Why did North Korea fire a missile over Japan Tuesday instead of at Guam, as it threatened three weeks ago?

Japan has long been its preferred military target, say analysts. This was the third missile test over Japan in recent years.

Guam was a bluff. And understanding Pyongyang’s likely intentions may help lower the fear – and risk of military escalation.

If North Korea believes the United States is going to attack in order to stop its nuclear weapons program, it needs a credible preemptive attack. Strategists say a first strike would likely target US bases in Japan, not the US mainland. Kim Jong-un’s big gamble, now that he has missiles that can reach the US, is that Washington will blink:

“Are we really willing to risk Los Angeles or Chicago in retaliation for an attack on a US military base [in Asia]?” one analyst asked in an interview with Eric Talmadge of The Associated Press. “Probably not.”

That’s probably why President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe spent 40 minutes on the phone Tuesday.

If you’re a weak nation trying to gain respect, as we reported Monday, unpredictability may help Mr. Kim sow fear. But for a strong nation, getting drawn into Kim’s wild war dance may not be in its interests. It may be smarter to work with allies to defuse the situation, following Sun Tzu’s “Art of War”:

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

Now to our five stories for today.