Drafted at the DMV? Military conscription goes digital in Russia.

In Russia, it used to be that to get called up for military service, an eligible recruit had to be issued a draft summons in person. Not anymore.

Under a new law rushed through the State Duma with almost no publicity and signed by President Vladimir Putin last month, potential recruits can be called up through the popular Gosuslugi network, a heavily digitized state services bureaucracy that most Russians use to obtain basic documents, from driver’s licenses to death certificates.

Some observers perceive the coming of a “1984”-like total surveillance society, a “digital gulag” in which every element of life will be overseen, recorded, indexed, and, if necessary, punished. Focusing on the military implications, many fear the haste in implementing the new system foretells that another wave of mobilization is in the offing, perhaps as early as September.

The government denies any intention to launch a fresh mobilization of manpower for the Ukraine war. Even so, the permanent institutionalization of a modern, highly efficient database of the estimated 25 million Russian men of military age who are eligible for call-up bespeaks a new official attitude that Russia needs to prepare for a long-term confrontation with the West that is likely to outlast the current conflict in Ukraine.

“We are approaching a state of digital authoritarianism, of total control all around. With this new draft system, we are almost there,” says Andrei Kolesnikov, an expert with the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center who is still working in Moscow. “Potential military recruits will now need to fear being caught by cameras in the metro, or by visiting a doctor, or almost any public activity. You can easily see the broader applications, beyond the military draft. The sphere of private life is shrinking. ... Putin and his elites are preparing people for a longer and wider war. They don’t hide this.”

Clarifying the system?

The breakneck effort to digitize military lists was prompted by the pandemonium that attended last September’s announcement of a partial mobilization of 300,000 men to bolster the ranks of Russia’s troops in Ukraine after a series of military setbacks last summer.

Russia had not conducted such a mobilization in over 40 years and the indiscriminate methods of ham-handed bureaucrats trying to implement the order triggered social panic. Hundreds of thousands of military-age men fled the country, though many have since returned. Large numbers who weren’t even eligible for the limited mobilization that the Kremlin had outlined were scooped up by military recruiters, disrupting their lives. Even though most were later released by the courts, the social scars remain livid.

Even some anti-war activists say the digital draft system is a rational step that would limit the social trauma of conscription and mobilization by clearly identifying those who are subject to call-up and letting everyone else breathe easy.

“This law would be fine, if not for the war,” says Vadim, a consultant with the Russian Movement of Conscientious Objectors who doesn’t want his family name used. “There was disorder in the military registry, and now the state is imposing order, albeit in a tough and forceful manner.”

He compares it to paying taxes. The rights and obligations of the citizen should be spelled out clearly, as well as the penalties for disobeying. In the military context, Russian law provides the right of a citizen to perform alternative service instead of being drafted into the army. If that right were encoded, and respected, it would clarify each citizen’s choices, he says.

Last year more than 1,000 men were prosecuted for draft evasion in Russia, far more than in any previous year. But Vadim says that none of the conscientious objectors backed by his movement has so far been punished by authorities.

“For us, we don’t oppose the system on principle, although against the background of war, it looks monstrous. We’ll be monitoring it to see how it’s implemented in practice,” he says. “That’s what matters.”

No more evasion

The new system aims to cut down on draft evasion by identifying and locating the person with a variety of high-tech means. It will track potential recruits by integrating with all existing government and law enforcement systems, including medical records, tax records, and street cameras with facial recognition.

Once a draft notice is issued via the Gosuslugi network, the onus will be on the recruit to report within 20 days. Anyone who fails to show up will be barred from leaving the country and banned from using virtually all state services. They will even be barred from driving a car.

Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, says it’s just a long-overdue modernization of an antiquated system.

“The unplanned mobilization last September led to a lot of well-known problems, most of which were totally avoidable,” he says. “So Putin gave the order to remake that old system, which was last updated in the 1960s, and make it suitable for the coming decades. This should work not only to simplify conscription and possible mobilization, but for a range of other things, such as natural disasters. ... You can call it a ‘digital gulag’ all you like, but in a few years this is going to be happening everywhere. Every viable society is going to be doing this. It’s a database of all the people. That improves the delivery of state services for all purposes.”

Mr. Markov denies that the haste in implementing the new draft system indicates that a fresh wave of mobilization is in the offing. He says the Kremlin has decided, for now, to rely on volunteers to replenish the ranks. It recently launched a massive new advertising campaign aimed at inducing young men to sign up.

That softer approach to raising manpower could be due to sensitivity about public opinion, which may not be as solidly behind the war as opinion polls suggest. Mr. Kolesnikov points out that presidential elections are due in 2024, and Mr. Putin may wish to see some kind of conclusion to the war before then.

“Society can become overburdened by authorities’ actions, though it’s hard to predict the breaking point,” Mr. Kolesnikov says. “Putin is preparing for elections. He may not be willing to repeat past mistakes. Perhaps mobilization will occur, but not so openly as before.”

But the “digital draft” is being put in place very rapidly. Mr. Markov says that’s in case Russia fails on the Ukrainian battlefield in the next few months. If not, the system will be a permanent fixture of Russian life to serve the state in any future emergency that arises.

“These are preparations for living in a dangerous world,” he says. “Everyone is talking about Ukrainian offensives. If they succeed, Russia’s response will be total mobilization, and this is part of that short-term calculation. Otherwise, we know that Russia is going to be in a state of confrontation with the West for many years to come, so we need to start preparing for that.”