How history led three countries to recognize a Palestinian state

When three European countries formally recognize Palestinian statehood next week, little will change on the ground in Gaza. But for the governments of Ireland, Norway, and Spain, that’s not the point. 

Precisely at a time when peace seems furthest away, the largely symbolic announcement stands as a desperate call to revive the two-state solution seen by most of the international community as paramount to future peace between Israel and a Palestinian state.

The move is considered premature by the United States and most other European countries. They maintain that lasting peace requires a negotiated agreement first. But the move by Ireland, Norway, and Spain − reflecting in part their own cultural and historic sensibilities − is part of growing condemnation of Israel for its war conduct in Gaza, and a matter of what they consider moral urgency.

“It is very likely that the war in Gaza will eventually be seen as one of the darkest episodes of the 21st century,” said Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez this week. “When that moment comes, I want the Spanish people to be able to say with their heads held high that they were on the right side of history.”

Breaking from most Western countries that demand a successful peace process in order to recognize a Palestinian state, Ireland, Norway, and Spain have “turned the logic around,” says Jørgen Jensehaugen, a senior researcher at the Peace Research Institute in Oslo. More European countries are expected to follow. “Now, there is the recognition that there is no peace process, and hope is almost gone,” he says. “So we need to try something to revive hope.”

It’s another blow to Israel, which has grown increasingly isolated on the world stage. On Friday, the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to “immediately halt” its offensive in Rafah in southern Gaza. That follows the announcement earlier this week by the International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor that he is applying for arrest warrants for three Hamas leaders as well as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. 

Israel responded to the joint announcement by Ireland, Norway, and Spain by recalling its ambassadors from the three countries. Mr. Netanyahu called the move a “reward for terrorism.”

The three countries condemned Hamas’ brutal Oct. 7 attack on Israel that sparked the war, and they emphasized the importance of building a Palestinian state with the Palestinian Authority, not Hamas, which the U.S., the United Kingdom, and others consider a terrorist organization.

“Recognizing the state of Palestine sends a message that there’s a viable alternative to the nihilism of Hamas. Hamas has nothing to offer but pain and suffering to Israelis and Palestinians alike,” said Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris at a press conference this week.

A reflection of history

Ireland’s position, like that of Spain and Norway, is guided by history. 

Ireland has long underscored its solidarity with independence based on its centurieslong experience of British occupation. That “direct and sustained experience of imperialism” has “undoubtedly shaped” how the Irish people view the Palestinian issue, says Jane Ohlmeyer, professor of modern history at Trinity College Dublin.

Norway has seen itself as an important player in international peace processes, and especially as a mediator of peace between Israel and Palestinians. It hosted the meetings leading up to the 1993 Oslo Accords, a framework that ultimately fell apart. 

Spain, too, has historically built ties with the Arab world, including the Palestinians, dating back to post-World War II. Spain was barred from joining the United Nations because of former Spanish dictator Francisco Franco’s links to Nazi Germany, says Isaías Barreñada Bajo, professor of international relations at the Complutense University of Madrid, and instead turned to Latin America and the Arab world for diplomatic relations. Spain didn’t establish diplomatic relations with Israel until 1986, after joining the European Economic Community. (Over two dozen countries, primarily Arab nations, have never recognized Israel as a state.)

Today, Spain sees itself as uniquely positioned to play a peacemaking role in the region because of its geographic proximity and ties to both sides, says Dr. Barreñada.

While these three governments have been vocal in their support of Palestinian rights, “they’re also responding to publics who are [calling] for such steps,” says Hugh Lovatt, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Palestinian statehood was supported by 78% of those polled in a recent Spanish survey.

A growing recognition

With the vast majority of military support for Israel coming from the U.S. and Germany, the recognition is unlikely to affect the current course of the war, however. And some worry it could undermine their government’s ability to help broker a long-term peace solution.  

“I would have liked such a sensitive decision to be taken only when there is a consensus built with precision and care” among the biggest global powers most involved in the conflict, says Diego Garrocho Salcedo, professor of moral philosophy at the Autonomous University of Madrid.

“All well-intentioned people want a just and lasting peace in the Middle East,” he adds. “Disagreement arises in the nuances about how, when, and through which actors we can achieve that.” 

Still, the three acted amid a growing recognition of Palestinian statehood. Earlier this month, the United Nations General Assembly overwhelmingly backed a Palestinian bid for U.N. membership, a status that is only open to states. Around the world, 140 countries recognize a Palestinian state already; in Europe, that includes only Sweden and a handful of Eastern European countries.

The three-way announcement this week points to the power these countries see in numbers. It’s unlike Sweden’s unilateral recognition of Palestinian statehood in 2014, which had little impact. Slovenia, Belgium, and Malta have indicated they are considering similar announcements. 

“The countries that sign up for this will carry more and more weight collectively,” says Linda Robinson, senior fellow at the Council for Foreign Relations in Washington. “We’re at a moment of moral crisis. ... People feel they have to be very clear on the morality of how this war is being conducted and what they can and can’t support.”