Wagner mercenary revolt: Could it help Ukraine?

Two days after mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin led his Wagner fighters in a convoy toward Moscow and then retreated, one of the most important questions raised by his action remains what effect – if any – it will have on the war in Ukraine. 

The most likely answer is that it may not make much of a difference – at least, not yet. Ukraine’s counteroffensive to liberate the fifth of its territory still under Russian occupation is so far carrying on with little change. In that context Saturday’s act might end up more of a sideshow than main event.

No Russian military units on the Ukrainian lines turned to rush to Moscow’s defense Friday or Saturday. There was no pause in Russian missile salvos as Ukrainian forces continued to inch forward.

The unknown factor remains longer term effects. Battlefield morale, for instance, may tip even more toward Ukraine’s favor, as Russian troops learn more about the infighting and dysfunction among their leaders.

The loss of Wagner regiments – with individual mercenaries integrating into the Russian military – could deprive Russia of some of its most effective units, just as Ukraine’s counteroffensive lurches into gear.

Overall the weekend’s events were a reminder that the effect of the fighting isn’t only about the battlefield. It’s about applying pressure on an enemy, and hoping that the enemy cracks, on the front or hundreds of miles behind it.

“Optimism! Of course, we see some optimism,” says Taras Semeniuk, an international affairs analyst based in Kyiv. “Ukrainians interpreted this as, if Prigozhin can do this today, then tomorrow another battalion can do the same.”

Putin’s “chef”

Mr. Prigozhin initially came to power as a caterer in the Kremlin, earning under-the-table contracts and eventually the nickname “Putin’s chef.” Even after emerging as the leader of Wagner, which the Russian government refused to acknowledge for years, he never gave interviews. It was hard to even find his picture.

The war in Ukraine brought out Mr. Prigozhin’s public side. Early on, he was recorded recruiting prisoners to accept contracts with his mercenary force to fight on the front lines. During the almost yearlong siege of Bakhmut, which Wagner forces brutally prosecuted, Mr. Prigozhin posted videos, recordings, and statements on the popular social app Telegram – an influencer for the wartime age.

Mr. Prigozhin visited the front, dressed in fatigues, and cast himself as an anti-elite everyman. He would post videos of brutal actions and, ever more often, rants against the Russian military establishment, in particular Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and chief of the general staff, Valery Gerasimov. 

A week ago, Mr. Prigozhin publicly flouted the Russian narrative of its war in Ukraine, saying it was meant to enrich corrupt elites, not fight Ukrainian fascists. On Saturday, they began their march, reportedly shooting down Russian aircraft that attacked them and killing around a dozen pilots. 

Mr. Putin, who reportedly had been warned by Russian intelligence of Wagner’s intentions in advance, then released an emergency video statement. This was “mutiny” and “treason,” he said, a “stab in the back to our country.”

Hours later, he seemed to give the mutineers a life raft. The deal purportedly negotiated gives Wagner soldiers who participated immunity, those who didn’t the chance to re-enlist with the Russian military, and it allows Mr. Prigozhin to leave for Belarus. Russian state outlets have since reported that a criminal case into him will not be dropped. Any deal, regardless of its formality, may mean little for Mr. Prigozhin’s safety.

View from Ukraine

Ukrainian soldiers on the front line watched the extraordinary events in Russia with glee, says Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian minister of defense and now the director of the Center for Defense Strategies, a think tank in Kyiv.

“Their reaction was like very, very sarcastic amusement, because obviously, when you see your enemy fighting each other, it’s always something which you find very weird,” he says.

One Ukrainian drone commander who goes by the call sign Magyar produced a video of himself sitting on the back of a military vehicle, eating popcorn while watching news reports about the Russian insurrection on his iPad. Behind him, U.S.-supplied Javelin anti-tank missile canisters were also overflowing with popcorn.

The image went viral, and popcorn-themed memes soon spread across Ukrainian social media; a popular Ukrainian food delivery service tweeted that it was seeing an increased demand for popcorn from customers. “Is someone watching the news?” the post mocked.

Throughout the war, memes have proven to be a vital tool in maintaining Ukrainian civilian and military morale.

But the longer term implications of Mr. Prigozhin’s mutiny for Russia’s war in Ukraine are still unclear to most people here.

“It’s important to understand that this story is not over,” says Mr. Zagorodnyuk. “I think there will be more bold moves. We’ll have to wait and see.”

Washington’s take

Offering a deal at all might make Mr. Putin look weak. 

“Putin clearly has been shown to be weak so he’s going to need to crack down,” says Evelyn Farkas, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Russia and Ukraine.

She expects investigations and prosecutions against Russian military leaders seen chumming with Wagner rebels in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don.

Mr. Prigozhin survived an armed march toward Moscow. Afterward, he exited Rostov-on-Don en route to Belarus to a near hero’s farewell. Citizens shook his hand and took photos. He smiled, sitting shotgun in a military vehicle. 

“Prigozhin tapped into something very real,” says Ms. Farkas. 

That something was alienation with the war, she says, which apparently has an audience even among the military.

On the front, it’s difficult to know how much information is reaching Russian soldiers, says Catherine Sendak, a former high-level Defense Department official on Russia and Ukraine. So don’t expect a collapsing, demoralized front. 

But Mr. Prigozhin’s “getting handshakes and selfies,” says Ms. Sendak, now with the Center for European Policy Analysis. “So something is bleeding through Russian society.”

Meanwhile, the Russian military is bleeding troops. Wagner is one of multiple mercenary groups fighting against Ukraine, but it’s the largest. According to estimates, it has some 25,000 troops, including an elite of 5,000, who helped seize Bakhmut, the last victory Moscow can boast in its campaign. 

With Wagner’s dissolution, it will be difficult to mix the former mercenaries into the rank and file. For one, the soldiers-for-hire include a large share of convicts fighting in exchange for commuted sentences. For another, it’s hard to trust comrades who just led a near coup.

“Will they be effective without Prigozhin there in the field, in the trenches with them?” asks Ms. Farkas, now head of the McCain Institute, a think tank at Arizona State University. “The fact that it’s an open question is, of course, positive for Ukraine, because those were battle hardened, brutal fighters.”

“Wounded duck”

In a report Sunday, the Institute for the Study of War said it was too early to define what concrete impacts Mr. Prigozhin’s failed rebellion and the Kremlin’s apparent weaknesses could have on the war in Ukraine.

However, it noted that “the resolution of the events of June 23 and 24 … will likely substantially damage Putin’s government and the Russian war effort in Ukraine.”

Mr. Putin looks like a “wounded duck,” says Mr. Semeniuk. The view from Ukraine at this time is that “he does not show that he has the power now to manage his country.”

Ukraine, meanwhile, announced Sunday that its much-anticipated counteroffensive that started quietly several weeks ago is continuing in the south and east. The fight to win back more land taken by Russia was proving to be a slow and bloody grind, but on Sunday, Ukraine claimed to have retaken several more villages as it continued to push the Russian troops back in small increments.

“Essentially Ukraine just simply moved on” as the world focused on the news from Russia, Mr. Zagorodnyuk says.