mexico decides to become part of the United States.”

Countries who join – Croatia most recently became the 28th member nation in 2013 – must tackle a massive to-do list that includes everything from judicial system reform to precisely what statistical parameters must be implemented when carrying out censuses.

Obligations for the EU

And while there’s broad backing within the EU for giving Ukraine candidate status, there’s no unanimity when it comes to support for actually making many candidate countries into members, says Mr. Lété.

EU rules require unanimity on major policy decisions. This has led to embarrassing roadblocks due to the objections of a single member state.

“The EU is still structured the way it was structured when it had 12 member states,” Mr. Lété says. “It can’t function efficiently anymore.”

Today, five countries – Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Turkey – are candidates to join the EU. But many have concerns about how the addition of these countries’ people – and now Ukraine’s 40 million citizens too – could change the EU, with its 447 million inhabitants, from within, Mr. Lété adds.

For this reason and others – including failure to enact required reforms – movement on the candidate applications has been slow. In the interim, some candidate nations have experienced significant backsliding on basic democratic principles like rule of law.

“The challenge that countries, especially in the Balkans, have found is that once it became clear to them that actual membership wasn’t really in the cards anytime soon, the reform process starts to suffer,” Mr. Bergmann says.

Turkey, which obtained its candidate status in 1999, is a notable example. North Macedonia has a leader who has made “very brave” decisions in recent years, but, “We should find a way that this bravery isn’t disappointed,” German Chancellor Scholz recently warned.

The EU “has not been good at rewarding countries who have carried out reforms,” Dr. Balfour of Carnegie Europe adds.

As a result, candidate status for Ukraine and Moldova – which also received the offer this week – raises questions about what to say to countries that have been working towards membership for years and are becoming increasingly frustrated about the slow pace of accession.

The EU must ensure that in five years’ time, Ukraine and Moldova “don’t find themselves in a situation of disappointment and disillusion,” Dr. Balfour says. She adds that this could happen if the countries “don’t see prospects of joining the EU as a goal, as a real anchor.”

Still, after being accused for years of enlargement fatigue, the EU’s unanimous vote this week “is testimony that the door is still open,” Mr. Lété says.

It is also a vote for unity that will give beleaguered Ukrainians a vital morale boost that will serve as a mobilizing force, Mr. Bergmann says.

“Are you fighting for a country that’s going to be perpetually wedged between the EU and Russia, always in a halfway house?” he asks. “Or are you fighting for a future?”