Prisoner swap with Russia frees Americans – and raises hopes for future diplomacy

The unprecedented prisoner exchange that freed Americans Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan from Russian imprisonment early Thursday marks the culmination of years of complex, on-and-off negotiations amid steadily worsening U.S.-Russia relations.

Mr. Gershkovich, a Wall Street Journal reporter, and Mr. Whelan, an ex-U.S. Marine in Russian custody since 2018, were among 26 prisoners from the United States, Russia, Belarus, Germany, Poland, Norway, and Slovenia who were freed in the exchange facilitated by Turkey.

It was the largest East-West prisoner exchange since the end of the Cold War, and the first since Russia and the U.S. exchanged basketball star Brittney Griner for Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout in December 2022.

From the State Dining Room and surrounded by family members of the released Americans Thursday afternoon, President Joe Biden hailed the prisoner exchange as a “feat of diplomacy,” underscoring the “friendship” of “many countries” that played key roles in the painstaking negotiations.

The exchange offered a glimmer of hope for tundra-cold East-West relations – in particular the frigid links between Washington and Moscow – demonstrating that diplomacy between the two sides can still advance when both see it in their interest.

“That’s very hopeful, since there is a long list of urgent problems that might benefit from more constructive diplomacy between Russia and the U.S.,” including Ukraine and arms control, says Russian political analyst Alexey Mukhin, director of the independent Center for Political Information in Moscow.

Moreover, a swap that returns to Russian soil a number of operatives and intelligence officers convicted on a variety of charges in the West underscores the price Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to pay to repatriate jailed Russian agents. In particular, Mr. Putin got back from Germany Vadim Krasikov, a professional hit man he was keen to see back in the fold.

“That’s key to sustaining the morale of their operatives,” former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt wrote on the social platform X Thursday.

A prickly but successful negotiation

That the exchange was mediated by Turkey made it reminiscent of Turkish-led diplomacy in 2022 that led to a Black Sea grain deal between Russia and Ukraine, just months after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As with the prisoner swap, the grain deal worked because both sides keenly wanted it.

That deal allowed Ukrainian grains to transit safely through Turkish ports to global markets, while Russia was guaranteed market access for its fertilizers and grains.

Just before Mr. Biden’s statement, Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed in a midday statement that three “wrongfully detained” Americans – Mr. Whelan, Mr. Gershkovich, and Radio Free Europe journalist Alsu Kurmasheva – were on their way back to the U.S.

He thanked officials across the U.S. government, European allies, and specifically Turkey for paving the way to the swap. The Americans are expected to be back in the U.S. with their families by Friday.

The White House had hinted Wednesday that something was in the works when press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in response to a question about a rumored deal, “We do not negotiate in public. We cannot negotiate in public because we want to make sure we can get the job done.”

If nothing else, that suggested negotiations were indeed ongoing – a positive sign in otherwise desultory U.S.-Russian relations.

Indeed, diplomatic contacts between Russia and the U.S. have been tenuous at best in recent years, deteriorating to new post-Cold War lows in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

President Biden and Mr. Putin last met in Geneva in June 2021, but since the invasion of Ukraine, White House officials have suggested every effort was being made to avoid direct contact between the two leaders at international meetings that both were attending.

“Not Russia’s problem anymore”

But carrying out a complex exchange such as this one suggests that reliable back channels are still working. “If this is true, it means that Russia is not completely isolated and is still able to conduct serious negotiations with Western countries,” says Mr. Mukhin, the Russian political analyst. “It also sends a positive message to the Russian public, that the Kremlin is able to deal with the West and bring home Russians who were imprisoned abroad.”

Mr. Mukhin says it’s a plus for the Kremlin to release high-profile political prisoners like Vladimir Kara-Murza and Ilya Yashin, whose imprisonment has been a constant source of bad publicity.

“The death of Alexei Navalny in a Russian prison earlier this year attracted so much negative attention in the midst of Putin’s reelection campaign, and was seen as a big problem for the Kremlin,” he says. “Sending these people out to the West just reduces the complications.”

Noting for example that Mr. Kara-Murza is known to be quite ill, he says, “If he were to die in a Russian prison, it would be another bad story. Letting them go means they are not Russia’s problem anymore.”

“Our alliances make our people safer”

Mr. Whelan’s liberation is particularly sweet for Mr. Biden, since he has cited his case as a priority since taking office. Even amid the euphoria of the exchange that freed Ms. Griner, Mr. Biden said his one regret was that the deal did not include Mr. Whelan.

On Thursday, Mr. Biden also took the opportunity to point out how the prisoner exchange underscores the value of America’s alliances – and to allow himself a subtle dig at those who denigrate those alliances as a burden.

The truth, Mr. Biden said, is that the exchange “would not have been possible without our allies.”

Presumably alluding to former President Donald Trump, who often questions U.S. alliances as expensive one-way streets, Mr. Biden said, “If anyone would question if allies matter, they do. Our alliances make our people safer.” He added, “We saw that again today.”

Mr. Biden offered a special shoutout to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who had to make the difficult decision to free Mr. Krasikov, convicted of a high-profile hit in Germany, in order for the deal to work for Russia.

In his statement confirming the prisoner release, Secretary Blinken joined Mr. Biden in noting amid the jubilation that more work remains to be done.

“My pledge to the families of those still separated from their families is the same that I made to those returning home today,” he said. “We will not forget you, and we will not rest until you see your loved ones again.” 

Special correspondent Fred Weir reported from Moscow.

Editor's note: The original version misstated where in the White House President Biden spoke about the negotiations.