Saudis pivot from seeking peace with Israel to trying to contain war

Over the past few days, Saudi Arabia has experienced a diplomatic whiplash.

Before Saturday morning, the kingdom was riding high on good vibes and good publicity: It was nearing a historic normalization agreement with Israel that would have opened up economic and political ties, given it a formal security arrangement with America, and boosted its civilian nuclear program.

But within hours of Hamas’ bloody assault on Israel, Saudi Arabia found itself condemning massacres, urging restraint, pledging undying support for the Palestinians, and frantically trying to mediate one of the most intractable – and suddenly most volatile – conflicts in the Middle East.

On Thursday, in the first such contact between Saudi leadership and an Iranian leader in a decade, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman even spoke with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to “discuss the current military escalation in Gaza and its surroundings,” according to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA).

The contact with Saudi Arabia’s regional rival, an outspoken ally and supporter of Hamas, underscored the kingdom’s commitment to “communicate with all international and regional parties to stop the ongoing escalation” and its “rejection of targeting of civilians in any way,” the state-run SPA said.

In the call, the crown prince “stressed the kingdom’s unwavering stance in standing up for the Palestinian cause and supporting efforts aimed at achieving a just and comprehensive peace that guarantees Palestinians’ legitimate rights,” the agency said.

Diplomatic sources say the Saudis have reached out to Israel but have not received a reply.

Saudi Arabia’s hands-on role in trying to de-escalate war between Israel and Hamas poses a critical test of the crown prince’s newly articulated diplomacy-first philosophy. A wider war would threaten both the kingdom’s economic success story at home as well as its vision of a pragmatic region that puts prosperity ahead of old enmities.  

As intensified shelling on a besieged Gaza and an impending Israeli ground invasion sour the Saudi public’s mood on the prospects of cooperation with Israel, Riyadh hopes it can both achieve peace and keep the normalization deal alive.

Every day, that challenge intensifies. As of Thursday, Palestinian officials say 1,417 people have been killed by Israeli missile strikes in Gaza, including 447 children. Israel puts its own death toll above 1,300, mostly civilians.

Diplomatic flurry

Saudi Arabia had long used its position as custodian of two of Islam’s holiest sites and the world’s largest oil producer to push for concessions for Palestinians and to pitch peace plans, including the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which offered normalized Arab-Israeli ties in exchange for Palestinian statehood.

Yet Riyadh often kept the conflict and day-to-day diplomacy with Palestinians at arm’s length – allowing Egypt and Jordan, states with peace deals with Israel, to do the heavy lifting.

This week, Saudi Arabia too is working the phones.

Last weekend, the crown prince called to discuss developments and coordinate with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, and Jordan’s King Abdullah. The Saudi foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan al Saud, has been coordinating with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who is now in the region, and European and Gulf diplomats.

According to the SPA, the crown prince expressed to the leaders the “kingdom’s unwavering commitment to supporting the Palestinian people in their pursuit of legitimate rights, a dignified life, and the achievement of a just and lasting peace.”

The kingdom has “urged both sides to use restraint” and called on “the need for all parties to respect international humanitarian law,” SPA reported.

The new Saudi diplomacy has also meant a flurry of activity for the kingdom’s fresh nonresident envoy to the Palestinians, Nayef al-Sudairi, who only two weeks ago had traveled to Ramallah to present his credentials, the first official Saudi visit to the West Bank in 56 years.

In an attempt to mediate with all sides, according to Arab diplomatic sources, Saudi Arabia has also sent communications to Israel urging restraint in its response to Hamas’ attacks and to avoid a costly ground invasion in Gaza, which it warns would further inflame the region.

According to Arab diplomats, Saudi Arabia has attempted to use as leverage the danger that a prolonged war would galvanize anti-Israel sentiment and kill the Saudi-Israeli normalization talks. Riyadh has reportedly been frustrated by Israel’s lack of response.

“The crown prince and the kingdom are using their good relations with all parties to prevent military escalations from going further and to prevent more human suffering,” says a Saudi official who was not authorized to speak to the press.

However, Saudi Arabia will not completely abandon normalization as, under “the right conditions,” it remains in Saudi Arabia’s long-term strategic interests, the source adds.

Yet de-escalation and Israeli concessions to the Palestinian Authority, Hamas’ rival, are now viewed as critical to keep the rapprochement agreement alive, the source says.

The conflict has strengthened the position of figures within the Saudi establishment who believe Israeli guarantees of Palestinian statehood – if not statehood itself – must precede any normalization.

“The current events show that Israel cannot ignore the conflict with the Palestinians and that its safety and security depend on solving the conflict with the Palestinians,” says Hesham al-Ghannam, a Saudi analyst and international affairs expert.

“The kingdom can only hope that Israel would realize this. Its position remains the same [as] before these events: Progress on solving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is a precondition to normalization.”

Public mood sours

Riyadh today feels more distant from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict than most Arab capitals.

Footage of missile-struck homes and screaming mothers and bloodied children in Gaza does not blare from TVs at restaurants and cafes; few car radios are tuned in to live updates on the war gripping commuters, as in the Levant and Egypt.

Casual conversations are of business, sports, food, and family, with a rare passing mention of Gaza, if at all.

But this surface-level apathy is misleading. The apparent lack of preoccupation with the conflict masks deep support for the Palestinians among average Saudis – and a simmering outrage over Israel’s deadly military offensive and total siege on Gaza.

“Some of us avoid the news because it hurts too much, not because we don’t care,” says Noura, who works in retail and, like many in the story, gave only one name. “We see ourselves in Palestinians and we feel their losses.”

“Palestinians are an inspiration. They stand up to injustice; they are not afraid to die. Palestinians stand up for all Arabs,” Mohammed, a 30-year-old driver, said in Riyadh Saturday, hours into Hamas’ assault yet before the true extent of its massacre came to light.

Hamas’ killing of Israeli civilians and children is “unacceptable” and “un-Islamic,” says an electrical engineer who simply gave the name Saleh, worried about running afoul of political speech laws. He points out that Saudi Arabia and Israel have never been at war and that Israelis, Jews, and “peoples of all faiths are welcomed in Saudi Arabia.”

He believes normalization and integration with Israel are in Saudi Arabia’s best interests, but that the ongoing war complicates any potential for Saudi Arabia and Israel to have full ties.

“The Israeli government is bombing women and children. They are using white phosphorus. They are cutting off electricity and water and starving Gazans,” he says.

“Is this a partner for peace? Can this be a partner for normalization?”

Make progress, not war

The war threatens to upend more than just a normalization deal, but also a two-year trend of regional cooperation and rapprochement that Saudi Arabia has helped foster and is fighting to keep alive.

As part of the kingdom’s and crown prince’s rehabilitation on the world stage, the country has pursued reconciliation and rapprochement with various rivals and states from Qatar and Turkey to Iran and Yemen’s Houthis, as well as Syria’s Bashar al-Assad.

At the same time, it has preached cooperation as a way forward to address global challenges such as the pandemic and climate change.

Riyadh is host to a constant cycle of upbeat regional and international conferences tackling issues from health to artificial intelligence to climate, boosting innovation and a concept of “togetherness” to take on global challenges.

“We are progressing and growing and leading. We all should be innovating and growing together to face the immense challenges such as climate change and food and water scarcity, not getting dragged down in war,” says a second official Saudi source. “It is such a waste. And it threatens all the good momentum we have.”

Despite the stakes, Saudi Arabia is finding its leverage, and its room to maneuver, limited.

The kingdom has limited sway over the Islamist militant Hamas, whose ideology is at odds with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies, save for Qatar.

Saudi Arabia recently made inroads with the Hamas leadership-in-exile when it invited a delegation led by political leader Ismail Haniyeh to perform the Umrah pilgrimage in Mecca in April, part of a failed attempt to reconcile Hamas and Fatah.

There are concerns in Riyadh, meanwhile, that Iran may be attempting to exacerbate the crisis to expand its influence among Palestinians, and that the timing of the operation was aimed at sabotaging Saudi Arabia’s normalization with Israel – a view shared by some citizens.

“We are worried that Hamas and Iran are trying to kill peace and the vision of the crown prince,” says Amjad, who runs an agricultural company in Riyadh.

“But with wisdom and hard work, we hope Saudi Arabia can keep the vision of peace alive in spite of them.”