When it came time for questions at a recent campaign event for Ron DeSantis at an Iowa sports bar, one supporter stood up instead to offer the Florida governor some advice. 

“You need to stay in this through the convention, because the first person might be in jail,” the man, a precinct captain, told Mr. DeSantis to cheers of “That’s right!” from the crowd in Grimes. “People win Iowa and do not become president, and people lose Iowa and do become president.” 

It’s true that Iowa, whose first-in-the-nation caucuses will kick off the Republican nominating contest in less than a week, hasn’t backed the eventual GOP nominee since 2000. But the fact that Mr. DeSantis’ supporters are already urging their candidate not to drop out speaks to the unusual nature of this year’s primary. 

For months, former President Donald Trump has been dominating the race here, running ahead of both Mr. DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley by an almost unprecedented 30 percentage points in recent polls. In some ways, the biggest drama this week has come from the weather – which has caused the cancellation of several candidate events and is forecast to hit record cold temperatures on caucus night. Many GOP voters and politicos seem largely resigned to the idea that an upset on Monday looks improbable, if not impossible.

Still, what often matters most in politics is outperforming expectations. If either Mr. DeSantis or Ms. Haley were to surge to a surprisingly strong second-place finish, that would create a new dynamic heading into the New Hampshire primary. Mr. Trump’s team, by contrast, is aiming to blow past the 50% margin, say several Republican operatives, putting him on a glide path to the nomination. No candidate has ever won Iowa by more than 12 points. 

“The [non-Trump] campaigns see this caucus as the opening bout of a heavyweight fight,” says Jimmy Centers, a Republican strategist in Iowa and former communications director for Terry Branstad during his Iowa governorship. “Trump’s team sees it as the opportunity to deliver a knockout punch and end it.”

A light campaign schedule

Hours before Mr. Trump was set to take the stage on Saturday, the school gym in Clinton, a town bordering Illinois on the banks of the Mississippi River, had reached capacity. Local law enforcement estimated 1,200 people were packed tightly into the rows of bleachers, with 1,000 more turned away at the door. Despite Mr. Trump running several hours behind schedule, few rallygoers left early. 

Story Hinckley/The Christian Science Monitor

Numiva Van Zee, a 2024 caucus captain for former President Donald Trump in her town of Comanche, Iowa, waits with her husband, Arlen, for Mr. Trump to speak in Clinton on Jan. 6.

“We’re going to win by a lot,” Mr. Trump told the cheering crowd as snow started to fall outside. “You got to get out. Because the more we win by – we’re shooting for November because we have to send a message: We can’t be beaten.” 

The event was one of four Mr. Trump held last weekend, with no additional campaign stops planned until this weekend. The former president has made notably few appearances here, in a state where retail politicking is seen as de rigeuer. On Tuesday, he was preparing to appear in a Washington courtroom instead. 

Mr. DeSantis and Ms. Haley, too, have kept relatively light schedules for a campaign in its final days. Mr. DeSantis was back in Florida for a few days this week, and Ms. Haley cancelled her single Monday event, as winter storm warnings descended on the state. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, polling in the single digits, has kept a relentless campaign schedule, but on Tuesday morning he also had to cancel events due to the snow.

Despite that, Iowa Republican Party Chairman Jeff Kaufmann says the “organizational strength” of the campaigns this year is unprecedented. 

“At least two of them have Ted Cruz-like organizations ready to roll,” says Mr. Kaufmann, referring to the Texas senator who won the GOP caucus here in 2016 thanks to a superior ground game, beating Mr. Trump. Mr. Kaufmann declined to name which two campaigns he was referring to, but the Trump campaign’s grassroots operation has been well acknowledged this cycle. 

“There was no Trump ground game in 2016,” says Doug Gross, a former Republican gubernatorial candidate in Iowa who served as chief of staff to former Governor Branstad. “He would fly in, and the masses turned out [to see him]. But those who organized, like Cruz, were able to nudge him out. So he learned from that.”  

In Clinton, the crowd was dotted with white baseball caps emblazoned with “Trump Caucus Captain” in gold. One belonged to Dave Fisher, a truck driver and city council member from a small town west of Cedar Rapids, who received an email from the campaign a few months ago asking if he planned to caucus for the former president. “The next thing you know,” says Mr. Fisher, he was on a video call with a hundred other caucus captains and Mr. Trump himself. 

Story Hinckley/The Christian Science Monitor

Dave Fisher, a truck driver from outside Cedar Rapids, came to see former President Donald Trump in Clinton, Iowa, Jan. 6, 2024, after being asked by his campaign to be a caucus captain.

“My job is to identify people who are going to caucus in my area and bring them out on caucus night,” says Mr. Fisher, adding that he will also give a short speech in support of Mr. Trump on caucus night. 

Numiva Van Zee, a Trump caucus captain from Comanche, says she was given a list of potential Trump supporters to contact. She was told to make sure she brings 10 people with her on caucus night who will support Mr. Trump.

Before Mr. Trump took the stage in Clinton, an animated video walked rallygoers through every step of the caucus process, while a massive QR Code above the stage took voters to their precinct locations. State Rep. Bobby Kaufmann, the party chair’s son, asked the crowd to raise their hands if they would be caucusing for the first time next week. Roughly one-quarter raised their hands. 

Haley and DeSantis seeking a foothold

Asking her audiences that same question at campaign events across the state, Nikki Haley has gotten similar responses. 

“I’d be surprised if the results aren’t tighter than what the polls show,” says Tom Miller, waiting to see Ms. Haley in North Liberty on Saturday. Mr. Miller voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, but says he’d back Ms. Haley over President Biden if she ends up as the Republican nominee. Independent, anti-Trump Republican, and even formerly Democratic voters like Mr. Miller are a core constituency for Ms. Haley – which is why she has focused so much more on the next nominating contest in New Hampshire. In the Granite State, which allows independents to vote in the GOP primary, some polls now show her just a few points behind the former president. 

“Nikki has had the most success in catching Trump,” says Jeff Wessel, a Cedar Rapids voter sitting beside Mr. Miller, who voted twice for Mr. Trump but now says the former president carries “too much baggage.”  

Ms. Haley’s ability to win over varied voters like Mr. Miller and Mr. Wessel, two strangers sitting in the front row at her event, is one of the central arguments for her campaign.

Story Hinckley/The Christian Science Monitor

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley speaks to voters in a North Liberty, Iowa, brewery Jan. 6, 2024, ahead of the Jan. 15 caucus in which she hopes to exceed polling expectations.

“Rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him,” Ms. Haley tells the crowd packed into a North Liberty brewery, speaking of Mr. Trump. “We can’t have a country in disarray and a world on fire and go through four more years of chaos, because we won’t survive it.” 

Iowa Republicans supporting Mr. DeSantis offer a similar rationale for backing a non-Trump candidate.

“Trump is getting old,” says Connie Lendt, a precinct captain for Mr. DeSantis from Woodward, who voted twice for Mr. Trump. “They’ve tried to impeach him every time he’s been in office. The Democrats won’t give it up, and I want a president who will follow through.”

“Look at this crowd. I absolutely think DeSantis can win Iowa,” says Wyatt Landuyt-Krueger, a DeSantis supporter who works with a nonprofit in Cedar Rapids and voted for Mr. Biden in 2020. 

Left unsaid is what will happen if he doesn’t. Mr. DeSantis essentially staked his campaign on the Hawkeye State, visiting all 99 counties and earning the endorsement of GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds. 

He might be able to have a successful caucus night without winning outright, say strategists. But at a minimum, he needs to come in second and shrink the gap with Mr. Trump – or it might be hard for him to justify staying in the race, despite the plea from that supporter in Grimes. 

“DeSantis was the 500-pound gorilla alternative in the room for much of last winter and spring until he got into the race, and his stumbles have been well documented,” says Mr. Centers. “By and large, the party is still the party of Trump – so you better be offering a compelling reason as to why Republican voters should be switching horses midstream.”

Can the staggering number of migrants arriving in New York help to fill thousands of open jobs in the region?

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul argues yes. “We have all these people who want to be here. I have all these jobs that are open. You marry the two together, and you’ve solved the problems,” she said last fall while announcing job openings for qualified migrants. 

In an effort to ease the financial crunch of supporting recent arrivals, Governor Hochul and New York City Mayor Eric Adams have touted new programs, like work authorization clinics and a jobs portal, to more quickly match migrants with work opportunities. 

For migrants, the formula for finding a lawful job is not so simple. 

Legal work is complicated by bureaucratic hurdles and limited knowledge of the U.S. job hunt. Despite a tight labor market, companies are often hesitant to hire authorized foreigners due to concerns about language barriers and lack of domestic work history. Yet there’s increased momentum, by officials strained by the cost of supporting migrants, to help newcomers move more quickly toward self-sufficiency. 

“Right now, we need labor, and these people are desperate to [earn money],” says David Reimers, a professor emeritus at New York University and expert on immigration history. Elected officials haven’t taken this tack before, but it makes sense given the country’s low unemployment rate, he says. 

“Honest, dignified” work

In a tight Bronx conference room last month, 25 people from across Latin America gathered to learn safety regulations necessary for construction work. Among them: a mechanic, doctor, business owner, and sales representative. 

For these migrants, the prospect of finding work in their previous professions isn’t a consideration. They say that they’re willing to take any lawful job to support their families, even if it means accepting low wages or relocating. 

Rosanny, a Venezuelan doctor, attended the training run by Catholic Charities of New York. She left home in 2019 because her country lacked medical supplies to treat patients. After four years in Ecuador, she says, she fled with her partner and toddler to the United States to escape kidnappers. As she awaits work authorization, Rosanny cleans houses for $100 a day and gives $40 therapeutic messages. 

“I’ll do any work that’s honest, dignified,” she says through a translator. She’s willing to labor in any field, including construction, and hopes to work in health care, she adds. 

Rosanny, like others interviewed, asked to be identified by her first name alone. She is one of 168,500 asylum-seekers and migrants who have arrived in New York City since spring 2022, with approximately 69,000 still relying on city services, according to Mayor Adams’ office. This support has cost the city $1.7 billion, a number that continues to grow. 

Officials hope that by speeding work permits, more people can move out of government shelter and into their own housing. In October, the state had about 466,000 of the country’s 8.8 million open jobs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

Yuki Iwamura/AP/File

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul addresses the media during a news conference, March. 13, 2023, in New York. She has directed the state Department of Labor to create a jobs portal to link authorized migrants with employment opportunities.

Under U.S. law, migrants who are paroled into the country or who are asylum-seekers can apply to work legally while their immigration cases are pending. Federal officials recently cut down on processing times, but the wait for authorization can take anywhere from one month to over a year. Asylum-seekers must wait an additional 150 days after submitting their asylum application before applying for work credentials.

While migrants wait, many rely on public resources or take low-paying and unreliable, under-the-table gigs. 

Current migrants face the same challenges as their predecessors – low wages and poor working conditions in order to provide better futures for their families, says C. Mario Russell, executive director at the Center for Migration Studies in New York.

Yet today’s migrants, many of whom are asylum-seekers, can access support systems not offered just a few years ago. Nonprofits, volunteers, and city and federal agencies offer paperwork assistance, legal help, English lessons, settlement, and job advice. Demand, however, far outstrips resources.

Identifying partnerships  

State officials also are working to identify private-sector job opportunities for migrants. Governor Hochul announced in October that the state had secured some 18,000 jobs for authorized workers in various industries; by December, the state Department of Labor listed nearly 40,000 job openings for eligible migrants. Some states – such as Illinois, Indiana, and Utah – want permission from Washington to sponsor migrants to fill critical job openings.

In late December, the attorney general of New York and 17 other state attorneys general called on Washington to accelerate migrant work access by taking steps such as eliminating application fees and granting provisional work. Critics say such actions encourage illegal crossings. 

Some employers are hesitant to hire even authorized migrants. David Kholodorov owns a barbershop and a restaurant in Manhattan. An émigré from Russia, he now employs two documented, immigrant barbers. Nonetheless, he considers it a gamble to hire someone without verifiable references. 

Although many unauthorized immigrants pay U.S. payroll taxes, critics say the revenue doesn’t cover the cost of services they use. Besides, vacancies should be filled by U.S. citizens, not foreigners, says Steven Camarota, director of research at the Center for Immigration Studies. 

While some individuals crossing into America may not want to work, the vast majority are so determined that they’re willing to walk the almost 3,000 miles to get here, says Anna Hidalgo, a faculty fellow in sociology at New York University who studies Venezuelan migrants in New York City. 

“If you have the gumption to cross the Darién Strait, to make that journey, you are cut from a different cloth. You are someone who is going to do what it takes to move forward to a better life for you and your children and your family, which is all these folks talk about,” she says.

Rosanny, the Venezuelan doctor, anticipates a 150-day wait for her work authorization to arrive. Until then, she’ll take small-scale jobs, attend English class, and do whatever is necessary for a better life. 

“I’m very grateful,” she says. “I understand the American dream isn’t just to come here. It takes action to make it happen. I have to be creative.”

Mercedes Cardona contributed to this report.

Editor's note: This article has been updated to clarify how long asylum seekers must wait before applying for work authorization. 

Phil Noble/Reuters

Junior doctors hold signs on a picket line outside the Royal University Hospital during a national strike over pay and conditions, in Liverpool, England, Jan. 3, 2024.

If there is one thing Britons are simultaneously most proud of and most concerned about, it’s their National Health Service. The NHS has been under pressure since before the pandemic, from long waitlists for patients to staffing shortages and financial strain.

The longest strike in NHS history, a six-day walkout led by junior doctors, came to a close Tuesday morning. It capped more than a year of stoppages as health workers across the system – who say they are “understaffed, undervalued, and underpaid” – have demanded better conditions.

Those striking say they are fighting for the long-term safety of patients, while opponents say they are doing more harm than good to the system.

What’s behind the most recent junior doctor strike?

Other NHS workers have sought salary increases to compensate for post-pandemic inflation. But junior doctors – the U.K. equivalent of residents, interns, and fellows – are pushing for a raise of 35% to “reverse the steep decline” in real terms of their salaries over the last 15 years.

How much real wages have fallen over that time period depends on how you count them. The British Medical Association, the union representing the strikers, calculates a drop of 26% since 2008, using a measure of inflation that includes housing costs. The government uses the consumer price index, which suggests 16% erosion.

In December, the union rejected the government’s offer of a 3% raise, on top of an average increase of 9% over the past year. Union representatives have clarified they are not expecting the full 35% at once but are waiting for a “credible” new offer.

“Morale across the health service is at an all-time low,” said the medical association in a statement. “The government has the chance to show those doctors they still have a future working in this country.”

As tuition expenses have increased, many young doctors are feeling the stress of student debt, on top of their lack of control over where they work and the length of their working days. There are fears of an exodus of young doctors from the NHS to countries with more attractive conditions, such as Australia, Canada, Ireland, and the United Arab Emirates.

Jonathan Brady/PA/AP

Junior doctors and members of the British Medical Association demonstrate outside St Thomas' Hospital in London, Jan. 3, 2024, as they take to picket lines for six days.

What impact has a year of strikes had?

Other NHS employees, including nurses, ambulance staff, consultants, and senior doctors, have won salary increases by going on strike, which they say has been a last resort to effect change.

Last year, support for the strikes was fairly high. But public opinion has soured somewhat on the most recent walkout, the 10th since the start of 2023. Some say the junior doctors are asking for too much in a standoff that is putting patients at risk during one of the busiest times of the year for hospitals.

“We’ve all got to take this hit in this general economic situation,” one retired Briton told The Guardian.

Parts of the NHS are “skating on very thin ice” with the walkouts, said Matthew Taylor, CEO of the NHS Confederation, in a statement. Over the course of 2023, strikes led to the cancellation of 1.2 million health appointments. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has blamed the striking workers for a record-long waitlist for nearly 8 million health procedures.

Where is the NHS headed from here?

It is clear to most Britons that the system needs reform. Over half the respondents of a survey conducted by The Health Foundation last May said they believed public health will get worse over the next year. Satisfaction with the NHS reached its lowest recorded level in 2022. Nevertheless, the vast majority of Britons continue to support the founding principles behind the NHS: free, high-quality care that is available to all.

Some say the most recent strike reflects a desire to see the NHS live up to those ideals.

“This is not just about the pay itself,” says Anna Gervi Pedersen, a former NHS junior doctor now working as a contractor. She says austerity measures and private finance initiatives have weakened the NHS system over the past 15 years.

“If these policies continue then it is likely the government will seek to see a mixed model of private and public health care, although this is not shown to have better outcomes for health care equity,” she adds.

With Britain’s public finances under stress, others argue that the NHS should make more efficient use of its existing funding rather than receiving more. Some are pushing for increased spending on preventive and social care to avoid higher treatment costs down the line. The number of people over the age of 85 is expected to nearly double by 2050.

When Pricilla Yaor found a dream job that meant moving to the Nigerian capital, Abuja, there was just one hitch: There was no way she could afford rent in the country’s most expensive city.

For the supermarket cashier, it was a struggle to raise the 300,000 naira ($390) she needed for a single-room flat on the outskirts of the city. Like most renters, she was expected to pay her entire annual rent in one lump sum – a typical practice among Nigerian landlords.

Still, armed with a new job, Ms. Yaor thought she could get a loan from the bank. “I was given plenty of forms to fill, asked to bring two sureties, and I was asked if I had any property that I could use as collateral,” she recalls. 

None of this was surprising. In Nigeria, 98% of women have no access to formal credit, limiting their ability to run businesses, pay for studies, or buy a home. Ms. Yaor never returned to the bank. Even if she had met its criteria, she could not afford the 18.75% interest on a bank loan, a typical charge.

Instead, her saving grace – and a lifeline for a growing number of women in Africa’s most populous nation – came in the form of a women-only WhatsApp group that she was invited to by a cousin. Members of the group each pool in an equal sum every month and rotate who receives the payout. “When [my cousin] told me about the group and how I didn’t have to go through all the stress the bank was making me go through, it was like a heavy burden had lifted off my shoulders,” says Ms. Yaor.

There were no processing charges, and a trusted member of the group was appointed as an admin. A month after joining, Ms. Yaor received 400,000 naira ($506).

Soon, she joined another group to raise funds for her younger brother’s school fees. The groups also helped her buy a fridge for her apartment and later a generator to keep the lights on during daily blackouts.

Historical bias

Rotating saving programs, as they’re officially called, provide a safety net across much of Africa. In South Africa, they’re known as stokvels, while in East Africa, chamas play the same role. And in Somalia, hagbad or ayuuto – based on the Italian word aiuto, meaning “help” – bring women together in informal credit unions. 

The use of these programs has skyrocketed in Nigeria recently – aided by technology such as WhatsApp and boosted by inflation that has soared to its highest level in two decades. 

In the past year, some 4 million Nigerians have been pushed into poverty by inflation that has caused eye-watering price rises for everything from food staples to transport. Women have borne the brunt of the country’s debt crisis.

Nigeria has one of the world’s lowest gender parity rankings, languishing at 130th out of 146 ranked countries. Opportunities for women lag in many fields ranging from education to income; on average, their wages are 22% lower than those of men. Meanwhile, culture and tradition have subjected women to the role of caregiver at home, for which they are not paid.

What’s more, women face historical biases embedded in the formal banking system, says Okpetoritse Akperi, a financial expert with a multinational company based in Nigeria.

As in many other developing countries, Nigerian women struggle to get loans because “creditworthiness is typically judged by the ability to repay ... measured using things like income and property,” Ms. Akperi points out. Traditional banks have few branches in the countryside, which means that 55% of Nigeria’s 106 million adults don’t have formal bank accounts. And even when banking services are available, they are not accessible to half of the women who run businesses, who have to rely on cash for all transactions. 

But that is slowly changing. Mobile credit companies such as Branch and FairMoney, boasting a combined 20 million downloads on the Google Play Store, are gaining popularity due to their lenient lending regulations.

“Technology now allows alternative credit assessments, helping women to access financial services without traditional barriers,” says Iyonuluwa Pikuda, a financial analyst with Lagos-based Money Africa. Using WhatsApp lending groups, though, allows users to bypass any kind of formal structure altogether.

A risky necessity  

After finishing school, Joyce Terver struggled for months to find a job. She had joined the ranks of almost a quarter of Nigerians of working age who are unemployed. Eventually, Ms. Terver decided to become a makeup artist.

“A friend was holding a makeup class and insisted I join for free,” she recalls. Still, even after she learned the skill, Ms. Terver struggled to raise money to buy the equipment she needed to start her own business. She found herself turning down jobs due to lack of makeup kits.

Then, one day, another friend posted a link on WhatsApp asking women to join a group to which they would each pool 25,000 naira a month. She signed up, asked to collect the second month, and soon had what she needed to attend to clients.

While the program has few overall downsides, the risks that do exist are not negligible.

“We have had cause to report the admin of a group to the police because she refused to release the funds after everyone had sent in theirs,” Ms. Yaor says of one such experience. But because everyone in the group is known to at least one other person, such matters are usually quickly resolved. In Ms. Yaor’s case, the money was eventually released and the woman remained part of the group.

And she remains undeterred by that experience. Members are united by their shared interest in helping each other raise funds, she points out. And the alternative is the banking sector’s bureaucracy and high interest rates.

“It’s either we continue to trust in this, or nothing,” Ms. Yaor says.

And in a broader sense, adds Ms. Akperi, the financial expert, “banding together is a way to start, at least, to empower” women. 

Reuters

Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu speaks at a news conference in Taipei, Taiwan Jan. 9.

In 2024, about half of the world’s population will vote in a near-record number of elections. One in particular deserves attention – as a model in trust-building. On Jan. 13, a new president will be elected in Taiwan, where citizens have been enlisted to fact-check suspicious news reports, especially ones spread by China.

China’s ruling Communist Party is trying harder than ever to sway the outcome of Taiwan’s election and break the morale of the Taiwanese in maintaining the island’s independence. By most accounts, truth seekers in Taiwan are winning against China’s massive disinformation campaign.

“In the face of such challenges, Taiwan’s civil society shines bright,” stated Moira Whelan, director of the democracy and technology team at the National Democratic Institute in Washington, in a blog post.

The lesson for other democracies is to rely on the integrity of each voter to discern claims on social media about politicians. Taiwanese voters, for example, can now use a chatbot created by civil society database Cofacts to check the accuracy of reports. The new service, open to anyone via a popular messaging app, helps counter China’s propaganda machine, which is now relying on the manipulative power of artificial intelligence.

Many fact-checking services in Taiwan are run by civil society. “We equip our people with the knowledge and tools to refute and report false and misleading information,” said President Tsai Ing-wen, who is finishing two terms since being elected in 2016.

Audrey Tang, the nation’s digital minister, describes these popular defenses against cyber mischief as “nerd immunity,” a play on herd immunity. “That is the main battlefield: The fear, uncertainty, doubt is designed to keep us up at night so we don’t respond to novel threats with novel defenses,” she told The New York Times.

Taiwan is the world’s top target for disinformation, according to the Digital Society Project. It is a practice-ground for China’s efforts worldwide. This election, said presidential front-runner Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, will serve as a “testament to our commitment to democracy.”

After the election, officials in Taipei plan to issue a report on how well the country defeated Beijing’s efforts to influence the election, especially in pitting voters against each other. “We hope this [analysis] will soften the learning curve for fellow democracies in dealing with malign authoritarian influence,” wrote Joseph Wu, foreign minister, in The Economist.

The integrity of the election – and the trust among Taiwanese – will rely heavily on the integrity of citizens in seeking the truth during the campaign and at the voting booth.