Scottish identity is in. Scotland’s nationalist party is (likely) out. Why the disparity?

Growing up in this working-class city of 600,000, Sophie Johnson has long wanted her Scotland to be independent from the United Kingdom.

So impassioned was she that, at 16 years old, Ms. Johnson and her older sister were regular fixtures at Scottish pro-independence rallies. One gathering became a face-off against a sea of British unionists, who were amassing in a public square in Glasgow. Ms. Johnson and her older sister planted themselves in the middle along with a Scottish flag.

The mob shouted abuse and threw bottles at the young women, prompting the police to remove them for their own safety. But ultimately the police arrested the Johnson sisters for obstruction.

The incident went viral, and the sisters became a symbol of Scottish independence. “It was a very exciting time, and there was a lot of emotion,” says Ms. Johnson.

The independence movement that rallied people like Ms. Johnson a decade ago has plateaued since the defeat of the 2014 referendum by a 55% to 45% vote. The Scottish National Party – whose leaders had put forth that referendum – is losing its once-unchallenged grip on power after being battered by a cost-of-living crisis and a series of leadership changes and scandals. The Labour Party is projected to knock the SNP out of the majority of Scotland’s seats in the July 4 parliamentary elections, potentially reducing the SNP to just a quarter of its current total.

Yet at the same time, more Scots today think of their identity as Scottish than as British – 72%, a jump of 15 points from 2012. With another independence referendum unlikely anytime soon, and the SNP significantly weakened, the movement will need to find a new way forward. That future may end up being one separate from political parties, as their utility for the movement has proved limited.

“The SNP is the big 800-pound gorilla in the nationalist movement. It dwarfs everybody else,” says Murray Leith, a social scientist at the University of the West of Scotland. “There’s no doubt that when the SNP does less well, it will have an impact on the fortunes of the independence movement. It will have an impact on people’s positivity, but [the movement] is not going to go away.”

“The movement for independence needs to adjust”

After the 2014 referendum failed, Ms. Johnson vacillated between hope and disappointment, cycling through those emotions over and over. She thought another referendum might be around the corner. It wasn’t. Ultimately, it became clear the movement had lost steam after multiple failed attempts to get a second referendum and the declining fortunes of the SNP.

“I went through a long period of sadness about it all, because it was quite crushing. We’d been so, so close,” says Ms. Johnson of the 2014 referendum, which drew a turnout of 85%.

Ms. Johnson came to feel that SNP leaders weren’t committed to pushing through on independence, as their strategies seemed nonsensical or impractical. The party curried favor with big business and institutions – for example, via policies to keep British sterling and to stay in NATO – instead of making the breaks required to achieve independence. But she has remained involved with pro-independence organizations while she pursues a master’s in Scottish history.

Ray James, a former SNP branch officer, shares Ms. Johnson’s doubts. “The SNP was interested in using the ‘yes’ [to independence] movements and the independence campaign for its own political ends – it was the horse they used to get them into power and to keep power,” says Mr. James, who is now running for Parliament as a member of the pro-independence Alba Party.

Without the party as its North Star, the independence movement is left asking where to go next, says Michael Heaney, a political scientist at the University of Glasgow. “The idea that the movement will have to work outside the SNP is very hard for people to wrap their minds around, but they’re starting to do it. It doesn’t mean the cause for independence is weaker. It just needs a new strategy.”

Part of the problem is that movements in Scotland are used to attaching themselves to a party. That’s unlike in the United States, where there’s a culture of organizing, says Dr. Heaney. “In America, there’s all these movements and interest groups and lots of ways to pressure the government from the outside,” he says, pointing to Black Lives Matter as a force that pushed police departments to change their treatment of Black Americans.

“In the United Kingdom, it’s much more that your politics gets channeled into the party,” he says. “The Scottish National Party is going through some hard times, and the movement for independence needs to adjust to that.”

An inclusive sense of identity

Meanwhile, the closer people feel to their Scottish identities, the more likely they are to support independence.

“People are feeling a strong Scottish identity. So they want Scotland to be independent,” says Dr. Heaney. “Scottish identity really drives, really drives this movement to a large degree.”

There’s a lot about Scottish identity to be proud of, analysts say. Scotland has a distinctive canon of literature, folk music, and strong traditions that are shared by many.

“Scotland has a very significantly identifiable culture, and it’s a very positive one,” says Dr. Leith. “Nationalism – especially right-wing nationalism – comes with very negative connotations. But Scottish nationalism is a left-wing, progressive, and inclusive sense of identity. The official argument in Scotland is that if you live here and you find yourself to be Scottish, you can be Scottish.”

That includes Britons, refugees, and people of all ethnicities, says Dr. Leith. The recently former leader of the SNP, Humza Yousaf, was born to Pakistani immigrants.

And that Scottish identity might be the simmering force that continues to drive independence.

Billy Kerr wants independence “because I want my own identity.”

“I was born in Scotland. I want Scotland just to be Scotland. We don’t need England. Ireland did it no problem,” says Mr. Kerr, who worked in communications in Glasgow before caring for his mother full time.

Conversely, Scots who don’t support Scottish independence are more likely to see themselves as both Scottish and British. Musician Neil Primrose says, “I feel very Scottish. I feel very British. I feel very wanting to be part of the world. But I don’t sit back and go, ‘I’m just Scottish.’”

Ultimately, the independence movement’s next steps could be to separate the question of independence from political parties. That could help activists attract a wider population to the cause.

“It’s not about the SNP as the standard-bearer anymore,” says Dr. Leith. “People feel a very strong sense of Scottish national identity, but that doesn’t automatically translate into a specific vote, either for the party or for the constitutional question.”