Appealing to Russia's better nature
For decades, whenever Russia sought transparency on what other countries in Europe were doing with their militaries, it often turned to a little-known institution created during the Cold War. The 57 member states of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe are bound together to keep the Continent “whole and free.” Now with a flurry of diplomatic activity to prevent a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, the OSCE may be center stage in keeping the peace.
Last week, Ukraine asked the OSCE to discuss the issue of Russia not living up to its agreement about military transparency. As is its right under OSCE rules, Ukraine wants detailed explanations of Russia massing more than 130,000 troops along the Ukrainian border.
“If Russia is serious when it talks about the indivisibility of security in the OSCE space, it must fulfill its commitment to military transparency in order to de-escalate tensions and enhance security for all,” tweeted Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
Russia is expected to boycott any OSCE meeting on the matter. Yet Ukraine’s move was a subtle move. It plays to its neighbor’s past pursuits for peace and confidence-building in Europe, whether it is transparency in military maneuvers or risk reduction through arms control pacts. Russia is more complex than the simple narrative of a bully. Appealing to its better nature could be as persuasive as threats of severe sanctions.
As Europe’s top security body, the OSCE may be the best forum to deal with Russia’s concerns about a possible expansion of NATO. The Vienna-based organization is one of the few bodies in which the United States and Russia are voting members. And it is already heavily involved in Ukraine. For nearly eight years, its observers have monitored a cease-fire between government forces and Russia-backed separatists in the eastern region.
An invasion of Ukraine by Russia could lead the OSCE to evict it. One reason: Members are obligated not to view any part of the OSCE region as a sphere of its influence. Eviction from the OSCE would curb, if not end, the Kremlin’s ability to shape Europe’s security by peaceful means.
On Feb. 15, the current chair of the OSCE, Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau, is scheduled to visit Moscow. His will be the latest effort to persuade President Vladimir Putin not to invade Ukraine. He may also remind Mr. Putin of his country’s history of relying on a body designed around principles that have helped keep the peace on a continent with a long history of wars.
