2024
June
27
Thursday

Monitor Daily Podcast

June 27, 2024
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TODAY’S INTRO

What borders can tell us about ourselves

Clayton Collins
Director of Editorial Innovation

There are so many contentious borders in the news. You’ll hear one talked about in tonight’s U.S. presidential debate. Borders are necessary protectors of sovereignty, or barriers to better lives, or both. 

Today, Peter Rainer reviews “Green Border,” a scripted drama shot in documentary style. In black and white, it depicts life in 2021 along a forbidding, wooded exclusion zone on the border of Poland and Belarus. 

There is dark brutality in the film. But its director focuses more on morality, on choices, on the pull of humanity. “What she offers up, in the face of so much suffering,” Peter writes, “is a higher aspiration.” 

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Abortion ruling shows a Supreme Court splintered over emergency care

Overturning Roe v. Wade left a lot of uncertainty about what constitutes emergency care. On Thursday, the Supreme Court left those questions unresolved, at least for now.

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For now, doctors in Idaho can perform abortions in certain emergency situations without running afoul of the state’s strict abortion ban, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled Thursday in a procedural but emotionally fractured 6-3 decision.

The country continues to grapple with the legal and medical fallout from the court striking down a constitutional right to abortion two years ago.

The unsigned, one-sentence per curiam opinion does not resolve the central question in the case: Does a federal law requiring doctors to perform abortions in certain medical emergencies preempt Idaho’s law, which allows a doctor to perform the procedure only to save the life of the mother?

And this issue, along with other abortion questions, is likely to return to the Supreme Court soon. A majority of the justices don’t appear keen to face them, however.

“It’s pretty clear that ... there are issues in the states, either between the states or between the states and the federal government, that will require Supreme Court intervention,” says Naomi Cahn, a professor at the University of Virginia Law School.

“The court is splintered on this issue,” she adds. And “you just see [it] deferring any further consideration of abortion.”

Abortion ruling shows a Supreme Court splintered over emergency care

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Mark Schiefelbein/AP
The Supreme Court, shown on June 27, in Washington, on Thursday issued a 6-3 ruling that Idaho doctors may perform abortions in certain medical emergencies.

Doctors in Idaho can perform abortions in certain emergency situations without running afoul of the state’s strict abortion ban, at least for now, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in a procedural but emotionally fractured decision.

The 6-3 dismissal of Moyle v. U.S. comes as the country continues to grapple with the legal and medical fallout from the court striking down a constitutional right to abortion two years ago. The majority's decision on Thursday to dismiss the case as improvidently granted surprised some court watchers expecting the justices to further restrict abortion access. However, that surprise mostly landed on Wednesday, when the decision was briefly available on the court’s website and was spotted by Bloomberg reporters.

The unsigned, one-sentence per curiam opinion does not resolve the central question in the case: Does a federal law requiring doctors to perform abortions in certain medical emergencies preempt Idaho’s law, which allows a doctor to perform the procedure only to save the life of the mother? All nine justices put their names to at least one of four separate opinions that accompanied the decision, making clear the sharp divisions on the court over that question.

And this issue, along with other abortion questions, is likely to return to the Supreme Court soon. A majority of the justices don’t appear keen to face them, however.

“It’s pretty clear that ... there are issues in the states, either between the states or between the states and the federal government, that will require Supreme Court intervention,” says Naomi Cahn, a professor at the University of Virginia Law School.

“The court is splintered on this issue,” she adds. And “you just see [it] deferring any further consideration of abortion.”

Kyle Green/AP/File
Jennifer Adkins and her husband, John, from Caldwell, Idaho, are suing the state after they had to travel to Oregon for medical care after their fetus was diagnosed with a fatal abnormality that threatened Ms. Adkins’ health. On June 27, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that doctors in Idaho may continue to perform abortions in certain medical emergencies.

What constitutes a medical emergency?

The central question in Moyle is whether a provision of Idaho’s abortion ban is trumped by a conflicting federal law. The case dates from the immediate aftermath of the Supreme Court overturning the constitutional right to abortion in the 2022 case Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health.

In the ensuing months, Idaho passed a law prohibiting abortion in almost all circumstances. One exception held that a doctor could perform an abortion if it “was necessary to prevent the death of the pregnant woman.” Before that law could take effect, the Biden administration sued the state, claiming that Idaho’s law conflicted with the federal Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (EMTALA). The government says the federal law requires a doctor to perform an abortion if they believe it’s necessary to “stabiliz[e]” a pregnant woman’s “emergency medical condition.”

A district court judge ruled in favor of the Biden administration, and stayed that provision of the law pending further appeals. An appeals court declined to put that ruling on hold while appeals continued. Before the appeals court issued a ruling on the merits, as is customary, the Supreme Court granted an emergency appeal by Idaho and allowed the law to go into effect in full while it considered the case.

The high court’s maneuvers have caused significant confusion on the ground. For five months doctors in Idaho have not known if or when they can legally perform abortions. The state’s largest hospital system said that in the three months after the court let Idaho’s abortion ban take full, temporary effect, it had to airlift six patients to other states for emergency care. In the 12 months prior, they had only needed to airlift one patient.

“We don't do elective abortions. We treat women who are having pregnancy-related emergencies,” says Jessica Kroll, an emergency medical doctor at St. Alphonse Health System in Boise.

It’s “really strange,” she adds. “Emergency [doctors] are now the center of the abortion battle.”

On Thursday, the justices effectively let both laws temporarily take effect. They punted to the appeals court the preemption question, but not without writing over 40 pages of separate opinions displaying pointed disagreements that will likely need to be resolved in the coming years.

“It's not a win for abortion rights in any kind of meaningful sense,” says Mary Ziegler, a professor at the University of California, Davis School of Law.

Abortion access in Idaho may change in the short term, but the case is effectively “starting all over at zero,” she adds. “There’s a lot of chaos that's been created in the aftermath of Dobbs. There's a lot of uncertainty about what physicians can and cannot do. And this isn't going to clarify anything.”

So what, if anything, changed?

The clearest explanation for Thursday’s unsigned per curiam opinion can probably be found in a concurring opinion written by Justice Amy Coney Barrett and joined by Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

In her concurrence, Justice Barrett wrote that in the months after the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case, the facts changed to the point that there was no serious conflict left for the court to resolve.

“The parties’ [evolving] litigating positions have rendered the scope of the dispute unclear, at best,” she wrote. “I am now convinced that these cases are no longer appropriate for early resolution.”

Specifically, she noted the government’s claims during oral argument that federal conscience protections allow hospitals and doctors to refuse to perform abortions, even in the EMTALA context. She pointed to another government concession that EMTALA doesn’t require abortions as a means to stabilize a pregnant woman’s mental health.

On the other side, she noted concessions made by Idaho during oral argument that its abortion ban does permit abortions for certain specific medical conditions, even if the threat to the woman’s life isn’t imminent.

“Idaho represents that its exception is broader than the United States fears, and the United States represents that EMTALA’s requirement is narrower than Idaho fears,” wrote Justice Barrett.

“The dramatic narrowing of the dispute,” she added, means that “Idaho’s ability to enforce its law remains almost entirely intact.”

Some of her colleagues disputed, in strong terms, the notion that the dispute has been narrowed. In a dissent, Justice Samuel Alito, joined by Justices Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch, described the court’s “about-face” as “baffling.”

“Nothing legally relevant has occurred” since the court agreed to hear the case, he wrote, and the government’s preemption theory is “plainly unsound.”

The preemption question “is as ripe for decision as it ever will be,” he added. “Apparently, the court has simply lost the will to decide the easy but emotional and highly politicized question that the case presents.”

Meanwhile, writing separately, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson agreed that resolving the EMTALA preemption question “remains as imperative as ever.”

“Today’s decision is not a victory for pregnant patients in Idaho. It is delay,” she wrote. “This court had a chance to bring clarity and certainty to this tragic situation, and we have squandered it.”

Idaho “changed [its] tune about the exact types of medical care that fall in the gap between state and federal law,” she added.

“Some of my colleagues appear to view this convenient rhetorical maneuver as a material change that (also conveniently) reduces the conflict between state and federal law to the point that a ruling from this Court is no longer warranted,” she continued. “But the fundamentals of this dispute remain the same.”

Are the justices ready for another Dobbs?

On the actual preemption question, the justices divided into a triad. While Justices Alito, Thomas, and Gorsuch agreed that the Idaho law isn’t preempted by EMTALA, Justice Jackson and Justices Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor concluded the opposite. In her concurrence, Justice Barrett posited that the two laws can co-exist.

How courts will come down on the issue is unclear, but the division between the justices – and some immediate reactions to the ruling – suggest that complex, confusing debates lie ahead. 

“It’s going to become continually clear that pro-life laws allow for women to get critical medical care,” says Stephen Billy, vice president for state affairs at Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America.

Meanwhile, in a statement, Idaho Attorney General Raúl Labrador said he “will continue my outreach to doctors and hospitals across Idaho to ensure that they understand what our law requires.”

What does this mean for doctors? And for pregnant women with medical complications? In Idaho, Thursday’s ruling has brought a degree of clarity to emergency rooms that they have been sorely lacking in the past five months, says Dr. Kroll, who is also president of the Idaho College of Emergency Physicians.

“We [were] on the phone with risk [management] and lawyers, while our patient right there needs immediate medical care, not legal mediation,” she recalls.

With the high court’s ruling “we get to go back to just taking care of patients [and] getting people appropriate standard of care,” she adds.

“The bad part of it is that it is like we're back in a waiting pattern again. ... It kind of puts me back on the edge of my seat.”

A federal appeals court will now pick up the Moyle case. Whatever that court decides may be appealed back to the Supreme Court. In a separate case out of Texas, the Biden administration is challenging a Texas abortion ban it claims is preempted by EMTALA.

Whether the high court has the appetite for resolving these issues is unclear, however. The justices heard two abortion cases this term – the other concerned an effort to ban a widely used abortion pill – and both cases were resolved on procedural grounds without confronting the more contentious merits questions.

“The court is really struggling with this issue,” says Professor Cahn. “Dobbs was a major decision. It simply might not be ready to issue another major decision like that.”

Today’s news briefs

• High court decisions: The U.S. Supreme Court issues four of eight expected decisions on issues ranging from air pollution to securities fraud. Undecided cases include ones that could reshape the law on anything from abortion to social media. 
• Honduras’ former president sentenced: Juan Orlando Hernández has been sentenced to 45 years in prison and fined $8 million for enabling drug traffickers to use his military and national police force to help get tons of cocaine into the United States. 
• Canadian wildfire pollution: Researchers calculate that catastrophic warming-fueled wildfires in Canada last year pumped more heat-trapping carbon dioxide into the air than India did by burning fossil fuels. 
• Pandas to San Diego: A pair of giant pandas leave China for the United States, where they will be cared for at the San Diego Zoo as part of an ongoing conservation partnership between the two nations.

Read these news briefs.

DEI backlash gains momentum on campus and in boardrooms

A conservative-led effort is rolling back diversity, equity, and inclusion policies following a wave of DEI hiring and pledges sparked by the murder of George Floyd in 2020.

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When trustees at North Carolina’s flagship public university voted last month to divert $2.3 million from diversity, equity, and inclusion programs to its police department, they were pushing on an open door. In state capitals and on university boards, a conservative-led rollback of DEI policies and practices in higher education has gained fresh momentum.

U.S. corporations are also cutting back on diversity initiatives and laying off DEI staff. 

To conservatives, and to some on the left, the push in recent years for greater diversity on campuses and in boardrooms has gone too far. They say it elevates racial and gender identities over individual merit, and imposes ideological boundaries. Defenders argue that diversity should be a shared goal and that inequities from historic discrimination require action. 

Even some supporters of efforts to serve a diverse student body welcome a recalibration of DEI policy. “My hope is that we can get to a place where we have a reasonable balance between prioritizing diversity and prioritizing other things,” says Brian Rosenberg, who teaches at the Harvard Graduate School of Education.

DEI backlash gains momentum on campus and in boardrooms

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Makiya Seminera/AP/File
Students sit inside an encampment protest at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, April 29, 2024. The university's board of trustees has since approved a change that would divert $2.3 million of diversity funding to go toward public safety and policing.

When trustees at North Carolina’s flagship public university voted last month to divert $2.3 million from diversity, equity, and inclusion programs to its police department they were pushing on an open door. In state capitals and on university boards, a conservative-led rollback of DEI policies and practices in higher education has gained fresh momentum after a tumultuous year of student protests over Israel’s war in Gaza. 

U.S. corporations are also cutting back on diversity initiatives and laying off DEI staff, following a wave of hiring and pledges after nationwide protests in 2020 over the murder of George Floyd. A LinkedIn study of senior executive hiring found that “chief diversity officer” was the fastest-growing category in 2020 and 2021 but fell off a cliff in 2022. At some Wall Street banks, the cooling interest in DEI and threat of litigation on grounds of reverse discrimination have led managers to stop prioritizing women and minority candidates in recruitment and promotions. 

To conservatives, and to some on the left, the push in recent years for greater diversity on campuses and in boardrooms has gone too far. They say it elevates racial and gender identities over individual merit, and imposes ideological boundaries, making DEI programs their own form of discrimination. Defenders argue that diversity should be a shared goal and that historic discrimination has produced inequities that require action. 

Even some supporters of efforts to serve a diverse student body welcome a recalibration of DEI policy. “There is some necessary element of correction that’s going on,” says Brian Rosenberg, former president of Macalester College who teaches at the Harvard Graduate School of Education. “My hope is that we can get to a place where we have a reasonable balance between prioritizing diversity and prioritizing other things.”

The pushback on DEI policies comes a year after the Supreme Court ruled that race-conscious admissions of students at public and private universities were unconstitutional, upending how selective colleges and universities decide whom to admit. Conservative activists who filed this case and others have begun to put pressure on business leaders over their diversity initiatives. Earlier this month, a federal appeals court blocked a grant program for Black women entrepreneurs after a lawsuit claimed that it was discriminatory.  

Timothy D. Easley/AP
Members of the Kentucky House of Representatives listen during a floor discussion of a House bill in Frankfort, Feb. 1, 2024. The Kentucky House voted on March 15 to end funding for diversity, equity, and inclusion offices at public universities.

While pro-Palestinian protests and incidents of antisemitism have shined a spotlight on student politics, the pushback to DEI on campuses predates the war in Gaza. Conservative groups began circulating model anti-DEI legislation last year, part of a broader ideological battle over how issues like race, gender, and sexuality are taught. Republican lawmakers in 20 states have filed bills to restrict or ban DEI initiatives, and some have become law. 

One flash point has been the requirement for job applicants at selective universities to provide a diversity statement, which critics compare to an ideological loyalty pledge. Both Harvard’s largest faculty and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology recently said such statements are no longer mandatory, joining some public universities that have ended their use, often under political pressure.  

Impact on campus 

Still, even as universities scramble to revise their diversity, equity, and inclusion policies, the immediate impact on campus culture may be limited. 

On the right, the idea that DEI stands in the way of free speech, and imposes progressive groupthink, has become a mantra. But while one study found a positive correlation between larger DEI bureaucracies and reduced tolerance of conservative speakers, the author, a political scientist, argued that the effect was likely too small to move the needle on illiberal attitudes among students. Social justice activists often arrive on campus armed with political ideals that percolate online, not in the classroom. 

Cutting DEI programs also offers a way to reduce head count at universities that face budget pressure after a long period of expansion in administrative spending. While DEI offices only represent a small percentage of this spending, they present a tempting target. 

“There’s a real need to tackle administrative bloat as well as mission creep at universities,” says Marty Kotis, a trustee of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He applauds UNC-Chapel Hill’s decision to divert DEI funding to public safety and a separate vote on May 23 by the governors of the broader 17-institution UNC system to rewrite its diversity and inclusion policy

The new policy, which replaced a 2019 one that required all schools to submit an annual diversity and inclusion report, requires that UNC schools must “ensure equality of all persons & viewpoints.” 

Mr. Kotis and other conservatives say identity-based DEI programs for certain groups and not others can undermine cohesiveness on campuses and discourage intermingling. “Sometimes when you bring people in and you say you want them to learn and come together, then you separate them into these separate groups ... it can create more divisiveness,” he says. 

John Hanna/AP
Students walk down Jayhawk Boulevard through the main University of Kansas campus, April 12, 2024, in Lawrence. The Kansas Board of Regents, which oversees higher education, has drafted a new policy against requiring diversity, equity, and inclusion statements on applications for students and those seeking jobs or promotions.

Diversity officials say this misconstrues their work and misses the bigger picture, which is that access to higher education isn’t equally distributed. An emphasis on equity, as opposed to on equality, is a way to give students from communities that are underrepresented a chance to participate fully and to flourish, in ways that a meritocracy, or what some call colorblind admissions, doesn’t always allow. 

“We can provide them the support that they need to be successful here. There’s a culture that we want to create that is a supportive culture that acknowledges differences and addresses the way in which we engage with each other across differences,” says Paulette Granberry Russell, president of the National Association of Diversity Officers in Higher Education.

Ms. Granberry Russell says state legislators are using the backlash to DEI to assert greater control over public universities, not simply on diversity initiatives and hiring. “They’ve characterized higher education almost as though it is the enemy,” she says. 

Even some skeptics of DEI say higher education institutions still need to find ways to support a diverse student body. Calls for a return to meritocracy overlook the fact that colleges have historically chosen whom to include and whom to exclude, and dismantling diversity offices could turn the clock back, they say. 

“I fear that taking away these programs may also impact the graduation rates and success rates of our underrepresented folks,” says a senior diversity officer at a private university in a Republican-run state, who asked not to be identified. “I think their educational experience is diminished by the rollback.” 

Partisan divide

As with many issues, there’s a growing partisan divide on higher education: In 2015, a majority of Americans expressed confidence in colleges and universities, according to Gallup. By 2023, that had fallen to below half, led by sharp declines among Republicans, whose confidence levels fell by 37 percentage points. Previous Gallup polls found that Democrats unhappy with higher education cited rising costs, while among Republicans the main complaint was liberal bias. 

The use of diversity statements in hiring has only added to this sense of exclusion of views that don’t align rigidly with progressive ideas on equity. The University of California system was among the first to adopt this practice and has faced litigation as a result, but in January a federal judge dismissed a case against UC Santa Cruz. Diversity officials say potential hires need to demonstrate they can teach a diverse student body and that such statements are just one part of a properly structured search process. But they concede that Harvard’s decision to drop mandatory statements will likely lead others to follow suit. 

The row over diversity statements speaks to a wider unease among some faculty members over the application of DEI policies and doubts about their overall efficacy, says Professor Rosenberg. But most have been reluctant to speak publicly and risk being attacked as hostile to diversity and in bed with right-wing activists, he says. “People are always sensitive to the company that they keep and the way that they’re perceived.”  

Why Kenya protests continue after president ditches tax hikes

Youth-led protests against tax hikes in Kenya this week turned violent as police killed 23 people, and demonstrators set fire to Parliament. At the root of the demonstrations is growing discontentment with the country’s leadership. 

Patrick Ngugi/AP
Kenyan President William Ruto announces his intention to drop a controversial finance bill in Nairobi, Kenya, June 26, 2024.
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Protestors clashed with police on the streets of Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, again on Thursday, as demonstrations that began in response to a proposed tax hike morphed into a more general outpouring of anger against the country’s leadership. 

Thursday’s standoff came after a week of violence that has left the country reeling. On Tuesday, demonstrators stormed Parliament, setting part of the building alight and causing lawmakers to flee. Security forces then opened fire, killing 19 people. An additional four deaths have been reported over the past week.

The protests were in response to proposed tax hikes on a range of goods, which President William Ruto said were necessary to help the country pay off its ballooning debts and keep the government running. But citizens balked, arguing that the cost of living in Kenya is already unmanageable and government should instead find the funds it needs by curbing corruption and its own excessive spending. 

In response, Mr. Ruto announced Wednesday evening that he would not sign the controversial finance bill that set off the protests. But some protestors vowed to continue, and on Thursday, the crowds chanted their next demand: “Ruto must go!”  

Why Kenya protests continue after president ditches tax hikes

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Protestors clashed with police on the streets of Kenya’s capital, Nairobi, again on Thursday, as demonstrations that began in response to a proposed tax hike morphed into a more general outpouring of anger against the country’s leadership. 

Thursday’s standoff came after a week of violence that has left the country reeling. On Tuesday, demonstrators stormed Parliament, setting part of the building alight and causing lawmakers to flee. Security forces then opened fire. The death toll over the past week has reached 23 protesters killed by police.

President William Ruto announced Wednesday evening that he would not sign the controversial finance bill that set off the protests. But some protestors vowed to continue, and on Thursday, the crowds chanted their next demand: “Ruto must go!” 

What triggered these protests?

In May, Mr. Ruto introduced a finance bill in Parliament that included tax hikes on essential goods including bread, cooking oil, diapers, and sanitary products. His government argued the increases were necessary to raise $2.7 billion to help pay off Kenya’s debts and keep the government running.

John Muchucha/Reuters
People run after police officers used tear gas to disperse protesters during a demonstration in Nairobi, Kenya, June 27, 2024.

However, the bill immediately provoked an outcry in a country where many are struggling to make ends meet as prices rise faster than incomes. Many Kenyans argued that instead of further taxing citizens, the government should stop corruption and curb its own excessive spending. In May, for instance, President Ruto spent $1.5 million to charter a private jet to the United States for an official visit. 

“This is an issue of extreme poverty and the fact that [many Kenyans feel] there is no future for them,” says John Mukum Mbaku, chair of the program committee at the Nairobi-based African Economic Research Consortium.

In response to the controversy, Mr. Ruto’s government dropped many of the proposed taxes, forging ahead with a modified version of the bill. 

But the damage was done. Anger spread widely on social media – particularly TikTok – and last week, demonstrators, most of them young and working-class, began taking to the streets in Nairobi and other cities to protest the remaining tax hikes.  

“They believe that the government, which came into power with the promise of putting poor people at the center of economic policy, has reneged on those promises and is doing exactly the opposite,” Dr. Mbaku says. 

How did a youth-led antitax movement turn so deadly? 

Protests began early last week and quickly built momentum across the country. There were scattered clashes with police, who used tear gas and water cannons to disperse crowds.

Then on Tuesday, lawmakers passed the revised finance bill. Defiant demonstrators forced their way into Parliament in Nairobi and set parts of the building on fire. Police began to fire live bullets into the crowds, killing 19 people. 

“It was hard to see Kenyans dead on Parliament Road,” says lawyer Ian Mbotela, who has spent the past week representing arrested protestors and advocating for their rights during the demonstrations. “We have had our hearts broken seeing the current government breaching the human rights of our fellow Kenyans.”

Brian Inganga/AP
Kenyan antiriot police patrol outside Parliament in downtown Nairobi, June 26, 2024, the day after violent clashes with protestors left 19 people dead here.

On Wednesday, Mr. Ruto announced that he was withdrawing the finance bill. “Listening keenly to the people of Kenya who have said loudly that they want nothing to do with this finance bill 2024, I concede,” he said in a televised address. 

What happens next? 

Mr. Ruto’s reconsideration of the finance bill has not stopped calls for his resignation, and protests continued Thursday nationwide. In Nairobi, some demonstrators attempted to march on the State House, Mr. Ruto’s official residence.

But compared with earlier in the week, their numbers were smaller. Meanwhile, international observers urged the Kenyan government to open a dialogue with the country’s youth. Volker Türk, the United Nations high commissioner for human rights, wrote on X that he urged “restraint to facilitate the rights to peaceful assembly & expression, and dialogue to listen to the voices of young people. Investigations & accountability essential.” 

In Kenya, Mr. Mbotela and other lawyers said they plan on suing the police for use of excessive force, as well as what they describe as an illegal deployment of Kenya’s military on protesters during the rallies. 

The Kenya National Commission on Human Rights, a state-funded watchdog organization, reported that in addition to the 23 people who died in the protests, 300 had been injured as of Thursday.

“Those who have caused harm to peaceful protesters will be held accountable,” he says. 

Patterns

Tracing global connections

In wake of British and French elections, will aid for Ukraine falter?

Imminent parliamentary elections are expected to radically change the political landscapes in Britain and France. Under new management, will London and Paris maintain their lead roles in backing military aid for Ukraine?

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When they first took office, they wielded tremendous power. In Britain, the Conservatives led the country out of the European Union in 2016. In France, Emmanuel Macron won the presidency in 2017 by shattering the traditional left-right divide.

Now each is facing “comeuppance” time, facing parliamentary elections they look likely to lose by large margins – the Conservatives to the Labour Party, and Mr. Macron to the far-right.

There’s a critical international issue on which the new governments will have to weigh in soon: Russia’s invasion and occupation of Ukraine.

Britain and France are key European members of the transatlantic NATO alliance, and neither is suddenly going to reverse course on Ukraine. They have been among the country’s strongest supporters.

The question facing Britain’s new prime minister and France’s electorally chastened president (who will remain president no matter who wins the parliamentary election) will not be whether to drop their support for Ukraine altogether.

But the nature of that support is at stake: How high a priority will it be? For how long will the two men use their voices in Europe and beyond to take a lead role in drumming up sustained financial and military support for Kyiv?

With Donald Trump in the offing, European mettle may be tested as never before.

In wake of British and French elections, will aid for Ukraine falter?

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Phil Noble/AP
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak (right) and opposition Labour Party leader Keir Starmer (left) debate their policies. Mr. Starmer is expected to win July 4 elections handily.

The political experts call them “change elections,” and they often cite two powerful examples: Britain’s 2016 vote to jettison its decadeslong membership in the European Union, and Emmanuel Macron’s out-of-nowhere triumph in France’s presidential election a year later.

Now, however, we are days away from a different kind of change election in both countries.

Comeuppance election” might be a better term, because voters are poised to deliver a thundering rebuke to Britain’s Conservative Party, the architects of Brexit, and to the centrist party that Mr. Macron created and rode to victory nearly a decade ago.

While the domestic policy implications will become clear only after new British and French governments take shape, there’s a critical international question on which they will have to weigh in sooner: Russia’s invasion and occupation of Ukraine.

Britain and France are key European members of the transatlantic NATO alliance, and neither is suddenly going to reverse course.

The man virtually certain to become Prime Minister in Britain after its July 4 election, Labour Party leader Keir Starmer, has been unequivocal in backing Kyiv.

Under the French system, Mr. Macron will remain president until 2027 – and thus retain some influence over foreign policy – even if his Renaissance party gets thumped, as predicted, in the two-round election on June 30 and July 7.

Mr. Macron and a succession of Conservative leaders in London, notably former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, have taken increasingly front-line roles in opposing Russia’s invasion.

That has proven especially important in light of waning Republican Party enthusiasm for U.S. President Joe Biden’s policy of support for Ukraine.

A sign of whether Britain and France will still feel ready – or, in Mr. Macron’s case, politically able – to continue to play that pivotal role could come as soon as next month.

Olivier Hoslet/Reuters
French President Emmanuel Macron (right) talks to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Polling indicates that Mr. Macron's decision to call a snap election has backfired.

On July 18, Britain will host a meeting of European leaders, with Ukraine topping the agenda.

Yet the conference’s origins lie in the European political landscape before the British and French elections.

It’s a meeting of the European Political Community. The EPC was set up at Mr. Macron’s urging in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion, to bring together leaders from both inside and outside the European Union, crucially including post-Brexit Britain.

The conference was announced by Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak back in March. The venue – Winston Churchill’s ancestral home of Blenheim Palace – was a nod to Boris Johnson’s vision of Britain, unshackled from the EU, playing a Churchillian role in galvanizing Europe’s support for the Ukrainians.

There’s every reason for Mr. Starmer and President Macron to embrace the opportunity for a high-profile reassertion of leadership on support for Ukraine, and they may well do so. But their longer-term calculus will be affected by the results of the British and French snap elections.

In Britain, Brexit is just one reason for the Conservatives’ sorry plight. Polls suggest most voters now believe it was a mistake, but a raft of other concerns – the economy, public services, immigration – and a series of corruption scandals have contributed to a wider sense that, after 14 years of Conservative rule, it’s time for a change.

Mr. Starmer, despite his wide lead in opinion polls, has steered clear of radical promises. He has barely mentioned Brexit, beyond saying that he will try to repair ties with the EU, and has instead prioritized bringing the country together, providing good, honest government, and reviving the economy.

In France, President Macron was hoping that the far-right National Rally (NR) victory in recent EU elections would shock voters back to the center when asked to choose a new parliament. Instead, both the NR, led by Marine Le Pen, and a far-left coalition seem set to make major gains.

Christophe Ena/AP
Far-right National Rally party president Jordan Bardella (right) stands with his colleague Marine Le Pen. Their party is expected to top the polls in Sunday's first round of parliamentary elections.

The two-round system makes the final outcome difficult to predict. But it seems certain that Mr. Macron’s supporters will no longer be the largest parliamentary group.

Mr. Starmer’s political calculus could encourage him to maintain the Conservatives’ emphasis on Ukraine. Pre-election, support for Kyiv was one of several issues on which he’d deliberately steered his Labour Party to the political center, marginalizing its left wing.

Mr. Macron may face a trickier challenge. France’s constitution is ambiguous over the extent of his sway over foreign policy. And he will be governing alongside a changed National Assembly.

Both Ms. Le Pen and the main far-left leaders have condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But they have shown themselves to be decidedly tepid toward NATO, skeptical about risking too deep a French involvement in Ukraine, and drawn to the notion of a negotiated compromise.

The question facing Britain’s new prime minister and France’s electorally chastened president will not be whether to drop their support for Ukraine altogether.

But the nature of that support is at stake: how high a priority will it be? For how long will the two men use their voices in Europe and beyond to take a lead role in drumming up sustained financial and military support for Kyiv?

And those questions may become critically important to Ukraine’s future because of another election.

The vote in the U.S. this November could bring Donald Trump, openly sympathetic to Russia’s claims on Ukraine, back to the White House. That would test European mettle as never before.

A filmmaker searches for humanity in immigration stories

“Green Border” is one filmmaker’s response to the treatment of immigrants in Eastern Europe. It is ultimately about moral choices, says the Monitor’s critic. And the film itself is a moral act.

Agata Kubis
Syrian father Bashir (Jalal Altawil) and his daughter Ghalia (Talia Ajjan) are confronted by border guards in Europe in “Green Border” from director Agnieszka Holland.

A filmmaker searches for humanity in immigration stories

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The border in Agnieszka Holland’s powerful “Green Border” is a swampy, forested exclusion zone between Belarus and Poland.

Beginning in 2021, when the film takes place, refugees from the Middle East and Africa attempting to seek asylum in the European Union were mercilessly used as pawns in a cynical ongoing geopolitical game. Promised safe passage by Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, whose true intention was to fan anti-immigrant ire, they found themselves trapped inside a 2-mile-wide no-man’s-land and brutalized by both sides.

Holland, who co-wrote the film with Maciej Pisuk and Gabriela Łazarkiewicz, divides the narrative into four chapters, whose stories overlap. In the first, “The Family,” we follow a Syrian family – Bashir (Jalal Altawil); his devoutly religious father (Mohamad Al Rashi); his wife, Amina (Dalia Naous); and their young children, including the mischievous, scampering Nur (Taim Ajjan) – as the group flies into Belarus’ Minsk airport from Turkey. They are elated by the hope of the better life they believe will be theirs when they reach their final prearranged destination with a relative in Sweden. Joining them is Leïla (Behi Djanati Atai), an Afghan woman who, alone among them, speaks English and carries cash. She has a special fondness for Nur.

Shot in stark black and white, the film plunges us almost immediately into the harrowing reality of the immigrants’ plight. Wandering to Poland in the dark forest, they are rounded up and literally tossed back and forth between the borders. Desperately trying to sustain their collective humanity, they do what they can to survive, even if it means squeezing damp plants for water.

Subsequent chapters pull us deep inside the workings of both xenophobic Polish border guards and Polish pro-immigrant activists. Singled out particularly are Jan (Tomasz Włosok), a guard who is torn apart by the cruelty he is ordered to perpetrate, and Julia (Maja Ostaszewska), a psychologist who offers up her home and car to the immigration lawyers and rescue workers, and risks her life on missions into the forest.

Agata Kubis
Polish border guards, including Jan (Tomasz Włosok, at right), talk together in “Green Border.”

Although we are watching actors, Holland’s in-your-face documentary-style realism gives the action an immediacy that transcends its scripted origins. Occasionally the film lapses into melodramatic excess. But given its subject, it’s difficult to see how it could have been done otherwise. What grounds the overflow of incident are the many human touches that personalize both the anguish and the stray glimpses of freedom.

In one scene, a Polish doctor administers a portable prenatal scan to a pregnant Somali woman on the forest floor. In another, Julia seeks out Nur, who has wandered away from his family, in an attempt to save him. Suspected of being a refugee herself by the border guards, she proves her nationality by reciting, angrily, in Polish, the Lord’s Prayer.

Near the end, Jan, alone in his truck, cries out in rage at what he has witnessed. In perhaps the film’s most quietly compelling scene, he inspects a van crossing into the border and, opening its back door, sees two eyes peering back at him in the darkness. He pauses for a moment and then steps away and allows the van to pass. In that moment, he has found his humanity.

Upon its release, “Green Border” was castigated in Poland by its then-justice minister, Zbigniew Ziobro, for being “Nazi propaganda.” Holland had family members killed in the Holocaust. A native-born Pole, she currently is residing in France with many celebrated achievements to her credit, ranging from “Europa Europa” to HBO’s “The Wire,” for which she directed several episodes. She has said that she made this immigrant saga because she could “no longer stand the feeling of hopelessness.”

What she offers up, in the face of so much suffering, is a higher aspiration. A brief epilogue depicts Polish guards, including Jan, rescuing Ukrainian immigrants, albeit racial kindred, fleeing the war. Just before this we are shown a group of African boys who have been given shelter in the home of a middle-class Polish family with two teenagers of their own. Up until this point, Holland’s vision has been so unrelenting that, when we watch these teens rapping together, the hard-won moment radiates sheer joy. “Green Border” is ultimately about moral choices. The film itself is a moral act.

Peter Rainer is the Monitor’s film critic. “Green Border” is unrated. It is in Polish, Arabic, English, and French with English subtitles. 

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Ballots for kinder politics

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The presidential debates between Joe Biden and Donald Trump should, in theory, help voters better understand the policy differences between each candidate. Yet just as important is deciding which candidate will better help Americans bridge those differences.

Civility has long been the oil in the mechanics of democracy. It enables people to step out of political bubbles with humility, compassion, and a touch of humor.

American voters are weary of division. Some 80% disapprove of politicians denigrating their opponents. Voters in India had a similar response in recent national elections; they rejected the ruling party’s hateful messages against Muslim minorities and ushered in an era of cooperative governance. They demanded “the return of decency, civility and mutual respect,” observed Apoorvanand Jha, a University of Delhi professor.

“Politics is about honesty, about justice, about mercy, about generosity,” said former Tory member of Parliament Rory Stewart. “Happiness, being well ... involves being able to discuss together our shared values, find through dialogue a common purpose.”

By its ballots, a global community of voters is sending a message to aspiring leaders: True power starts with seeing the good in others, even those with whom they disagree.

Ballots for kinder politics

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U.S. President Joe Biden and Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump.

The presidential debates between Joe Biden and Donald Trump should, in theory, help voters better understand the policy differences between each candidate. Yet just as important is deciding which candidate will better help Americans bridge those differences.

Civility has long been the oil in the mechanics of democracy. It enables people to step out of political bubbles with humility, compassion, and a touch of humor. Take, for example, the lesson a former member of Parliament from Britain’s Conservative Party learned this week.

Back when he was in office, Matthew Parris rarely had a kind word for his political colleagues across the aisle. He spent Monday walking through his old district with the two young candidates who hope to represent it after Britain’s July 4 election. He found them both thoughtful, energetic, and sincere – equally admirable. That startled him.

“A day on the stump, and talking to two decent human beings who aspire to represent us, I see how pinched my us-and-them attitude to politics was,” Mr. Parris wrote in The Times. “Just sometimes, ... a nod towards the humanity of our candidates might be in order.” 

Mr. Parris captured the effect of what Scott Shigeoka, a fellow at the University of California, Berkeley, calls “heart centered curiosity.” His research on healing political and social enmity centers on dissolving fear and hatred through selflessness, generosity, and empathy. Learning to see the good in others, he told the John Templeton Foundation, is about “changing our own mindsets and behaviors and the ways that we interact with each other in the world, rather than trying to change someone else.”

American voters are weary of division. Some 80% disapprove of politicians denigrating their opponents, according to a survey conducted jointly by Florida Atlantic University and Mainstreet Research in February. Some primary results have captured that aversion. In a New York City Democratic primary on Tuesday, for example, one of the most combatively progressive members of Congress lost his bid for reelection. Voters found his centrist challenger more trustworthy.

Voters in India had a similar response. In recent national elections, they rejected the ruling party’s hateful messages against Muslim minorities and ushered in an era of cooperative governance. They demanded “the return of decency, civility and mutual respect,” observed Apoorvanand Jha, a University of Delhi professor, in Al Jazeera.

“Politics is about honesty, about justice, about mercy, about generosity,” said former Tory member of Parliament Rory Stewart in a speech last November. “Happiness, being well ... involves being able to discuss together our shared values, find through dialogue a common purpose. ... It’s not a selfish activity. It’s not an activity primarily about power. It is an activity of community.”

By its ballots, a global community of voters is sending a message to aspiring leaders: True power starts with seeing the good in others, even those with whom they disagree.

A Christian Science Perspective

About this feature

Each weekday, the Monitor includes one clearly labeled religious article offering spiritual insight on contemporary issues, including the news. The publication – in its various forms – is produced for anyone who cares about the progress of the human endeavor around the world and seeks news reported with compassion, intelligence, and an essentially constructive lens. For many, that caring has religious roots. For many, it does not. The Monitor has always embraced both audiences. The Monitor is owned by a church – The First Church of Christ, Scientist, in Boston – whose founder was concerned with both the state of the world and the quality of available news.

Rejoicing – before and beyond elections

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Recognizing God as supremely powerful equips us to approach elections – and their aftermath – with civility, peace of mind, and confidence in the power of good.

Rejoicing – before and beyond elections

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Today's Christian Science Perspective audio edition

A phrase in the Bible’s book of Psalms captures how we often seem to view political opponents today: “The man [or woman] who bringeth wicked devices to pass” (Psalms 37:7). Yikes!

Even if opposing candidates were to pose the existential threat we might think they do, the psalmist’s counsel that leads into the observation above stands: “Rest in the Lord, and wait patiently for him: fret not thyself because of him who prospereth in his way, because of the man who bringeth wicked devices to pass.”

So much seems at stake in elections that dreading what we believe would be the wrong result feels like a rational response. But while fear saps our sense of empowerment, looking beyond the daily political ups and downs, we perceive the one power already and always at work that’s forever established, impartially beneficent, and completely incorruptible.

Above all, it’s a power that neither hurts nor harms but loves and heals: the power of Christ, the true idea of God so evident in Jesus, “who went about doing good, and healing all that were oppressed of the devil; for God was with him” (Acts 10:38).

The oppressive “devil” that Jesus freed people from wasn’t an evil person or group, but the influence of what the Bible calls the carnal mind. This carnal or mortal mind is the misperception that life and power exist independent of the infinite, divine Mind, God – the true source of every individual identity. Mary Baker Eddy, who discovered the divine Science that underlies Jesus’ healings, describes what he proved in this way: “There is no power apart from God. Omnipotence has all-power, and to acknowledge any other power is to dishonor God” (“Science and Health with Key to the Scriptures,” p. 228).

We can honor God by opening our hearts to this timeless Science of God’s all-power, every glimpse of which challenges mortal mind’s narrative that oppression is inevitable. And every individual healing is evidence of mortal mind’s powerlessness in light of God’s all-power, showing that there is no divine support for the broader claims that the carnal mind can be in the driving seat of a community or nation.

When experiencing such proof, we naturally exude a joy described in Science and Health: “Let us rejoice that we are subject to the divine ‘powers that be.’ Such is the true Science of being” (p. 249). This spiritual cause for rejoicing will be just as valid in the future, whatever the future holds.

Rejoicing in God’s all-governing power isn’t a neutral stance in the cauldron of an election season. It uplifts us and reaches out to touch the lives of others. When we rejoice that God, good, has all power, we become clearer transparencies for Spirit, Life, Truth, and Love, which are biblical synonyms for God. We express Spirit-power in tirelessly doing good and accepting that others are spiritual, so also inherently motivated to do good; Soul-power by modeling constructive qualities such as civility and compassion; Truth-power in refusing to believe or circulate lies, or give credence to the notion that they have valid power; and Love-power in realizing the spiritual fact that there’s no such thing as an enemy, which brings transformation of oneself and others.

Rejoicing in God’s power also helps us discern when we’re getting pulled into making a god of human power by seeing someone as either a personal savior to adulate or a personal devil to fear and loathe. Before, during, and after an election, whichever candidate or party prevails, our need is always to turn to Truth – to yield to the influence of Christ, bringing to light the authority of God, which Jesus demonstrated has the most profound and far-reaching impact.

Doing so also frees us from being overly fascinated with or anxious about elections. This isn’t a freedom to ignore the issues at stake, or to opt out of participating in the privilege and right to vote where one is entitled to. Rather, it uplifts us to feel the influence of Mind at work.

We can steadfastly sustain this higher, healing view all the way through election season, including on election night. Instead of being excitedly or nervously glued to results rolling in, we can affirm the continuity of God’s control in prayer that reaches for, recognizes, and yes, rejoices in the all-blessing reality of the permanent and perpetual “divine ‘powers that be.’”

Clearly, election results are critical. But on the day after the election, the psalmist’s counsel still applies, regardless of who holds the reins of elective, human government: We can “rest in the Lord, and wait patiently for him.” We can rest in the recognition that divine Love, God, truly reigns over all, and that this power of Love is ever present to be demonstrated in the healing of our communities and nations.

Pour lire cet article en français, cliquez ici.

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Powering through study hall

Mohamed Abd El Ghany/Reuters
Students study for their high school certificate exams at the Library of Alexandria in Egypt June 26, 2024, during the power-off time that the government has instituted to overcome the overload amid a heat wave. Egyptians have been experiencing frequent power cuts, with a lack of natural gas supplies for the electricity grid fueling the crisis.
( The illustrations in today’s Monitor Daily are by Karen Norris and Jacob Turcotte. )

A look ahead

Thanks for reading today’s Daily. Come back tomorrow. Besides more debate and Supreme Court coverage, we’ll take you to Tunisia to meet a contractor who’s building vital rural bridges from found or donated materials. 

Finally, we offer one more story for you today: Fahad Shah looks at Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first visit to the Jammu and Kashmir region since his reelection, and at what that might mean for the restoration of a degree of local autonomy.

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2024
June
27
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