Europe's style toward bullies
Just a few months ago, Turkey sent a research vessel into the territorial waters of Greece – accompanied by warships – to explore for undersea gas. When Greece responded with its own show of force, the two NATO allies almost came to blows. Their gunboats even collided. Since then, Turkey appears to have had a change of heart, driven in part by the European Union’s diplomacy toward its giant Middle Eastern neighbor.
On Jan. 25, Greece and Turkey held their first official talks in nearly five years. They also agreed to meet again in March to continue the “exploratory” dialogue over maritime claims in the eastern Mediterranean.
By some accounts, Turkey’s turnaround may be only temporary, compelled by a worsening economy and the election in the United States. President Joe Biden has referred to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as an “autocrat” who “must pay a price” for his actions, such as his purchase of a Russian missile defense system. Mr. Biden’s Secretary of State says Turkey is only a “so-called strategic partner.”
Another way to account for Turkey’s newfound friendliness is that the EU is relying on the diplomatic approach of German leader Angela Merkel. In dealing with troublesome neighbors such as Russia and Hungary, she often calls for “step by step” moral persuasion rather than power plays and tough sanctions. She prefers negotiations that are a meeting of equals and more contemplative than contentious. “Fear is not a good adviser in politics,” she says.
At her urging, the EU is pursuing a “positive agenda” with Turkey although one backed by talk of sanctions. One practical reason is that Turkey could again open its borders for migrants from the Mideast’s wars to enter Europe. Yet this “weaponizing” of refugees to get his way has backfired on Mr. Erdoğan, delaying yet again his Muslim country’s hopes of joining the EU.
With the EU’s firm but patient approach, the Turkish leader may indeed be in a contemplative mood. The EU is Turkey’s No. 1 export partner and source of investment. With elections in two years, Mr. Erdoğan needs the European market more than ever to reduce Turkey’s high unemployment.
At the least, he needs calm rather than confrontation with EU member Greece. As the EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell said of Turkey this month, “Like tango, you need both sides to be good neighbors.” For Ms. Merkel and the EU, that means somehow bringing out the good in Turkey. The talks with Greece show it is possible.
