If the far right wins France’s elections, what would that actually mean?

German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche once said that the greatest amount of happiness comes from living life with a maximum amount of danger and risk.

French President Emmanuel Macron seems to have taken that advice to heart. Last week, Mr. Macron took the ultimate political risk, announcing the dissolution of parliament and snap elections at the end of the month. This, after his center-right Renaissance party finished a distant second in the European Union elections to the far-right National Rally (RN) party, fronted by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella.

Now, France is looking at a potential “co-habitation” – a power-sharing government run by two opposing camps. If RN wins an outright majority after the second round of voting on July 7, Mr. Macron would be obligated to name Mr. Bardella as his prime minister.

But in doing so, the president would be stripped of much of his power, stuck in only the fourth co-habitation in French history and the first ever parliamentary leadership for the far right.

Mr. Macron is banking on the hope that if he forces the French to choose between him and the far right, they will choose him. But his popularity has plummeted since his election in 2017, from his handling of the Yellow Vest protests to his defiant implementation of a highly unpopular pension reform bill. Some observers are calling his latest move political suicide.

With so much running against him, why is Mr. Macron risking it all, and what is at stake if his strategy fails?

“The situation in France is dramatic,” says Roger Sue, a professor emeritus of sociology at Université Paris Cité. “Whether it’s the right or left that wins, we don’t know, but it’s almost a guarantee that Macron’s party will not win a majority. So he’s gambled with his own team’s future while he gets to remain at the center of the game. I find that rather unforgivable.”

Checks and balances

The results of last Sunday’s European elections saw RN leading with 31% of the vote, and Mr. Macron’s Renaissance party trailing at 14%. The Socialists, with the charismatic Raphaël Glucksmann at the helm, pulled in 13% percent.

But even as reactions from the political class came pouring in, the results were no surprise – least of all to Mr. Macron. Pre-election polling had predicted a strong result by RN, leaving the president ample time to strategize. So while his announcement shocked the French public, observers say it’s all part of a carefully hedged plan, and one that keeps him in a relative power position.

“Mr. Macron did this for two reasons: for the general interest of the French people and for his own personal interests,” says Thomas Guénolé, a French political scientist. “If he wins, his party has the majority and can pass laws. If [the far right] wins, he can still block bills. ... In any case, he’s probably thinking his risk is minimal: he is still the president until 2027.”

In practical terms, if the far right succeeds in winning an outright majority in parliament, Mr. Bardella and his government will hold most of the cards.

Mr. Macron would still control France’s use of nuclear weapons and be in charge of international dossiers, like Russia’s war in Ukraine. But he would have minimal power over the military, and would not be able to dissolve the parliament again for another year.

Mr. Macron would also lose his ability to set domestic policy. A far-right parliament could be expected to overturn the current budget bill, which looks to cut $25 billion in public spending to address the country’s spiraling deficit. It also could reverse bills like Mr. Macron’s pension reform – moving the retirement age from 64 back down to 60 – as well as tighten immigration and security laws.

While technically Mr. Macron could refuse to sign RN bills into law, the prime minister holds a trump card: a procedure set out by Article 49, clause 3 of the French Constitution (aka “49.3”) which allows the government to elevate a bill straight into law, bypassing a parliamentary vote. Using 49.3, Mr. Bardella would be able to overcome Mr. Macron’s attempts to stop a bill from becoming law.

Still, the French government is subject to checks and balances – if fewer than a less centralized governmental system like the United States. There is a cap on the number of times a prime minister can use 49.3, and the government can be removed if the president calls for – and wins – a vote of no confidence in the National Assembly, France’s lower house of parliament.

In 1997, President Jacques Chirac and Prime Minister Lionel Jospin were forced to work together during their five year-long co-habitation. Despite their differences and predictions of political paralysis, Mr. Jospin avoided any moves that would have spurred Mr. Chirac to dissolve the Assembly and win back parliament.

If Mr. Bardella is elected prime minister, “it would be in his best interest to exercise moderation,” says Gilles Ivaldi, a researcher on the far right at Sciences Po’s CEVIPOV. “He’s in a complicated position. His supporters expect radical change on buying power and immigration. But he also needs to prove that he can effectively lead the country as he looks to pursue a presidential bid in 2027.”

Fired-up parties

That excitement about a future Bardella presidency could incite more far-right supporters – who historically enjoy stronger voter turnout than their more moderate counterparts – to head to the polls.

But the French left has been inspired to fight, too. Since Mr. Macron’s shock announcement, left-wing leaders like Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Socialist leader Mr. Glucksmann have banded together to create a united coalition, in hopes of fending off a far-right win.

Meanwhile, some conservative members of parliament have followed their party leader, Eric Ciotti, into an alliance with the RN, breaking a hitherto strict taboo on aligning with the extreme right.

Voters may, in the end, choose the vote utile (useful vote) – by selecting whichever party they see as the lesser of two evils.

“Macron knows he’s not popular but for him, it’s the elections that count,” says Mr. Guénolé. “There is a big difference between how people say they will vote and how they actually do. … Macron is gambling on the fact that if pushed up against a wall, the French will make the right decision.”