In the run-up last month to NATO’s largest military exercises since the Cold War, a top European commander was asked what might happen if the United States quits the alliance, as Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump appears apt to do.

“I have absolutely no doubt that our biggest ally will remain committed,” insisted German Brig. Gen. Gunnar Bruegner, who leads training exercises for NATO’s Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe. 

Confidence in America’s military reliability remains NATO’s public default and its bedrock. But in the face of wavering Western support for Ukraine and an uncertain U.S. election, the alliance has been using these war games to suss out and strengthen its shortfalls.

These are key steps, analysts say, in bolstering the credibility of an alliance that might one day have to survive without U.S. backing. 

Earlier this month, in a small Polish town south of Gdansk, waves of tanks from France, Germany, Spain, and Turkey, among other member nations, crossed Poland’s longest river, the Vistula, on floating bridges designed to test how quickly the alliance can speed reinforcements to the east in the event of a Russian invasion.

“NATO’s really picked up their game to go, ‘How do we get together more? How do we take the lessons learned that we’ve been talking about and understand the challenges?’” says American Maj. Gen. Randolph Staudenraus, a NATO operations specialist, surveying the scene from the riverbank. “We want to be a better fighting force.”

European Union leaders, too, are taking steps to demonstrate, in the face of some serious doubts, that they can defend themselves without U.S. aid – if they must. The question, analysts add, is whether these steps will be enough.

Addressing funding and capability gaps 

Such questions crescendoed after a South Carolina campaign rally last month, when Mr. Trump announced that he would let Russia “do whatever the hell they want” to NATO members “delinquent” in their dues. “I would not protect you,” he added.

These comments – which some European officials likened to a mafia-style shakedown – caused NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, a stolid, Scandinavian sort, to bristle: “Any suggestion that we are not standing up for each other, that we are not going to protect each other, that does undermine the security of all of us.”

Yves Herman/Reuters

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (left) and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg shake hands as they attend a flag-raising ceremony at NATO headquarters following the accession of Sweden to the alliance, in Brussels, March 11, 2024.

Mr. Trump’s remarks harkened back to a longstanding rub in trans-Atlantic relations: Although America and Eastern European nations have long lobbied fellow NATO allies to contribute a minimum of 2% of their gross domestic product to defense spending, by the end of 2023, only 11 of 31 members had met this goal. 

Seven more countries will hit the 2% mark in 2024, NATO officials are quick to point out. They note, too, that overall European military outlays reached a record high of $295 billion last year.

At the same time, EU officials are working to strengthen the Continent’s overall military posture after the war in Ukraine exposed “significant capability gaps” within the European defense industry, including in basics like producing ammunition, notes Sophia Besch, European program fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 

The EU acknowledged in January, for example, that it would fall nearly 50% short of the pledge it made last year to send 1 million artillery rounds to Ukraine by March – a blow to confidence in European cooperation.

The EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said the ammunition would instead be ready by year’s end. Ramping up the bloc’s defense industry, he added, is “a work in progress.” 

In an effort to speed along this work, the European Commission earlier this month released its first-ever defense industrial strategy. The goal is to tap into the economic benefits that come with cooperation – to buy in bulk, buy together, and buy European – much as the EU did during the COVID-19 pandemic, Ms. Besch said in a discussion at the Brookings Institution last week.

The problem is that leaders of EU member nations are often inclined to use their defense budgets to promote protectionism and national political interests – goals that in the moment might seem more pressing than increasing the bloc’s production efficiencies. 

The EU plan has also been undermined by moves like European nations including Poland – which spends upward of 3% of its GDP on defense – buying “an astonishing” $120 billion worth of weapons from American defense contractors, says Nick Witney, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. 

This big spending amounts in part to bilateral bids, he adds, to curry Mr. Trump’s favor in the event of a presidential election win.

The power of NATO

The U.S., for its part, has long encouraged these purchases, both to bolster the American arms industry and to reinforce European dependence on – and deference to – Washington, notes Rajan Menon, director of the grand strategy program at Defense Priorities, a think tank that advocates for more restrained U.S. foreign policy.

Czarek Sokolowski/AP

Polish and other NATO troops take part in military maneuvers in Korzeniewo, Poland, March 4, 2024, as the alliance strengthens its defense capabilities on the eastern flank in the face of Russia's war on Ukraine that has entered its third year.

But the idea that rich European nations can’t ultimately come together to deter and, if necessary, to beat Russia without U.S. aid defies credulity, Dr. Menon says.

Russia has one-third of the population of the EU and ranks an unimpressive 44th on a recent list of the world’s most technologically advanced countries, he notes.

Until recently, Russia had a military force of some 800,000 regulars. In December, the Kremlin put that figure at 1.32 million. This is, perhaps not coincidentally, the rough size of America’s active duty force of 1.33 million. With the recent additions of Finland and Sweden to NATO, alliance countries, excluding the U.S., have a total of 1.53 million active duty troops.

The Russian air force has been largely absent in Ukraine, and much of Moscow’s navy is now at the bottom of the Black Sea thanks to Kyiv’s blows, Mr. Witney adds. “It’s very easy to assume that the Russians are 10 feet tall and work yourself into a panic.”

And there’s good reason to believe that Russia takes NATO very seriously, even if some U.S. politicians don’t. 

“I’ve long felt that Georgia first and then Ukraine got hit in the neck precisely because they were not members of NATO – and that attacking NATO would be a wholly different enterprise for Russia to contemplate,” Mr. Witney says.

Considerable questions remain about how a nuclear deterrence umbrella would work without the U.S. But given a potential presidential victory for Mr. Trump and growing bipartisan U.S. concern about China’s martial aims, Europe would be wise to grapple with its overall defense posture while bolstering its own collective military might sooner rather than later, analysts say.

“Europe should have the means to defend itself,” Dr. Menon says, “in the event that 1-800-Uncle Sam fails to get a response.” 

Hemanshi Kamani/Reuters

Rahul Gandhi, a senior leader of India's main opposition Congress party, attends a roadshow in Mumbai, India, March 16, at the end of his two-month march across the country.

Tens of thousands gathered in Mumbai’s sprawling Shivaji Park this weekend to see Rahul Gandhi and other opposition leaders formally launch their campaign for next month’s general election.

The mega rally marked the end of Mr. Gandhi’s second cross-country march – a 15-state journey aimed at rallying voters against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – and featured numerous jabs at Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

But while the Congress party star and grandson of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi marched over 4,000 miles, the opposition’s main weapon against the BJP was splintering. 

The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.), a coalition of 28 political parties opposing the BJP, has faced significant setbacks in recent months. 

High-profile members have abandoned the alliance due to ideological differences, difficult seat-sharing negotiations, and personality clashes. Analysts and former I.N.D.I.A. members have cited the Congress party’s self-centered approach as a key reason for the coalition’s underwhelming performance. Another factor: an overall lack of confidence that it can beat a no-holds-barred campaign by the BJP, which has used Hindu nationalism to rally and expand its support base. 

“They don’t seem to believe they can succeed,” says political commentator Neerja Chowdhury, author of “How Prime Ministers Decide.”

She notes that several opposition leaders are also under pressure by federal investigation agencies, contributing to a sense of demoralization. On top of that, data released Sunday shows the BJP pulling in $814 million in funding via India’s recently scrapped electoral bonds system – five times the amount of the second-highest earner. “The perception battle is being fought and won by Narendra Modi,” she says, and in the face of a political Goliath, “the general tendency [among some opposition parties] is to hold my little flock together for a future battle.”

Alliance founder switches sides

I.N.D.I.A. was established last June when Nitish Kumar, chief minister of Bihar, convened a meeting of 15 opposition parties hoping to collectively run against the BJP, which swept 303 out of 543 parliamentary seats during the 2019 election. From the start, the largest member and de facto leader of I.N.D.I.A. was the 138-year-old Congress, which won 52 seats. 

The first major blow to the coalition came in January, when Mr. Kumar, leader of the Janata Dal United in Bihar, decided to leave I.N.D.I.A. to join the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance.

Santosh Kumar/Hindustan Times/Sipa USA/Reuters

Laborers prepare campaign vans for Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who left the I.N.D.I.A. coalition in January, in Patna, India, March 15.

Kishan Chand Tyagi, general secretary of the Janata Dal United and a former member of Parliament, defends Mr. Kumar’s decision, blaming the Congress’ uncooperative stance for his party’s departure. He says that to effectively challenge the BJP, Congress needs internal reform. 

“Our reason to quit the alliance is the apathetic and disappointing attitude of the Congress party,” says Mr. Tyagi. “They would never discuss anything with its alliance partners. There is a toxic caucus in the Congress, and till it is removed there will be no improvement. Today’s Congress party is incapable of fighting BJP and Modi both.”

Friction over seat-sharing

Another pain point was Congress’ focus on the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra (“Unite India Justice March”), led by Mr. Gandhi, whom the party presents as a future prime minister.

Critics say Congress could have spent this critical time ironing out issues within the alliance. “The entire party was focused on this [march], neglecting seat adjustments or planning with opposition leaders,” says Ms. Chowdhury. “Some suggest he [Mr. Gandhi] is focused on 2029, not 2024.”

Internal tensions were apparent on the road as well.

Despite pulling large crowds throughout the two-month march, Mr. Gandhi encountered difficulty in securing the participation of West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who heads the Trinamool Congress party, due to friction over seat-sharing arrangements in the state. Ms. Banerjee has decided to contest all 42 parliamentary seats of her state independently, after seat-sharing talks with Congress failed.

Taking on the BJP

To be sure, I.N.D.I.A. still has a cohort of enthusiastic backers. At the mega rally in Mumbai, Mr. Gandhi stood alongside leaders from several different states and parties, including Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray from Maharashtra; Muthuvel Karunanidhi Stalin from Tamil Nadu; Farooq Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti from Jammu and Kashmir; and Tejashwi Yadav from Bihar. Each represents a unique regional party. 

In Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest state, contributing 80 members to Parliament, the Congress has struck a seat-sharing agreement with the Samajwadi Party. Those adhering to the alliance are adamant that the BJP has failed to address people’s concerns.

“We will remind people that the BJP, once vocal about inflation, is now taxing basic commodities like milk,” says Fakhrul Hassan, spokesperson for the Samajwadi Party. “During the BJP’s decadelong rule, they’ve failed to generate employment for the youth, leading to increased inflation. We trust the public to oust the BJP’s anti-people government. Our choice for prime minister will be determined later.”

Yet it wouldn’t be surprising, says Ms. Chowdhury, if the public does not trust the opposition, choosing instead to join the BJP’s camp.

“They possess resources, machinery, and a charismatic leader who reigns as the king of Hindu hearts, leveraging Hindu nationalism,” she says. “[Mr. Modi] appeals to aspirational India, offering promises of progress and prosperity. ... On the opposing side, there’s a lack of clear leadership, a coherent narrative, and the determination to win or mount a substantial challenge.”

Matt Rourke/AP/File

A sale sign stands outside a home in Wyndmoor, Pennsylvania, in 2022. The National Association of Realtors agreed on March 15, 2024, to change key rules to settle lawsuits claiming that agent commissions are artificially inflated.

Selling a home in the United States could be on the verge of getting cheaper for sellers.

Indeed, more of the proceeds of a home sale are likely to flow to sellers and less to real estate agents if a federal judge accepts a proposed settlement from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

This deal would allow sellers more latitude to negotiate down agent’s fees.

Buyers would have the same latitude, and some could avoid all fees. But if they go it alone, buyers will likely be making the biggest purchase of a lifetime without an agent’s experience and negotiation savvy. 

What specifically will change?

Since the 1990s, sellers wanting to list their homes in the NAR’s database – a key resource for homebuyers – have had to include up to a 5% or 6% agent commission in the sale price. Typically, their real estate agent would take half of that and give the other half to the agent representing the successful homebuyer. Under the new settlement, buyers and sellers will instead negotiate the agents’ fees upfront.

When will this change take place?

The NAR proposes to start the new process in mid-July. But it won’t happen fast. Industry observers expect an evolution as buyers, sellers, and agents adapt to the new environment.  

Why is this happening now?

In a class-action suit by home sellers in Missouri, the NAR and two major real estate companies were found guilty last fall of keeping commissions artificially high. The companies agreed last year to change their commission practices in exchange for reduced fines.

Facing a huge fine, a similar suit in Illinois, and a U.S. Justice Department push to reopen an antitrust case about commissions, the NAR on Friday also came to terms, proposing to scrap the current system and pay $418 million in fines.

Who are the winners?

Home sellers should clearly come out ahead. Instead of paying a commission to both the seller’s and buyer’s agents, they will be better able to negotiate those fees upfront.

Some estimates suggest fees could come down by half. On a $400,000 home, roughly the median selling price of an existing home, that would amount to a savings of up to $12,000.

Another potential winner: discount real estate companies that already offer lower fees and may attract additional customers in the new landscape.

For homebuyers, the outlook is cloudier. With sellers no longer required to compensate the buyer’s agent, the buyer will have to cover their agent’s fees, or negotiate so that the seller will pay all or part of them. Or they can forgo a buyer’s agent and manage a transaction on their own. While saving on commission, they would be going without a professional’s help on a decision that will affect their daily lives and finances.

Agents point out that commissions have always been negotiable and that, as seller’s agents, working with buyers without a buyer’s agent will increase their workload. 

Who are the losers?

Real estate agents are likely to see revenues fall as commissions for buyer’s agents drop when the new rules take hold. That will be particularly hard on the least experienced agents, who don’t have the client base to survive. Lower commissions may cause many to leave and fewer newcomers to enter the industry. Experienced agents also will likely face lower revenues if the buyers’ side of the business drops off. But the prospect of fewer real estate agents may mean that those who stay in the business get more listings.

In a study last fall, business professors Sonia Gilbukh of Baruch College and Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham of Yale constructed a theoretical model to see what would happen if fixed commissions for selling agents were scrapped. (They kept the fee for buyer’s agents constant.) They found that sellers’ commissions would fall to around 1.5% on average, and that just over half of the nation’s real estate agents would leave the industry. 

“The industry has long had way too many agents,” says Michaela Hellman, a longtime Boston-area agent. “I just hope the ones that leave the business aren’t the experienced, ethical veterans.”

From all her years of caring for wounded soldiers, the Ukrainian nurse recounts one transcendent moment of comfort she provided early in this war that she says she’ll never forget – and that made all the difference.

Not long after Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Oksana Sokhan found herself in an evacuation minibus, wedged between two stricken soldiers in the dark, as the vehicle tried to safely get away from the front line.

The wounded men were agitated and anxious, disoriented and determined to get up and move. Ms. Sokhan had no sedatives – but she had within her the key to calming them.

She began singing Ukrainian lullabies to the wounded fighters, and stroking them as a mother would.

Their anxiety eased. If she stopped the soothing singing for a moment, she saw their anxiety surge again.

“I was surprised myself that it worked – surely it worked on a subconscious level for both of them,” recalls the nurse, who wears an amused smile, purple medical scrubs, and a dog tag on a chain.

She tells her story during a lull in treating combat wounded at a makeshift surgical center – called a “stabilization point” – near Ukraine’s southern front line, south of Zaporizhzhia.

“I didn’t know what else to do; we didn’t have any medicine,” says the nurse. She carries herself with the confidence of someone playing a constant critical role – without fanfare, like everyone else in this medical unit – helping to save the lives of thousands wounded in Ukraine’s war.

Ms. Sokhan still laughs about that moment of serendipitous support with the lullabies in the minibus, and about how – after they had all arrived safely at the hospital – a nurse came out to report that one of the men was convinced his mother had been with him during the evacuation.

“In my real life, I am not singing,” Ms. Sokhan says, smiling wryly. “I don’t have a voice.”

“We all live for one day”

Ms. Sokhan may be just one senior nurse, but she is emblematic of the legions of Ukrainian military medics devoted to preserving the lives of the country’s outnumbered forces.

For years a member of the 128th Separate Transcarpathian Mountain Assault Brigade, she has seen a whirlwind of casualties at different points along the front line since Russia’s all-out invasion.

Scott Peterson/Getty Images/The Christian Science Monitor

Ukrainian senior nurse Oksana Sokhan works in a treatment room near the southern front in Zaporizhzhia oblast, Ukraine, Feb. 22, 2024.

Ukraine’s liberation of Kherson in September 2022, for example, and the monthslong grinding fight for Bakhmut late last year pushed Ms. Sokhan and her colleagues to the limit. During both campaigns, the medical teams regularly saw 100 casualties come through their doors daily. From Bakhmut, the nurse describes an “endless flow,” with surges as high as 150 a day.

“Everyone here, we all live for one day. If we survive today, it’s good,” she says. “I’ve learned not to not build plans.”

Ms. Sokhan never expected to be a front-line nurse in Russia’s war, either. Originally from Ukraine’s eastern region of Luhansk – which traditionally has had some pro-Russian sentiment, and was fully, if unilaterally, annexed by Russia in September 2022 – she was a decade ago at the opposite end of the country, in the far west, taking care of people at a sprawling resort.

When Russian troops invaded Ukrainian Crimea in 2014, she recounts, her daughter and son-in-law, who were on the peninsula to “live close to the sea,” called her in alarm. They told her the Russians had issued an ultimatum: Take Russian passports and denounce Ukraine, or leave.

“‘There was nothing to decide; we’re coming back to Ukraine,’” Ms. Sokhan recalls her daughter telling her. They moved back to their hometown of Lysychansk, but within a month, Russian and pro-Russian proxies were there, too, seizing control.

The family had to walk more than 4 miles, with a 4-year-old and all the belongings they could carry, before fleeing west.

“I got very angry,” recalls Ms. Sokhan. “I quit that job and went to the military office to sign up for the army.”

After overcoming initial hesitation by the Ukrainian army about accepting a native of Luhansk, Ms. Sokhan entered the military, and has been on every combat rotation for nearly a decade.

The most difficult thing?

“Not to see your dear ones, not to see your family,” says Ms. Sokhan. She was shocked by how much her now 15-year-old granddaughter had grown, after seeing her for the first time in two years.

“When I was leaving, I had to bow to kiss her. Now she has to bow to kiss me,” Ms. Sokhan says with a laugh.

“Friends, not just colleagues”

The camaraderie wrought by difficult shared experiences keeps the unit together, the medics say.

“We don’t see if it is day or night; we are working all the time,” says surgeon Anton Yakovenko, noting that the Bakhmut fight produced a heavy flow of casualties every day, for months.

Scott Peterson/Getty Images/The Christian Science Monitor

Ukrainian surgeon Anton Yakovenko stands in a treatment room, as medics of the 128th Separate Transcarpathian Mountain Assault Brigade wait for casualties, in Zaporizhzhia oblast, Ukraine, Feb. 22, 2024.

“We are really like friends, not just colleagues,” he says. “We use some humor; we eat together; we speak about our families. It helps to have these great people around me.”

“The main challenge is that we get tired of everything,” says unit leader Oleh Bihari. “We’re tired of being tired; there is no end in sight.”

Indeed, the trajectory of the conflict has weighed on these medics, as it has on soldiers up and down the 600-mile-long front. Optimism of swift Ukrainian advances that accompanied significant gains in late 2022 were erased by a failed counteroffensive in 2023.

That has been followed by a subsequent shift, today, to defense only – with American military support remaining tied up in Congress.

For her part, Ms. Sokhan focuses on doing what she can to contribute to the well-being of Ukraine’s wounded soldiers.

“We want to save everyone,” she says. “Of course, it’s very important to see the results of your work, because when they come here” the soldiers are traumatized, in pain, “and when they leave ... they are already waving sometimes.”

She has also been impressed by the singular devotion to continue the fight, which she herself exemplifies.

“What’s uplifting and inspiring are our guys, people who come here wounded, who are cold and hungry and dirty,” says Ms. Sokhan. “But all they say is, ‘Doc, quickly get me fixed up; I’ve got to get back to my guys.’

“How could this not inspire you?”

Oleksandr Naselenko supported reporting for this story.

The water is around 31 degrees Fahrenheit, but they’ve jumped in anyway. At the Memphremagog Winter Swimming Festival, the thrill is in the chill.

Sporting funky hats, the swimmers shriek and cheer as they wind through a narrow pool cut from 12-inch-thick lake ice. When the swimmers reach the end, bundled-up volunteers on the sidelines help them climb back onto the frozen surface, wrap them in coats, and lead them to dry land.

The idea started 10 years ago as a less-than-serious Facebook post, says Phil White, a self-described “water rat” who founded this festival at Lake Memphremagog, which stretches from northern Vermont into Quebec.

He already had organized a summer swim competition each July on the glacial lake and knew many open-water swimmers. To his surprise, 41 swimmers turned out for the festival that first winter. This year, about 175 took the plunge.

The popularity of ice swimming in the past few years is a ripple effect from the coronavirus pandemic, noted several swimmers at the festival. When pools shuttered during lockdowns, many indoor swimmers ventured outside and began swimming in open water. And some kept returning to their local lakes, ponds, or ocean beaches even well after summer ended.

“All of a sudden, we all became a community of open-water outdoor swimmers,” said Liz Fry, a volunteer at the festival. She is the oldest swimmer to complete the Oceans Seven, the crossing of seven open-water channels around the world.

Darcie Rivard, whose two teenage daughters competed at the festival, says that among ice swimmers, “if you have a dream, you can probably find someone to help you chase it.” 

Riley Robinson/Staff

Festival competitors donning spirited hats pose after a race. Ice swimming can be risky to practice alone, so many swimmers are part of groups that arrange to take dips together.

Riley Robinson/Staff

Volunteers walk the edge of the ice pool during the Memphremagog Winter Swimming Festival. The poles are for pulling swimmers out if they need assistance.

Riley Robinson/Staff

A volunteer helps Anna Valeria Zuccolotto, who traveled from La Paz, Mexico, to participate in the festival, bundle up after she completed the 25-meter hat competition.

Riley Robinson/Staff

Phil White, who describes himself as a “water rat,” founded the festival 10 years ago.

Riley Robinson/Staff

A festival volunteer walks on frozen Lake Memphremagog. Many ice swimmers say plunging into frigid water brings a special rush or helps clear the mind.

REUTERS

An AI (Artificial Intelligence) sign is seen at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai, China July 6, 2023.

The idea that artificial intelligence will be the most transformative technology in this century has already begun to transform authoritarian China. Last week, the country’s premier, Li Qiang, said China must allow its AI researchers a relaxed environment to achieve scientific breakthroughs. He promised more leeway for a “trial and error” culture in AI labs.

His nod to greater freedom in AI research may be a breakthrough itself. It challenges China’s top-down control of society, the economy, and science. In early March, the ruling Communist Party unveiled a plan for urgent progress in high-end technologies, starting with AI. Party leader Xi Jinping said China’s failings in scientific discoveries are an “Achilles’ heel” in returning to high economic growth and creating homegrown technology.

During a tour of AI labs last week, Premier Li was told that China is still heavily reliant on AI models from the United States and elsewhere. China faces “a serious lack of self-sufficiency” in creating AI advances, according to researchers at the Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence, a private, nonprofit institution. The nation’s efforts in AI are “littered with many essential challenges in theory and technologies.”

The ruling party’s urgency for fundamental advances in science was reflected in the government’s new budget. The largest increase in funding – 10% – will be for science and technology. Basic research will see a 13.1% increase. Yet as the South China Morning Post reported, “Some experts warn forcing a political agenda on the science community could come at the cost of healthy scientific inquiry.”

Creativity, in other words, is not easily bought. “What is lacking now is the political will to nurture creative endeavour and to allow a younger generation of researchers to question conventional wisdom,” Yu Jie, a research fellow at the London-based think tank Chatham House, wrote in the Financial Times. “Ultimately, innovation takes time to bear fruit. It is a risky business that will require the party leadership to loosen some control.”

Such concern may account for Premier Li’s vow of some freedom of thought and greater curiosity for AI researchers. Inspiration can be found in anyone, not just in China’s ruling party.