Israel mulls Lebanon invasion. Hezbollah ‘coup de grâce’ or quagmire?

Almost a year after the Israeli army was caught by surprise and humiliated by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, its forces are back on the offensive.

Assassinating archenemy Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Iranian-backed Hezbollah paramilitary group; launching a blitz that wiped out many of its top commanders; and leaving the organization dazed and immobilized – for the time being – Israel has reclaimed its role as a military powerhouse.

The question it faces now is how far to press its advantage at this potentially game-changing moment.

At stake is not only the future of the 65,000 Israelis forced from their homes near the northern border with Lebanon by Hezbollah rocket fire. Israel has the opportunity now, the government believes, to hobble the most powerful member of the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance.”

“For decades, he [Mr. Nasrallah] terrorized us in the most immediate sense,” Shimrit Meir, a former adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, told the Israeli podcast “Unholy.” Israel should capitalize on his death to “shape a reality that is different from this ring of fire that Israelis were in up until two weeks ago,” surrounded by hostile forces such as Axis members Hamas, Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen, she argued.

Meanwhile, pressure is mounting in Israel for a ground incursion into Lebanon, especially from those living along Israel’s northern border. They have seen over 8,000 Hezbollah rockets shot at their towns and villages in the past year, while they have been placed in temporary housing elsewhere. 

Even in their weakened state, Hezbollah forces have continued to fire rockets in recent days, and deeper into the country than before.  

The Israeli government has reportedly told Washington that a ground invasion is imminent. Defense Minister Yoav Galant hinted at an invasion Monday when he addressed Israeli soldiers on the border, and the army has declared some border communities in the north “closed military areas” – another indication of unusual military activity.

The Pentagon said Monday that Washington would send a “few thousand” troops to the Middle East to bolster security and to defend Israel if necessary. 

Ground assault in the offing?

Moshe Davidovitz, chairman of the forum of residents on the northern front line, says that they will feel safe enough to return to their homes only if Israeli ground forces move into southern Lebanon and push Hezbollah fighters back from the border. Otherwise, they fear, Hezbollah militants might break across the border in a Hamas-style assault.

“In order to protect our communities, we have no choice but to surgically clean out what Hezbollah built over years so close to the border,” Mr. Davidovitz argues.

That is thought to include an intricate network of tunnels deep underground near Israel’s border, used to hide troops and long-range missile launchers, says Miri Eisen, director of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism in Herzliya.

Israel has created and occupied a military “security zone” in southern Lebanon before, for 15 years until 2000 when it withdrew its forces under pressure from public opinion, weary from sustaining casualties.

This time, says Eitan Shamir, director of Bar-Ilan University’s Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, the Israeli army has two options: It could take and hold territory south of the Litani River, which runs parallel to the border about 20 miles north of it, or it could try to drive deeper into Lebanon to further degrade Hezbollah infrastructure, although “for obvious reasons the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] would be reluctant to stay there.”

War or peace?

As challenging as it would be to clear out Hezbollah’s tunnel network, says Professor Shamir, especially in the mountainous terrain of southern Lebanon, much of it has already been degraded. The Israeli army spokesperson said on the social platform X that Israel had “dismantled” Hezbollah’s “Missiles and Rockets Force” in repeated bombing raids.

“Hezbollah is not in the same shape in southern Lebanon, and there’s also no leadership to direct and command them,” says Professor Shamir. Fighters might, however, revert to the guerrilla tactics of Hezbollah’s early days, he suggests.

Furthermore, he says, Israeli soldiers would have experience from fighting Hamas in Gaza, including in its extensive tunnel network.

Mr. Galant, Israel’s defense minister, appeared to be giving commanders and troops a pre-ground war pep talk in remarks to them Monday. “The elimination of Nasrallah is an important step, but it is not the final one,” he said. “In order to ensure the return of Israel’s northern communities, we will employ all of our capabilities, and this includes you. Good luck.”

In the hours before Mr. Nasrallah’s assassination, French and U.S. officials were finalizing a proposal for a three-week truce between Israel and Hezbollah; they are still promoting the plan, warning that the region stands on the brink of a catastrophic all-out regional war involving Iran.

Israelis appear to be divided between those who want to do more damage to Hezbollah while Israel has the momentum, and those calling for a deal that would both stop the war in Gaza, freeing the remaining hostages, and end hostilities with Hezbollah.

Ms. Meir, the former government adviser, expects the harder line to prevail. “When your enemy is on the ground bleeding, you don’t lend him a hand. You exhaust the opportunity you have; you win,” she argued. “And I think that is what we will strive for, and I think a deal will be easier to reach that way.”