Aiding US on Afghanistan and Ukraine, tiny Qatar sees its star rise

As the Ukraine crisis built daily in late January, and President Joe Biden sought energy producers who might replace Russian gas supplies to Europe, he turned to his new Gulf Arab diplomatic troubleshooter: Qatar.

Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, visiting the White House, obliged. President Biden called the emir a “good friend and a reliable partner” and described Qatar as “central” to many U.S. vital interests.

The late January event, making the emir the first Gulf leader to visit the Biden White House, punctuated a remarkable turnaround for Qatar.

A little more than a year after emerging from diplomatic isolation and an economic blockade imposed by its neighbors, the tiny gas- and oil-rich country is positioning itself as a go-to partner and fixer for the Biden administration as Washington navigates diplomatic crises from Gaza to Afghanistan.

For the traditionally neutral Qatar, the new role and change of fortune highlight its determination that the key to its future security and prosperity lies with Washington. The White House, meanwhile, is signaling that it has a new Gulf Arab partner more amenable to its foreign policy goals than the United Arab Emirates and with less political baggage than Saudi Arabia.

Although Qatar alone could not substitute for Russian gas, Doha is actively campaigning for a collective effort among gas and energy-producing nations to provide an immediate stopgap solution should Moscow halt its pipeline flow.

Major non-NATO ally

The visit “shows how much the U.S. is turning to Qatar for help when it comes to serious diplomatic crises,” says Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, a Washington-based geopolitical risk firm.

“While the Biden administration seeks to retain close ties with all six GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] states, it sees Qatar as a little more aligned with the administration’s agendas,” including its multilateral, diplomacy-first approach, Mr. Cafiero adds.

It was no surprise, then, that Mr. Biden used the White House visit to designate Qatar as a major non-NATO ally and thus eligible for access to military and space technology – the 18th country to hold the distinction and the third Gulf state after Bahrain and Kuwait.

Qatar's rise comes as other traditional U.S. allies in the Gulf have fallen somewhat out of favor. The UAE, which has faced political backlash in Washington over its involvement in the Yemen war, has also been unwilling to loosen its strategic relationship with China, its largest trade partner and key investor.

Meanwhile, Mr. Biden has refused to engage directly with Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, whose widely suspected involvement in the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi has damaged his international standing. The U.S. administration sees direct cooperation with Riyadh as a political liability.

Shifting priorities

Qatar, on the other hand, has changed its geopolitical priorities in Washington's favor.

At the outbreak of the 2011 Arab Spring, Qatar saw an opportunity to shape developments across the Arab world. It bankrolled and supported Islamists, democrats, revolutionary forces, and militias in Egypt, Libya, and Syria, and its TV station, Al Jazeera, was openly critical of regional regimes.

That led its Gulf neighbors to impose a crushing economic blockade in 2017. Then-President Donald Trump initially sided with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, but changed course in 2018 and hosted Qatar’s emir in a bid to strengthen his anti-Iran push. The U.S. State Department encouraged steps toward Gulf reconciliation that eventually led to an agreement signed in Al Ula, Saudi Arabia, ending the blockade and mending ties.  

But the experience was transformative for Qatar, observers say, showing the value of multilateralism and close ties with a superpower.

“There was a realization in Doha that Washington always needs to come first and that Qatar needs to be on Washington’s side,” says Andreas Krieg, professor at King’s College London, describing Doha as “going all-in” on its U.S. alliance.   

“Qatar started looking at how and where it can support U.S. foreign policy interests,” he adds.

Areas of cooperation

The emirate started with Afghanistan; Doha has played the role of go-between for the United States and the Taliban since the Obama administration.

Qatar stepped in amid the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal in August 2021 to help ensure the safe passage of U.S. troops and citizens, operating several evacuation flights for refugees. A large number of the 7,000 Afghans still on U.S. military bases awaiting processing and resettlement are in Qatar.

With Washington yet to officially recognize the Taliban government, Qatar is currently representing U.S. interests in Afghanistan, looking after American assets and opening a consular section in its Kabul embassy, providing services for U.S. citizens.

Last month, Doha brokered an agreement with the Taliban to resume evacuation flights; Qatar Airways is one of the few airlines  operating out of the officially closed Kabul Airport.

Qatar has also mediated between Washington and Hamas, the Palestinian group that rules the Gaza Strip but which the U.S. has designated a terrorist organization. When violence between Israel and Hamas escalated into a punishing war in Gaza last year, Doha helped broker a cease-fire.

Trusted by Israel, the U.S., and the European Union, Doha is providing aid to the besieged Gaza Strip, supporting 100,000 vulnerable families through a United Nations-run voucher system, partially subsidizing the salaries of 50,000 government employees, and rehabilitating the territory’s ravaged energy and water sectors.

More durable relationship

Through its diplomatic heavy-lifting and close cooperation with the Pentagon, State Department, and White House, observers say, Qatar is seeking to institutionalize its alliance with the U.S. beyond personal relationships. That way, they say, it can withstand the whiplash of political changes in the White House and Congress.

Already, Qatar hosts the Al Udeid Air Base, the largest U.S. military facility in the Middle East, housing 11,000 service members, U.S. CENTCOM Forward Command, and the Central Command’s Combined Air Operations Center. Most recently it was the launching pad for thousands of sorties against Islamic State targets in Iraq and Syria.

Since 2003, Qatar has contributed $8 billion to the base’s expansion.

Six American universities have branches in Qatar, the U.S. is the largest direct investor in Qatar, and Qatar is an increasingly valuable trading partner for the U.S, with more than 120 U.S. companies operating in the country. During the White House visit, Qatar announced an $8 billion contract to purchase freight and passenger aircraft from Boeing for Qatar Airways. 

Qatar sees its new designation as a major non-NATO ally not only as a safeguard for its future ties with Washington, but also as a deterrence and insurance policy should its Gulf neighbors tear up the Al Ula agreement and once again impose a blockade.

“There is no naiveté in Qatar to think this is the end of the ideological differences with their Gulf neighbors," Professor Krieg says. "Now they are much better prepared for when the next crisis comes along.”