Ukraine to invade? Russia plotting? Rumors fly in Moldova amid protests.

Rolling street demonstrations are threatening to destabilize another fragile post-Soviet state. But in this case, it’s not pro-Western protesters pushing back against what they see as an authoritarian drift by their government, but pro-Russian demonstrators complaining about deteriorating living standards – and, also, creeping authoritarianism.

Crowds are surging through the streets of Chisinau, the capital city of tiny Moldova, the poorest country in Europe. But fallout from the war in next-door Ukraine has made economic prospects even worse and aggravated social tensions.

What makes Moldova’s situation especially dangerous is the presence next to its border with Ukraine of a Russian-speaking statelet, Transnistria, which broke away from Moldova after a brief war in 1992 and has maintained its unrecognized independence with Russian support ever since. It still hosts an occupying Russian army of about 1,500 troops, as well as an enormous Soviet-era ammunition depot near the town of Cobasna, with about 20,000 tons of Soviet-standard weaponry that is desperately needed by both sides in the nearby conflict.

Moscow has repeatedly claimed that Ukraine may be preparing a “provocation” with the aim of invading the little territory and seizing that arms stockpile. Officials in Tiraspol, the de facto capital of Transnistria, say the pro-Western government of President Maia Sandu, which has made joining the European Union a top priority, might decide to invite the Ukrainians to attack in hopes that Moldova’s long-standing “Transnistria problem” might be solved. The country’s path to the EU, and even NATO, would be much simpler with that “frozen conflict” removed.

For their part, officials in Chisinau insist that they are facing a Russian-orchestrated attempt to overthrow the government, using the populist opposition Shor party, which brought thousands to the streets of Chisinau last week amid raging inflation and deepening joblessness.

Regardless of who is right, and whether there is indeed foreign influence intentionally attempting to stir up unrest in Moldova for its own ends, the war in Ukraine is bringing Moldova’s existing polarization to a new extreme. And it highlights how the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is destabilizing the post-Soviet region more broadly.

Another Russian plot?

Moldova is the territory of historical Bessarabia, much of which was seized by Russia from Turkey in the 19th century, and the rest taken from Romania after World War II. It’s mostly Romanian-speaking but has substantial minorities of Turkic Gagauz and Slavic Russian-speakers in Transnistria.

That ethnic mix, along with endemic poverty and corruption, has kept Moldova in a state of near perpetual political crisis since it achieved independence three decades ago. Until the war in Ukraine raised the geopolitical stakes, Moscow and the West seemed able to cooperate in joint efforts to maintain stability in the turbulent little country.

That doesn’t seem possible anymore. Western sources claim that Russian secret services have a secret plan to wage “hybrid war” to prevent Moldova from integrating with the West, using opposition parties and the Moldovan Orthodox Church, which is loosely affiliated with the Russian Patriarchate – about 80% of Moldovan Orthodox believers belong to it – along with energy blackmail and other economic threats.

“The protests in the streets are artificially created by Russian interests, using the Shor Party as their tool,” alleges Arcadie Barbarosie, executive director of the independent Institute of Public Policy in Chisinau. “The Kremlin wants to take Moldova under its control, to use it as a point from which to attack Ukraine. I don’t think our state is in immediate danger, but all this noise in the street, these protests, show that there are serious attempts underway to block Moldova’s movement toward Europe.”

Ms. Sandu made a trenchant speech about that before the Moldovan Parliament last week, saying that “there is no other way for the Republic of Moldova except integration into the European Union,” and “all ethnic groups of the country should unite around the idea of European integration.” She blamed “bandits” for trying to sell out Moldova to Moscow and added “the Russian army will not reach Moldova, as the Ukrainian army protects us.”

Machinations in Chisinau?

But Russian analysts say the crisis in Moldova is being exacerbated by Ms. Sandu, whose government is the most pro-Western leadership post-Soviet Moldova has seen. The idea of unifying with neighboring Romania, with whom most Moldovans share a common language and culture, has been in the air since independence from the USSR three decades ago.

Being absorbed into Romania, which is already an EU and NATO member, is a seductive idea for many Moldovans discouraged by the difficulties that have persistently swamped the little country’s efforts to establish its statehood. A quarter of Moldovans have already acquired Romanian citizenship, and some polls have suggested that majorities would vote for unification in a hypothetical referendum.

“Moldovans are experiencing rapid impoverishment, with 30% inflation and the economy contracting by about 4%,” says Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, an expert at the official Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow. “Sandu has let this situation worsen,” he claims, “with the idea that Moldovans will accept [that] the only solution is unification with Romania, which would be a pathway into the EU.”

Given its fractured politics, epic corruption, and massive economic problems, Moldova has always been considered a poor candidate for EU membership. But Mr. Ofitserov-Belsky argues that Ms. Sandu is using the polarized geopolitics around the Ukraine war, and the claimed threat of a Russian-inspired coup, to press Europe for accelerated acceptance into the bloc.

“Most Moldovans would be happy with the idea of the EU solving their problems,” he says. “There are two ways that it could happen. The quickest and surest would be to unify with Romania, which is an EU member, but that is not a popular idea among Moldova’s ruling class because they would go from leaders of a country to a minor provincial elite, and their businesses would be taken over by Romanian oligarchs. But the hope of joining the EU as a sovereign nation looks doubtful, since Moldova cannot hope to meet EU criteria. Hence these passionate speeches from Sandu.”

Still, the Ukraine war is at Moldova’s doorstep, and there is considerable anxiety about its future course, especially in Transnistria.

“We feel like Transnistria is the vulnerable place through which Moldova can be drawn into the war,” says Igor Shornikov, director of the local government-backed Institute of Socio-Political and Regional Development Studies in Tiraspol. “We have a Russian peacekeeping contingent here, and they are guarding the ammunition depots. Ukraine is experiencing ‘shell starvation,’ and there is a huge store of what they need just 2 kilometers from the border, in Cobasna.”

He claims that Kyiv has offered to step in militarily to eliminate Russian control in Transnistria. “But [Ms. Sandu] needs to issue an invitation, to give a green light to Ukrainian intervention. She hasn’t done that, and there are a lot of good reasons why she shouldn’t. Everyone understands that it could lead to a much wider war.”