Survey of US Economists Says Recession Is Here

THREE-quarters of the 51 economic forecasters surveyed by the National Association of Business Economists believe the United States economy already is slogging through a recession, the NABE said Nov. 27. Two-thirds of the economists also said the recession is expected to last two quarters or less and should be mild in historical terms.

The report is the latest in a series of reports indicating that a recession could be under way. Although the Bush administration has insisted the economy is not in recession, President Bush recently conceded that the economy has suffered a downturn. Private economists have not been as optimistic.

Of the 25 percent of economists who said the economy is not yet in recession, most said the probability of a recession has increased since August. Fifteen percent said a recession is not on the economic horizon.