‘Not the same Bibi’: Why Israel’s public has turned on Netanyahu

Amid cratering poll numbers, ongoing mass protests in the streets, and a recent military escalation on multiple fronts, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought the comfort of a friendly chat on Israel’s Channel 14, considered a safe space for the long-serving premier’s messaging.

Yet even on the slavishly adoring TV outlet, the gravity of Mr. Netanyahu’s – and Israel’s – current reality broke through.

“Listen, the feeling after three months [back in power] is not great. Not great,” Yinon Magal, host of the channel’s “The Patriots” panel show and a well-known Netanyahu supporter, began last Thursday. “There was euphoria that we won an amazing victory after five elections [in less than four years], that we beat them, that we did it. … But it seems that something here isn’t working out.

“Economically, there isn’t any good news. If anything, the situation isn’t very bright. Security, we see [what’s happening],” the host continued. “There’s a sour feeling in general.”

Just over 100 days at the helm of the most far-right governing coalition in Israel’s history, Mr. Netanyahu, a famed political survivor, is under pressure from all sides, with questions mounting about whether he can keep his country united and secure, his extremist partners at bay, and his government intact.

The government’s sole signature issue – a controversial plan to overhaul the judicial system – faces an uncertain future amid intense domestic and international opposition. Hundreds of thousands of Israelis have demonstrated for 15 straight weeks against the move, which critics contend would hand the government unchecked power.

Mr. Netanyahu was forced late last month to declare a “time out” in advancing the legislation, and talks are now underway with the opposition seeking what he has termed “wide consensus” on reform.

President Joe Biden has made his feelings clear, urging Mr. Netanyahu to “walk away” from the issue, adding that he would not be invited to the White House “in the near term,” and that Israel as a whole “cannot continue down this road,” a stunning reproach from the country’s most important ally.

Economic experts and financial markets appear to agree. The shekel has depreciated in value, foreign investment (particularly in the vaunted tech sector) has slowed, and late last week Moody’s, the credit rating agency, downgraded its outlook for the country from positive to stable, citing the “deterioration of governance.”

Adding to the sense of drift, tensions and violence particularly between Israelis and Palestinians have escalated in recent weeks, as the Jewish Passover festival and the Muslim holy month of Ramadan converged.

Clashes between Palestinian worshippers and Israeli police at Jerusalem’s Al Aqsa Mosque was a contributing factor in rocket fire into Israel from Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria over the course of a handful of days earlier this month. Attacks against Israelis have continued unabated, with 19 people killed since the start of the year (and the start of the government’s term). Deaths on the Palestinian side have spiked too, with at least 90 killed since the start of the year, most during Israeli military operations in the West Bank yet including many civilians, according to the B’tselem human rights group.

Likud’s plummeting support

As Mr. Magal, the right-wing television host, hinted, the public mood has turned on Mr. Netanyahu.

Recent poll numbers from multiple surveys have shown voters abandoning his Likud party, which is losing anywhere from a quarter to more than a third of its support. Over two-thirds of the public give the current government a “bad” performance grade, and if elections were held today it would decisively lose its parliamentary majority to a wide coalition of opposition parties.

Most alarming for Mr. Netanyahu, his “suitability” ratings as prime minister have declined precipitously to 34%, and he is now trailing at least one centrist challenger, Benny Gantz, the former army chief and defense minister. According to political analysts, Mr. Netanyahu hasn’t been this unpopular for over 15 years.

“The numbers are abysmal for the government as a whole,” says Dahlia Scheindlin, an Israeli pollster and fellow at the Century Foundation think tank. “But the drain is mostly from Likud. … There’s no question potential voters are leaving the party and taking ‘one step to the left,’ which is to Gantz’s party.”

One such voter is Eliran, a married father of three from central Israel. Eliran, who requested that his last name not be used, voted Likud over the course of five elections dating back to 2019, including late last year. For Eliran and his five siblings – all self-identified right-wingers, all now former Likud supporters – their anger with the government is due primarily to the judicial overhaul push.

“They only spoke about ‘reform’ to the judiciary [before the last election] in general terms, we never saw the details of what they eventually proposed,” he says. “I’m all for reform … but you can’t bring the Supreme Court to its knees, concentrate all power in the government, and turn the prime minister into a king.”

Eliran and his family in fact joined the anti-government street protests, spurred on as well by the polarizing rhetoric of Mr. Netanyahu’s ministers tarring protesters as “traitors” and by the more recent firing of the defense minister, Yoav Gallant, after he called on Mr. Netanyahu to halt the reform push.

“It’s not the same Bibi,” Eliran says, using Mr. Netanyahu’s nickname. “I don’t feel that he’s in control, he’s just sitting on the [prime minister’s] chair …. and the extremists [in government] are pulling the wheel.”

“The sense here is that everything is being lost, and that things are getting worse … with no end or bottom in sight to this crisis,” he adds.

He was “with certainty” not voting Likud again, with Mr. Gantz the most probable alternative.

Damage control

Mr. Netanyahu has belatedly taken note of his dire position and attempted to repair some of the damage.

In addition to the enforced “pause” in the judicial overhaul, he reportedly exiled his firebrand son (and senior adviser) Yair from both the country and social media, and reversed the firing of Mr. Gallant. Israel’s response to the rocket fire from Lebanon and Gaza was measured, say defense analysts, a bid to avoid escalation. And despite rightwing pressure, Mr. Netanyahu last week ordered a halt to Jewish visits to the Al Aqsa Mosque compound during the final 10 days of Ramadan.

Far-right government officials have begun grumbling about these and other measures, which they see as a “capitulation” to terrorism and an abdication of their election promises.

“I’m trying very hard to be loyal and not attack the government I’m a member of, but it just can’t go on like this,” Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich told supporters. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir wrote too that he was “often … frustrated by certain decisions” and constantly weighed whether to resign his post. 

Both Mr. Smotrich and Mr. Ben-Gvir, along with two dozen other coalition officials and thousands of ultra-nationalists, marched to an illegal West Bank settlement outpost last week in a show of defiance – not least toward their own government’s policies.

Mr. Netanyahu has taken to blaming the previous government for the “crooked inheritance” it bequeathed on the security front, and the protest movement for weakening national unity. Yet the public’s patience is wearing thin, to say nothing of his more extreme coalition partners demanding that greater force be deployed.

Collective plight

Political analysts are clear that no matter their mutual displeasure, Mr. Netanyahu and his coalition partners will almost certainly stick together for now and avoid a snap election, precisely because of their declining poll numbers.

“I don’t see any signs they want to disperse this government, since they won’t have many options in the future and most of them won’t return to power,” says Tal Schneider, chief political correspondent for the Times of Israel.

Despite Mr. Netanyahu’s tepid efforts so far at repairing the damage of recent months, the prospect of further turmoil and chaos will almost certainly remain, she adds.

“It all still looks like a circus. He doesn’t control his coalition members or ministers or police or military reservists or protesters in the streets,” Ms. Schneider says. “They stuck themselves with this judicial reform, and they can’t seem to get out of it.”