Many Israelis are resigned to war with Hezbollah. Are they prepared?

With hostilities between Israel and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah escalating daily, U.S. and European diplomats are striving to prevent the violence from erupting into a full-scale war that could threaten the region.

The need for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis, which has already driven tens of thousands of people from their homes, was a key message conveyed Tuesday by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to visiting Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in Washington.

“Another war between Israel and Hezbollah could easily become a regional war with terrible consequences for the Middle East,” Secretary Austin said. “We are urgently seeking a diplomatic agreement that restores lasting calm to Israel’s northern border and enables civilians to return safely to their homes on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border.”

Yet for many Israelis – fixated for more than eight months on the war with Hamas in Gaza and a traumatic hostage crisis – the prospect of war on an additional front elicits a blend of fatigue and resignation that conflict is perhaps inevitable. 

Residents of northern Israel cannot live with the threat of Hezbollah rockets or an invasion like the one Hamas carried out Oct. 7, the argument goes, even if the timing is bad.

An all-out war with Hezbollah would be a “disaster,” says Pini Yonatan, a hairdresser at a salon in northern Tel Aviv, as he takes a break.

People are “mentally exhausted” from the war in Gaza, he concedes. “We don’t want a war, but we don’t have a choice. We will get hit, but Lebanon will be destroyed.”

Yet that exhaustion, accompanied by the return of anti-government protests as a fixture of Israeli politics, raises the question of how prepared Israelis are for an additional conflict. 

Many Israelis express faith in the military to protect them, though experts warn there is a lack of appreciation for what a war with an enemy that is vastly more powerful than Hamas would mean for residents of the center of the country.

Chuck Freilich, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, says a war with Hezbollah would be very different.

Iran-backed Hezbollah, he says, has antiaircraft missiles, an estimated 150,000 rockets, and thousands of unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, that can reach most of Israel and certainly hit the center of the country, which has the highest population concentration and much of the national security infrastructure.

These central areas, including Tel Aviv, are the beating heart of the nation’s economy. They were targeted at the start of the war in Gaza by Hamas’ rockets, but the damage and impact were limited.

“I don’t think the public fully understands how difficult this is going to be,” says Mr. Freilich, a former national security adviser.

“It is a totally different order of magnitude,” he says. “The level of destruction on Israel’s homefront may be something like we have never, ever experienced.”

Israeli leaders, he adds, have been “downplaying the costs” of such a war. They are talking up the strength of Israel, but not preparing the public for what such a war would mean, and what the options are.

“The IDF [Israel Defense Forces] is tired and overstretched; they could use some time to gear up again,” Mr. Freilich says. He adds that maybe instead of the leaders playing up Israel’s strength, what they should be telling the citizens is this: “People, swallow hard, the price is too heavy, and the people in the north are just going to have to go back to their homes [amid] the existing Hezbollah threat because we can’t wage another war at this time.”

Government’s trust deficit

Meanwhile, the prolonged war in Gaza has eroded trust in the government and led to the questioning of its motivations and decisions, says Professor Bruria Adini, head of the department of emergency management and disaster medicine at Tel Aviv University’s School of Public Health. That erosion of trust has led to a substantial decrease of hope for better times ahead, she says, and is wearing down the resilience of the population, which was “very, very high” in the immediate aftermath of the Oct. 7 attack.

Entering an additional war with lowered resilience levels and decreased levels of social cohesion, stemming from the reemergence of the prewar political rifts, would “impact the population’s capacity to effectively cope with emerging threats,” Professor Adini says. 

Adding to the government’s trust deficit this week, an Israeli state commission of inquiry investigating a years-old military acquisition contract cast doubt on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision-making process, saying it had “endangered the security of the state.”

Amid rising tensions with Hezbollah, “I don’t trust our leadership,” says Eitan Erez, head of sales at a cybersecurity firm, speaking Tuesday at a cybersecurity conference in Tel Aviv. Mr. Erez, who lives with his wife and three children in Yehud, on the outskirts of Tel Aviv, has equipped his home with water and batteries. He says he trusts the army and believes Israel’s antimissile defenses will protect the nation from the worst of the brunt of an all-out war.

“I think we are ready for everything,” he says. Even so, he hopes for an accord and peace, “even if everything at this time points to an escalation.”

Similarly, Koby Perez, a taxi driver who lives outside Tel Aviv in Ramat Gan, says he has no trust in Israel’s leadership, and prefers an agreement over an escalation.

“The state is not ready for all of the dead and the damage that such a war would entail,” he says, steering his taxi through the busy streets of Tel Aviv. “There is no way to prepare for such a war,” he adds, except to go to demonstrations and hope the government will fall.

“Denial ... helps us live”

Talk of escalation and of possible prolonged electricity blackouts caused by Hezbollah attacks on strategic infrastructure has sent some citizens scrambling for generators.

But not so for two sisters from Jerusalem, sitting at a café in Tel Aviv Sunday. They sipped their cappuccinos, resigned for what could be on its way in coming weeks. 

Vardit and Dvora, who declined to give their full names, were waiting for their drinks under the shade of a leafy tree. “We may be in denial, but that helps us live,” Vardit says with a smile.

The levels of stress vary depending on the day, she says. If a war with Hezbollah expands, “We will have to be close to our safe rooms, not sipping coffee as we are doing now. Everything will stop.”

The sisters say they trust the army to protect them, but not the politicians leading the country. Both agree that a political solution would be better than war.

At the Tel Aviv beach Monday, Dr. Carlita Landau, a health lecturer and seawater exercise instructor, was organizing equipment ahead of her class.

She says she is keenly aware that this normalcy could disappear if Tel Aviv is hit by Hezbollah rockets.

“It scares me, constricts my body, and closes my chest,” Dr. Landau says.

Going into the sea with its unexpected waves, and maybe jellyfish, she adds, “is a good way to prepare for the uncertainty of current times.”