A frustrated French public defies Macron. But do protests matter?

At the Place de la Bastille, young people have jumped onto the monumental turquoise pillar, setting off colorful smoke bombs. Reggae music blares out of trade union truck speakers, and a Brazilian drumming group has everyone dancing.

It’s not exactly 1789 and the storming of the Bastille, but it is apropos. After all, it was here that the French revolution began.

“We think and we hope that these protests will do something,” says Linda Blanchard, a psychiatric nurse who is only a few years from retiring, and is one of the more than 1 million nationwide expressing their discontent with President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform bill. “We’re not revolutionaries, we don’t want to destroy everything. We just think everyone should be allowed a decent living.”

Two weeks ago, Mr. Macron’s government sidestepped Parliament and enacted the bill – which increases the retirement age from 62 to 64 – without a vote, using a special constitutional maneuver. That has motivated demonstrators to continue their protests, with a 10th one today in cities across France. Though they have been largely peaceful, some protesters have set fire to garbage cans and bicycles, and smashed storefronts.

While some French people are calling for a total upheaval of the government and France’s Fifth Republic, many simply want the pension reform bill dropped. Regardless, one thing is clear: The French want change.

But there are growing questions about the protest movement’s effectiveness. Mr. Macron has shown no signs of wanting to compromise. And if the French are always demonstrating, it is unclear what it will take to move the government. In a country where voicing dissent is the rule, not the exception, do protests still matter?

“The question many protesters are going to ask themselves without a doubt is, what is the point?” says Vincent Tournier, a political scientist at Sciences Po Grenoble. “But protests are not going to disappear, because they respond to an old tradition that has been almost ritualized. It wakes up the collective consciousness that modern life tends to put to sleep.

“On the other hand, its global effectiveness remains limited and this is the problem for protesters. They don’t have the means to disrupt the country in a profound way unless they launch a long-lasting general strike. But are they ready to go that far?”

“If we do nothing, what does it mean?”

Four years after the French revolution, the “right to rebellion” was inscribed in the French Constitution of 1793. Although that document was never implemented, protest has become a French tradition ever since.

In addition to the May 1968 student protests and nationwide shutdown – which resulted in significant wage gains for workers and snap legislative elections – there have been other small-scale victories. In 1995, the French government pulled the plug on its plan to overhaul the social security system following monthlong transportation and public service strikes.

Then in 2006, Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin was forced to drop a controversial employment law after the bill had been adopted by Parliament, due to massive demonstrations.

Now, even though Mr. Macron’s pension reform bill has all but become law – it still needs to go through the Constitutional Court to ensure its legality – protesters feel that it is not too late to change the government’s mind.

“If we do nothing, what does it mean? That we accept this? No, we don’t,” says protester Louis Tocqueville. “The reality is, Macron is all alone. But a country can’t govern itself alone.”

Even though the protests against the pension reform have not yet been as disruptive as the 2018 Yellow Vest movement, they have drawn high numbers. In the last 30 years, according to data from the Interior Ministry, few issues have brought more than 1 million protesters out onto the streets at once. This year’s protests have already done so at least four times.

But it may not be enough to get the government’s attention, says Mr. Tournier, the political scientist, since the current French landscape is much different from revolutionary times.

“People always look to May ’68 as a reference, but [that] was like a civil war,” says Oleg Kobtzeff, a professor of history and political science at the American University of Paris. “All the stores and banks were closed, there was no gas available, the streets were empty. The country was completely paralyzed.

“Students were saying, it’s time for a Marxist revolution. There were rumors that demonstrators were going to take power by force and this was going to become a revolution. Macron is ready to take the risk, but the same thing is not going to happen again. I think now, people will get progressively tired and Macron is counting on that.”

No easy options

But protesters aren’t driven solely by the issue of retirement reform. It is also how the government chose to enact it: through the use of Article 49.3 of the constitution, which bypasses a vote by Parliament. Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne has used the article 11 times since May 2022 – its most frequent invocation by a prime minister in more than 20 years – even though it is considered by many French people as a last-resort tactic and an abuse of power.

And frustrations over 49.3 come on top of broader feelings of discontent among the French public, which has seen public services like schools and hospitals deteriorate and inflation and energy costs rise under Mr. Macron. In addition, although Mr. Macron promised upon his reelection in 2022 that he would unite a fractured France, he has been criticized for his arrogance and top-down leadership style.

Mr. Macron told the French public last week during a television interview that he was willing to “shoulder the unpopularity” of the reform and had only the general interest of the country in mind. But the protests have already begun having an effect. Last weekend, Britain’s King Charles III postponed his visit to France due to security concerns, after several nights of violent demonstrations across the country.

“It’s certainly not good for the image of France to have long periods of strikes or protests,” says Douglas Webber, professor emeritus of political science at INSEAD. “But if he gives in now, it will give the impression abroad that he’s weak or vulnerable to strikes and this will affect his credibility vis-à-vis European governments and financial markets. He has no easy options.”

While protesters and the government remain deadlocked, a new round of demonstrations has been planned for next Thursday. For protesters at Bastille, there’s no chance of stepping back now, even if they don’t know exactly what will come of their fight.

“This is about more than just the retirement reform now. People are enraged and we need radical change,” says university student Iulia A., who didn’t want to fully identity herself for fear that her political views could affect her future ability to find a job.

“All of these previous protests, the generations before us, is what inspires us. Their capacity to not give up,” says fellow student Thomas G. “We know that what we need to do now is disrupt the country as much as possible.”