Libya elections: Can internal conflict move from bullets to ballots?

It was not the turning of the page that many had hoped for after years of conflict, but a callback to Libya’s troubled authoritarian past: a Qaddafi dressed in a distinctive brown turban and robe, addressing the nation on live television from Tripoli.

So attired, in February 2011, Muammar Qaddafi had vowed to amass an army of millions to “cleanse Libya inch by inch, house by house” of pro-democracy protesters.

This time, on Nov. 14, it was Seif al-Islam Qaddafi, the slain dictator’s son, ceremoniously registering for Libya’s first-ever presidential election on Dec. 24, and asking for the people’s vote.

Yet Mr. Qaddafi, still subject to a decade-old International Criminal Court arrest warrant for alleged war crimes, was hardly the only controversial candidate.

Gen. Khalifa Haftar – a warlord who ran eastern Libya as an independent entity, has styled himself as a strongman ruler similar to Egypt’s Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and laid siege to Tripoli just last year – announced his candidacy two days later.

The initial reaction of many Libyans who are supporting the elections was: Well, that’s democracy.

But the question of who is and isn’t allowed to run has quickly become a new battleground in Libya – politically, and potentially, militarily.

Much is riding on these elections, part of a political road map devised last year by the United Nations, Europe, and the United States after warring factions in the country’s east and west deadlocked. They were designed to unite a nation that has been divided by rival governments, foreign mercenaries, and proxy-warfare for most of the last decade.

Yet like much in Libya, whether someone is a democrat or a war criminal, or should be allowed to run, depends on whom you ask.

“Recipe for controversy”

Dozens of individuals and groups are filing legal challenges against rival candidates, derailing several campaigns and threatening to unravel the polls themselves.

Late last week Libya’s electoral commission struck Mr. Qaddafi from the ballot as “ineligible,” following a motion by a Tripoli military prosecutor who cited his conviction in absentia by a Libyan court in 2015 for war crimes committed as part of his father’s 2011 crackdown.

Mr. Qaddafi’s lawyer sought to appeal the ruling, but an attack by gunmen allegedly loyal to a rival candidate prevented the attempt.

On Sunday, interim Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, a leading candidate, was ruled ineligible for violating the election law by not resigning his post prior to the polls. Efforts are underway to challenge Mr. Haftar’s candidacy over the Tripoli siege.

The elections were slated to coincide with the 70th anniversary of Libya’s independence, and a broad array of political factions supports this democratic initiative, which could put Libya under one leader for the first time since a NATO-assisted revolution overthrew the elder Mr. Qaddafi in 2011.

But observers caution that claims of voter fraud or irregularities, which have already led some to pick up arms once again, could plunge the country back into conflict.

“These elections are potentially transformative in the sense that Libya’s fundamental political structure would change, but they are a recipe for controversy in the way the election has been framed and who can and cannot run,” says Claudia Gazzini, a senior Libya analyst for the International Crisis Group. “It’s a big risk.”

Nearly 100 candidates registered for the presidential elections, organized by a hastily passed electoral law and without a clear vetting process. Most are expected to stay on the ballot, to be decided by 2.8 million registered voters across the country.

With so many candidates fracturing the vote among so few voters, a few hundred votes here or there could catapult one candidate or deny another from entering the second round.

Qaddafi in question

And Mr. Qaddafi’s candidacy offered a cautionary tale.

Some tribes and members of the Libyan public – wary of post-revolution corruption and violence – hoped that a reformed Mr. Qaddafi, who had not been seen in public until registering as a candidate this month, would offer an alternative to revolutionaries in the western half of the country and the autocratic Mr. Haftar in the east.

Other Libyans said the Quran-quoting younger Mr. Qaddafi looked every bit a “person that was religiously cleansed” of his past mistakes.

Yet many rejected his candidacy.

“Our general preference is for new faces to take office, but currently almost all the candidates have been under the former regime in some way or the other,” notes Wadah Alkeesh, a Libyan Red Cross worker.

Hassan Garsa, a human rights activist from Bani Waled, 100 miles southeast of Tripoli, is among those who threw their support behind the younger Mr. Qaddafi as someone they believed would “reunite Libya through reconciliation.”

He called Libyans’ accusations and the ICC warrant for Mr. Qaddafi “unfounded allegations” designed to torpedo his campaign.

Then there is the mercurial Mr. Haftar, who three years ago stated Libya was “not yet ripe for democracy.” He is now asking for Libyans’ vote one year after he laid siege to a large segment of the population. “I declare my candidacy for the presidency, not because I am chasing power but because I want to lead our people toward glory, progress, and prosperity,” he said.

Still, other Libyans are supporting newcomers, such as Hatem El-Kour, a comedian, to provide them with “a break from the current hypocrisy.”

And having General Haftar, along with other former members of the regime, vie for votes against businessmen and a comedian may be fruitful.

“For Libyans … to see these people who have dominated the past 11 years try and articulate a program, is not bad in of itself. In a way, it is cathartic,” says Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya expert and senior fellow at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime.

And if the strongmen and armed leaders fail to win large swaths of the vote, “it could be therapeutic,” he adds.

Legal framework

Not everyone is convinced, however, that the elections are being held under the right conditions.

“A new constitution should be issued first, banning … everyone from the regime from running or holding office in Libya,” says Khaled Zintani, an aviation engineer in Tripoli. “These elections should not happen because they are not fair or just.”

While the first round of presidential elections is slated for Dec. 24, the dates of the second round of presidential elections and parliamentary elections are not set. The election law does not give a mandatory time frame in which they should be held.

The eastern-Libya-based House of Representatives passed the election law without a vote, quorum, or input from many of Libya’s political factions. Due to a quirk in parliamentary procedure, it is free to amend the law at any time.

“The main problem is the lack of consensus on the legal framework for the upcoming elections since the country does not have a constitutional basis for either candidate criteria or the vote,” Alessia Melcangi, non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, writes via email. 

“A delay or failure in the electoral process could risk dragging the country back into the abyss of war.”

There has already been plenty of rule-bending and structural challenges: The number of voting stations outnumbers that of poll observers; and a de facto dividing line in the center of the country means representatives from candidates from the east or west will not be able to observe voting procedures in the other half of the country.

That leaves Libya vulnerable to accusations of vote-rigging and irregularities in rival regions – convenient for warlords and others with oversized personalities and bruised egos who are looking for blame should their election showings be less than stellar.

Some observers warn that many militia leaders may be paying lip service to the West – running on the ballot while readying their bullets for if and when the electoral process breaks down.

“They want to show they are Jeffersonian democrats, peaceful individuals who tried to serve a nation that loves them, but in the end were robbed by bad guys on the other side who rigged the elections,” says Mr. Harchaoui, the analyst.

“By claiming a conspiracy preventing them from reaching the finish line, they will have an excuse to revert to their coercive ways.”

Yet despite fears and reservations, many Libyans are hopeful about choosing their leader for the very first time.

“Of course, I will vote,” says Mr. Alkeesh, the Libyan Red Cross worker. “My vote matters, and it should for everyone else.”

A Monitor correspondent contributed reporting from Tripoli, Libya.