As a Monitor correspondent in Thailand, I covered elections and coups, in that order. Any elected government that takes on the military, or is seen as a threat to its status, runs the risk of being deposed, if not by tanks in the streets then by a “judicial coup,” in the form of a court order that disbars politicians and dissolves their parties. Think of this as Thailand’s “deep state.”

Now the military faces a dilemma after an election that could prove the most consequential in a generation. On May 14, Move Forward Party, which is led by a young, U.S.-educated leader, won the biggest share of seats in parliament on a wave of support from younger voters, easily defeating parties backed by the military, which has governed Thailand since a 2014 coup. 

Move Forward has since begun talks with other parties to form a coalition government. One of the party’s campaign pledges was to reform the military and end conscription. It also proposes to raise taxes and spend more on welfare, though how much is likely to be subject to intraparty negotiations. But the party’s leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, is adamant that democratic oversight of the military and of conservative institutions like the judiciary and police are nonnegotiable.

The military still holds some cards, though. Even if Move Forward has support in the lower House to form a government, it can be blocked by the unelected Senate, which was appointed by a military government. Under the constitution adopted after the 2014 coup, a government needs to command a majority of the combined chambers’ 750 seats.

Pro-military senators are likely to see Mr. Limjaroenrat and his political movement as a threat. But they have few good options to form an alternative government, since the second-largest party also campaigned for an end to military rule.

Could the military simply pull the plug on democracy? That’s always a risk in Thailand, as I saw for myself.

But this time feels different, as a new crop of political reformers has emerged with new ideas about how to build a sustainable democracy. The military would have little public support if it ignores Mr. Limjaroenrat’s electoral mandate. So I’m increasingly hopeful that Thailand’s cycle of elections and coups may finally be broken.