2024
October
10
Thursday

Monitor Daily Podcast

October 10, 2024
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TODAY’S INTRO

Keeping the world in view

Clayton Collins
Director of Editorial Innovation

There are times when the news cycle delivers more than most readers can mentally accommodate. We’re in one of those now. 

A pair of preelection hurricanes has many Americans focused on loss of life, property, and perhaps easy access to voting. A widening war in the Middle East has caring people everywhere concerned about those in its crossfire. 

In his Patterns column today, Ned Temko performs his usual role as master of the step-back. (He joined our podcast in 2022 to talk about making sense of the world.) Today, Ned explains why an almost “forgotten war” in Ukraine merits a slice of the world’s attention again now. He’s worth making room for.

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After hurricanes, FEMA confronts a different kind of flood: Misinformation

Natural disasters have always created an opening for rumors and lies. But federal officials have been stunned by the volume of online misinformation around Hurricanes Helene and Milton. And they say the effort to combat it comes at a price.

Robert Willett/The News & Observer/AP
FEMA employee Jirau Alvaro (right) works with Daniel Mancini to complete a report on the damage to his property, Oct. 6, 2024, in rural Buncombe County near Black Mountain, North Carolina.
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A flood of online misinformation, conspiracies, and falsehoods has been undermining the efforts to assist victims of Hurricane Helene and now Hurricane Milton, which made landfall Wednesday night in Florida.

Much of it is directed at the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which coordinates disaster relief with local and state agencies. FEMA has had to rebut falsehoods in a dedicated page on its website, and government officials have scrambled to get messages out to concerned residents. Among the baseless claims: allegations that FEMA is prioritizing nonwhite citizens in providing assistance, that the federal government is seizing storm-hit properties, even that the government deliberately caused the storm.

It isn’t unusual for false information to circulate after a natural disaster. And partisan bickering about federal responses to storms is a standard part of the political playbook. But the power and reach of the rumors appears to have grown, with some being amplified by former President Donald Trump and his allies in the final stretch of a drum-tight presidential race.

In storm-affected Florida and North Carolina, some Republican officials are publicly pushing back on falsehoods, pointing to their adverse real-world consequences.

After hurricanes, FEMA confronts a different kind of flood: Misinformation

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Federal agencies responding to natural disasters are used to being called incompetent when help arrives too slowly for frustrated communities. But the deadly hurricanes that have pummeled Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia over the past two weeks are stirring accusations not just of tardiness but also of outright treason.

A flood of online misinformation, conspiracies, and falsehoods – worse than any they’ve seen before, officials say – has been undermining efforts to assist victims of Hurricane Helene and now Hurricane Milton, which made landfall Wednesday night in Florida. Much of it is directed at the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which coordinates disaster relief with local and state agencies. FEMA has had to rebut falsehoods in a dedicated page on its website, and government officials have scrambled to get messages out to concerned residents.

Among the baseless claims circulating online: allegations that FEMA is prioritizing nonwhite citizens in providing assistance, that the federal government is seizing storm-hit properties, even that the government deliberately caused the storm.

“There’s been reckless and irresponsible and relentless promotion of disinformation and outright lies about what’s going on,” President Joe Biden said on Wednesday. “It’s harmful to those who most need the help.”

Mr. Biden blamed former President Donald Trump directly for amplifying some of the lies.

Mr. Trump has repeatedly accused the Biden-Harris administration of diverting FEMA disaster relief funds into housing for migrants. “They stole the FEMA money just like they stole it from a bank, so they could give it to their illegal immigrants that they want to have vote for them,” he said at a rally last week in Michigan.

There is no evidence for this claim. A GOP-run House committee released a statement saying funding for migrant shelters is entirely separate from disaster funds. And noncitizens are not eligible to vote in federal elections.

Nathan Howard/Reuters
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell (attending virtually) speak during a press briefing at the White House in Washington, Oct. 9, 2024.

Mr. Trump has also leaned into an unfounded rumor that the $750 cash handout FEMA provides to storm-affected individuals for immediate, basic needs is the only government money survivors will receive. “They’re offering them $750, to people whose homes have been washed away,” he said at a rally in Pennsylvania. “Think of it: We give foreign countries hundreds of billions of dollars and we’re handing North Carolina $750.”

As FEMA has explained, the $750 is just an initial payment; affected individuals can apply for much more assistance, to help cover everything from temporary housing to home repairs.

A related claim that FEMA is running out of money, on the other hand, may prove to be accurate. Congress authorized $20 billion in disaster funds last month, but FEMA chief Deanne Criswell said on Wednesday that the agency has already spent nearly half the money allocated for this fiscal year.

On Wednesday, Mr. Trump posted on his Truth Social site that “western North Carolina, and the whole state, for that matter, has been totally and incompetently mismanaged by Harris/Biden. They can’t get anything done properly, but I will make up for lost time, and do it right, when I get there.”

Some Republicans pushing back

It isn’t unusual for false information to circulate after a natural disaster. Rumors about a government land grab also spread in Hawaii last year after the wildfires on Maui. Partisan bickering about federal responses to storms is also part of the political playbook. But the power and reach of the rumors appears to have grown.

Notably, some Republican officials have publicly pushed back on the conspiracy theories, urging residents not to believe them and lamenting the real-world consequences of social media falsehoods. Rep. Chuck Edwards, a Republican who represents a district in western North Carolina that endured the deadliest hit from Hurricane Helene, published a remarkable letter to constituents Tuesday rebutting an extensive list of rumors while defending FEMA’s response and detailing how its programs work.

Mr. Edwards is no fan of federal agencies; his website shows him holding a wrench with a slogan, “Fixing How Washington Works.” He wrote in his letter that FEMA’s response has had “shortfalls” but said that “hoaxes, conspiracy theories, and hearsay about hurricane response efforts” were sparking chaos in communities.

Eduardo Munoz/Reuters
FEMA workers review claims by local residents affected by floods following Hurricane Helene, in Marion, North Carolina, Oct. 5, 2024.

In Florida, where FEMA was helping prepare for Hurricane Milton on Wednesday, Republican officials tried to combat online rumors about evacuation orders and property seizures. Gov. Ron DeSantis urged residents to “be careful about the nonsense that just gets circulated.”

Christina Pushaw, the governor’s spokesperson, warned that such claims posed a real danger on the eve of a catastrophic storm. In a post on X, the Elon Musk-owned platform that has been a major amplifier of hurricane-related misinformation, she wrote, “Spreading LIES like this could have serious consequences” if residents in evacuation zones refuse to leave, putting “their own lives (& lives of first responders) at grave risk.”

On Thursday, Ms. Criswell, the FEMA head, credited government officials with helping to tamp down some of the misinformation around Hurricane Milton, after seeing the alarming impact of online rumors in the wake of Hurricane Helene. “We’ve had such great support from governors and congressional members, local leaders really helping to push back on that misinformation,” Ms. Criswell said. “We did see a decrease, even though there were still some voices out there trying to spread these lies, which is really unfortunate.”

Distrust in mainstream media

Declining trust in mainstream media, mostly on the political right, and the rise of online influencers trying to go viral in a frenetic news cycle have made it harder for agencies like FEMA to communicate with the public during disasters. Intelligence agencies have warned that hostile foreign powers are pushing divisive content online during the U.S. election campaign, though experts say it’s too soon to know the origins of the hurricane-related rumors.

What is clear, however, is that FEMA has to invest resources in rebutting rumors, potentially at the expense of other urgent tasks in responding to disasters, says Joseph Blevins, a professor of communications at the University of Cincinnati who studies social media.

“FEMA has to be prepared now. They need a web team to get this information out there. But the truth is always at a disadvantage when it’s chasing a falsehood,” he says.

FEMA isn’t the only federal agency battling online rumors. Last weekend, Mr. Musk, a Trump backer who frequently posts false and misleading content on X, reposted claims that the Federal Aviation Administration was blocking flights into Helene-affected regions, including some carrying satellite equipment provided by Mr. Musk’s company, Starlink. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg responded to Mr. Musk’s posts by calling him to explain that the airspace was open but being managed by air traffic control to avoid collisions and speed up deliveries.

“Thanks for the call. Hopefully, we can resolve this soon,” Mr. Musk wrote. But course corrections by online influencers – Mr. Musk has tens of millions of followers – are rare.

Researchers say the slew of online invective surrounding hurricane response has included credible threats against federal officials and calls for militias to confront FEMA and its responders. The rumors have also been laced with antisemitic hate speech directed at Jewish officials, such as the mayor of Asheville, North Carolina. For far-right influencers, disasters are “moments of crisis” that allow them to “co-opt the news cycle” and reach wider audiences with disinformation and hate, according to the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, a London-based think tank.

Partisan shots at federal agencies are par for the course, says Professor Blevins, co-author of “Social Media, Social Justice, and the Political Economy of Online Networks.” But the impact on FEMA from misinformation now goes beyond the partisan blame game in Washington.

“You’re hurting people who’ve had their homes destroyed,” he says. “There’s real harm that’s being done to people, and that’s the tragedy.”

Today’s news briefs

• Social Security boost: Millions of U.S. retirees who receive the benefits will see a 2.5% cost-of-living increase to their monthly checks beginning in January. 
• Poststorm voting: North Carolina lawmakers pass legislation making it easier for residents affected by Hurricane Helene to vote. 
• Inflation in U.S. drops: Inflation rate falls to its lowest point since it first began surging more than three years ago, adding to a spate of encouraging economic news. 
• Money laundering case: Canada-based TD Bank will pay approximately $3 billion in a historic settlement with U.S. authorities who say its lax practices allowed significant money laundering over multiple years. 
• Biden, Netanyahu connect: Call between the U.S. and Israeli leaders, the first in months, comes as Israel expands its incursion into Lebanon and considers how to respond to Iran’s missile attack. 

Read these news briefs. 

Relief after Hurricane Milton, but also a shaken Florida

While less devastating than many had feared, Hurricane Milton reflected what many see as growing climate disruption – and the perseverance it will require.

Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters
An American flag waves as Hurricane Milton approached in Orlando, Florida, Oct. 9, 2024.
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Hundreds of thousands of Floridians began returning home Thursday after the second major hurricane within two weeks crashed into the western coast of their state, bringing winds topping 100 mph, multiple feet of storm surge, and the fear of a new era of supercharged extreme weather.

Milton was likely fueled by global warming and hotter than normal ocean water. Flash flood warnings remained in effect across the state, more than 3 million residents lost power, and officials warned that the real toll of the storm was yet to be calculated.

In many ways, the morning also brought a collective sigh of relief. Despite predictions, Hurricane Milton did not flatten either Tampa or St. Petersburg, where it had seemed to be heading directly as of a day ago. And despite human tragedies, including five reported deaths when a tornado hit a retirement community in St. Lucie County, early reports suggested that emergency preparations and evacuations saved lives as the storm crossed the densely populated center of the Florida Peninsula.

“The storm was significant, but thankfully this was not the worst-case scenario,” said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at a briefing Thursday morning.

Relief after Hurricane Milton, but also a shaken Florida

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Hundreds of thousands of Floridians began returning home Thursday after the second major hurricane within two weeks crashed into the western coast of their state, bringing winds topping 100 mph, multiple feet of storm surge, and the fear of a new era of supercharged extreme weather.

In many ways, the morning also brought a collective sigh of relief. Despite predictions, Hurricane Milton did not flatten either Tampa or St. Petersburg, where it had seemed to be heading directly as of a day ago. And despite human tragedies, including five reported deaths when a tornado hit a retirement community in St. Lucie County, early reports suggested that emergency preparations and evacuations saved lives as the storm crossed the densely populated center of the Florida Peninsula.

“The storm was significant, but thankfully this was not the worst-case scenario,” said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at a briefing Thursday morning.

Still, Milton’s strength, the unprecedented number of tornadoes that accompanied it, and its appearance so soon after Hurricane Helene reflect what many see as a new era of climate disruption, fueled by global warming and hotter than normal ocean water. Flash flood warnings remained in effect across the state, more than 3 million residents lost power, and officials warned that the real toll of the storm was yet to be calculated.

On social media and elsewhere, many Floridians registered their fear and exhaustion from back-to-back disasters. But many also doubled down on their dedication to the Sunshine State.

Bill Ingram/Palm Beach Post/USA Today Network/Reuters
Marie Cook reacts to the damage to her home in the Binks Estates community after a tornado formed by Hurricane Milton touched down striking homes in The Preserve and Binks Estates among others in Wellington, Florida, Oct. 9.

“I would much rather stay here and see my Gulf of Mexico and my marine life and palm trees than anything else in the world,” says Beth Reynolds, a born-and-raised Floridian who stayed in her St. Petersburg home throughout the storm.

Her house was in a mandatory evacuation zone, she explains, but she had recently invested in hurricane-proofing it, installing high-impact windows, hurricane straps, and a new roof. She had filled both her freezer and refrigerator with water bottles, stocked up on snacks, and filled her solar-powered battery chargers.

“I have three dogs and a giant tortoise,” she explains, “which makes it difficult to evacuate.”

Ms. Reynolds has lived up and down the East Coast of the United States, but she keeps returning here, where she is a nature photographer and an active volunteer with local environmental organizations.

“I am just a real salty beach person and I love this area,” she says. “I can’t think of any other place I would want to live.”

On Thursday morning, Ms. Reynolds said she had power and was turning her attention to cleaning up from the storm.

“I have a lot of debris to clean up, but my neighborhood is looking pretty good,” she wrote by text.

Many of her neighbors had evacuated.

Nadia Zomorodian/Daytona Beach News-Journal/USA Today Netword/Reuters
Residents and their pets evacuate after Hurricane Milton flooded their neighborhood in South Daytona, Florida, Oct. 10.

For days, as Hurricane Milton moved across the Gulf of Mexico, it seemed to be aiming straight for the densely populated Tampa Bay area, where residents still hadn’t finished cleaning up the wreckage from Hurricane Helene.

Helene was the worst storm Tampa had seen in a century, unleashing up to 7 feet of unexpected storm surge in some waterfront neighborhoods. Less than two weeks later, Milton looked like it could be even more devastating. As the storm approached the Gulf Coast, mandatory evacuation notices spurred many Floridians out of their homes. Bridges across Tampa Bay were thick with traffic. Families in cars packed to the gills shared the roads with trucks bearing loads of debris from Helene.

Meanwhile, federal officials relocated search-and-rescue workers to the region, while the state activated the Florida National Guard.

The storm barreled ashore Wednesday around 8:30 p.m. in Siesta Key, near Sarasota, about 60 miles south of Tampa. That landing point, officials said, resulted in a “reverse surge” in Tampa Bay, in which water levels temporarily dropped, contrary to the predictions of a multifoot increase.

Milton remained at hurricane strength as it rammed through central Florida, dumping heavy rain and causing dangerous inland flooding until it exited the state midmorning at Cape Canaveral. Still, residents along Florida’s east coast and into Georgia remained braced for dangerous storm surges.

The 100 mph winds at Milton’s landfall shredded the roof of Tropicana Field, the iconic ballpark that houses Major League Baseball’s Tampa Bay Rays. Roof panels hung like streamers over the field, which was lined with cots accommodating hundreds of first responders. Downtown, a crane collapsed onto the offices of the Tampa Bay Times and a high-rise condominium, although officials said nobody was harmed in either incident.

Max Chesnes/Tampa Bay Times/AP
An aerial view shows Tropicana Field's shredded roof in downtown St. Petersburg, Florida, in the wake of Hurricane Milton, early Oct. 10, 2024.

Tampa Bay – and central Florida at large – is home to scores of freshly arrived residents. The region’s population surged following the coronavirus pandemic; many of these newcomers had never experienced a hurricane before.

Brit Blackford moved to St. Petersburg a month ago for a new job from Asheville, North Carolina, which was devastated by flooding connected to Hurricane Helene. She lives outside the mandatory evacuation zones, but says she was unsure what to expect from this next, huge storm. Erring on the side of caution, she packed her car and left for a friend’s house in the landlocked city of Lakeland, with her two beagles, pet snake, and parrot in tow.

Originally from Indiana, Ms. Blackford was excited to move to the Tampa Bay area, where her family had vacationed during her childhood. She doesn’t anticipate that these back-to-back storms will change her plans to stay in Florida for the long term. Instead, she says this experience will leave her better prepared for the next time.

“It’s all a learning curve,” she says. “What will the consequence be [from] this learning curve? I’m not sure yet. I’ll find that out as soon as I go home.”

‘Enough is enough’: In Israel, rationale for war trumps distrust of leaders

To endure war, a society usually needs both unity and trusted leadership. Yet as Israel takes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, the public consensus seems to be based mostly on a blend of confidence and caution – without faith in a government plan.

Rami Shlush/Reuters
An Israeli police officer inspects the damage to a residential building caused by a rocket fired towards Israel from Lebanon, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, in Haifa, Israel, Oct. 7, 2024.
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As Israel batters Hezbollah in Lebanon, and as the world awaits Israel’s promised retaliation against Iran, Hezbollah’s sometimes deadly missile salvos are a reminder of the price Israelis are paying for the war on their northern border.

Still, while they are distrustful of their government, Israelis appear largely united around the war. The reason: a year of Hezbollah rocket fire that drove 65,000 residents of northern border communities from their homes.

That unity mostly holds regarding Israel’s broader conflict with Iran, too. Most view the threats from Hezbollah and Iran as dangers that need to be confronted, and are increasingly confident Israel can do so.

“Of course everyone wants to destroy Hezbollah infrastructure – but the majority of Israelis don’t think the government has a clear policy,” cautions Dahlia Scheindlin, an expert on Israeli public opinion.

While the government said its objectives in Lebanon were to uproot Hezbollah infrastructure, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday suggested in an address directed at the Lebanese people that they should “free themselves from Hezbollah” or face a long war.

Israeli society is “starting from consensus” regarding the need to return northern residents home, says analyst Nimrod Goren, “but then you bring in the right-wing reality of this government, which has different goals.”

‘Enough is enough’: In Israel, rationale for war trumps distrust of leaders

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The blue skies above the northern port city of Haifa these days are a story told in the white contrails of Hezbollah missiles and the Israeli air defense systems knocking them down. From the ground are heard the attendant booms, the wail of air raid sirens, and the beating of footsteps running to shelter.

Early evening Wednesday, the army said a salvo of about 90 rockets had been fired from Lebanon toward northern Israel that day in a span of eight minutes.

In one town, a couple walking their dogs were killed. Television reports showed a burned-out home struck by a rocket and the funerals of young soldiers killed since Israeli forces entered southern Lebanon last week.

Hezbollah’s ongoing attacks – as the Iran-backed militia is battered by Israel’s crushing offensive – are a reminder of the price being paid by Israelis, too, even if it is not the all-out, punishing barrage Israelis feared before their own offensive was launched.

Still, deeply divided politically, and angry at and distrustful of their government, Israelis appear largely united around the idea of fighting a war against Hezbollah.

The main reason: A year of sustained rocket fire by the Shiite militia, in support of its Iran-backed ally Hamas, has made it impossible for some 65,000 residents of northern border communities to live there.

That unity mostly holds regarding Israel’s broader conflict with Iran, too, even if the government has yet to articulate a clear, coherent policy, and as Israelis and the world await the promised retaliation for the second barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles.

While there is a division of opinion on how precisely to address the threats of Hezbollah and Iran, most view both as dangers that need to be confronted. And a growing confidence in Israel’s military position is fueling the perception they can be.

“Israelis are saying they cannot go on like this, enough is enough,” Uzi Rabi, director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, says of the war of attrition with Hezbollah.

Ammar Awad/Reuters
Birds fly as Israel's Iron Dome antimissile system intercepts rockets launched from Lebanon toward Israel, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, as seen from northern Israel, Oct. 9, 2024.

“Window of opportunity”

In recent weeks, Israel turned the tables on Hezbollah, the crown jewel of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” with an offensive that began with exploding beepers and continued with the killing of the majority of the organization’s senior command, including its leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

“The phenomenal success of Israel in Lebanon in recent weeks opened a window of opportunity to once and for all change the power equation in Lebanon: downgrading Hezbollah, creating a chance for a different future for Lebanon, and cutting off one of the most prominent arms of the Iranian octopus,” says Professor Rabi.

The Israeli army says it is making headway dismantling Hezbollah’s border installations, including underground tunnels from which the militants can operate from and even potentially enter Israel.

One such tunnel was found this week that crossed into Israeli territory, an army spokesperson said, an apparent corroboration of fears that Hezbollah could carry out its own version of the devastating Oct. 7 attack Hamas launched a year ago.

“We fear something like that could happen and that we need to dismantle such a threat. Any state would try to do the same. I don’t see it as a political issue,” says Dan Prath, a Haifa resident who is not a supporter of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.

“Of course everyone wants to destroy Hezbollah infrastructure – but the majority of Israelis don’t think the government has a clear policy,” cautions Dahlia Scheindlin, a pollster and expert on Israeli public opinion.

Israel Defense Forces/Reuters
In this handout image released on Oct. 3 by the Israeli army, members of the Israeli army take part in an operation in southern Lebanon.

A case in point: While his government had announced its objectives in southern Lebanon were to uproot Hezbollah infrastructure there, Mr. Netanyahu on Tuesday suggested in a video address directed at the Lebanese people that his aims were more far-reaching. He urged the Lebanese to “free themselves from Hezbollah” or face the prospect of an “abyss of a long war that will lead to destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza.”

In a poll by the Israel Democracy Institute, 47% of Jewish Israelis said they supported a ground invasion of southern Lebanon while 41% opposed it – reflecting a division between those on the center and left, and those on the right politically – and almost 60% of Arab Israeli citizens were opposed to it.

Israeli society is “starting from consensus” regarding the need to return the northern residents to their homes, says Nimrod Goren, president of the think tank Mitvim – The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, “but then you bring in the right-wing reality of this government, which has different goals.”

Confronting Iran

Last week Israeli cellphones blared alarms warning people to seek shelter immediately. Within minutes the entire country was under a barrage of almost 200 Iranian ballistic missiles. It was payback, Tehran said, for the assassinations of Mr. Nasrallah, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, and others.

While most missiles were intercepted, damage was limited, and no Israelis were killed, Mr. Netanyahu vowed Israel would strike back.

On Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned that the counterattack “will be lethal, precise, and especially surprising.”

Israeli TV commentators and politicians across the political spectrum have been urging the government to seize the momentum and strike the most potent of targets – Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran is estimated to be close to having a nuclear military capability.

Mr. Netanyahu himself has hinted to Iranians that whatever action comes next it could be bold, saying in a video addressed to them, “When Iran is finally free, and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think – everything will be different.”

Celine Touboul, co-executive director of the Economic Cooperation Foundation, a Tel Aviv think tank, says the long-serving Israeli leader “seems to now believe that via military means he could reshape the entire Middle East.”

Speaking of the calls to hit Iran hard by going after nuclear installations, even without crucial U.S. support, she says, “The impressive impact of the beeper attacks and targeted killing of Nasrallah has created a sense of invincibility.”

Echoing that “now or never” argument, the Dayan Center’s Professor Rabi allows that Israel has to be “very respectful of the United States.” But “If you are leader of the free world, this kind of opportunity might not be ever seen again – so if we skip it we will pay a heavy price in the years to come.”

Vahid Salemi/AP
Demonstrators celebrate Iran's missile strike against Israel during a gathering in front of the British Embassy in Tehran, Iran, Oct. 1, 2024.

The case for caution

Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat, urged caution, writing in the Haaretz newspaper: “If the objective is to inflict a resounding and debilitating blow to Iran’s nuclear program, Israel cannot do it without the United States.

“There’s no question that an Israeli air attack could do damage – possibly a lot of damage. But it would fall short of decisively destroying Iran’s nuclear infrastructure while risking a full-blown war for decades.”

A poll by the Jerusalem Center for Foreign and Security Affairs suggested many Israelis understand the need for caution. A majority, 68%, supported a direct attack on Iran of some kind if Hezbollah’s missile attacks were ongoing. But within that number, 37% said they would only support that if it were in cooperation with the U.S.; only 31% said they would support an attack without it.

“This is very rational, showing Israelis are weighing the circumstances, the cost, consequences, and necessary conditions,” says Dr. Scheindlin.

Grand plans for a remapped Middle East aside, analysts say if Israel wants to maintain strategic bonds with the U.S. and stabilize its own situation, including finally winning the release of the 101 hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, it ultimately has to move toward diplomatic solutions in a war that has put Israel in the line of fire from all directions.

“I don’t think arrangements in Gaza or in Lebanon will be built on trust, but will have to be built on mechanisms that will guarantee that security interests are met with the support of a strong coalition who will guarantee their implementation,” says Ms. Touboul. “In any case, Israel will maintain its right of self-defense.”

Patterns

Tracing global connections

Will the West really back Ukraine ‘for as long as it takes’?

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy fears his allies’ commitment may be flagging. He lost an opportunity to rally them this weekend when an aid donors’ meeting was called off because Hurricane Milton is keeping U.S. President Joe Biden at home.

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Hurricane Milton upended many lives this week – including, unexpectedly, that of Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy.

He had been looking forward to a meeting in Germany this weekend of Ukraine’s allies, where he was hoping to shore up what he fears is faltering international commitment to his cause. But the gathering was postponed when Joe Biden said he needed to be in Washington because of the storm.

Part of the challenge Mr. Zelenskyy will face, when the leaders do eventually convene, is to convince them that he can meaningfully shift the course of a war in which both sides have taken enormous casualties and in which neither seems able to deliver a knockout blow.

It’s not just a question of more weapons. What Mr. Zelenskyy really wants is to reinforce the political message that resonated so powerfully in allied capitals in the early months of the invasion.

That message is stark: that the security of Europe and America itself would suffer if Russia succeeds in subjugating a neighboring country for having chosen to align itself with the democratic West.

And after the United States pledged to back Ukraine “for as long as it takes,” permitting Moscow to prevail would weaken trust in Washington’s word around the world.

Will the West really back Ukraine ‘for as long as it takes’?

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Reuters
A woman stands in the backyard of her house destroyed by a Russian airstrike, in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, Oct. 10.

It has become the forgotten war, overshadowed by the conflagration in the Middle East.

Yet Ukraine’s increasingly difficult battle against Russia’s invasion force – far from having gone away – is entering a crucial stage.

The next few weeks could go a long way to deciding how and when it ends.

That’s because Russia’s troops have been pushing inexorably forward in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine, while its missiles and drones have pounded towns, cities, and critical infrastructure across the country.

And Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is urgently trying to shore up what he fears is flagging commitment from the United States and his other key Western allies.

He was dealt a fresh setback in that effort this week from an unexpected source: Mother Nature.

With Hurricane Milton bearing down on Florida, U.S. President Joe Biden postponed a meeting this weekend in Germany of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group – the coalition of nearly 50 countries that Washington assembled to help arm Ukraine after Russia’s invasion.

Leaders from key NATO allies, including Mr. Biden himself, were due to attend, and Mr. Zelenskyy was hoping to persuade them to provide the support he’s convinced is needed to turn the battlefield tide in Ukraine’s favor.

Susan Walsh/AP
At their meeting last month, President Joe Biden turned down Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy's request for looser restrictions on the use of US long range missiles.

The meeting had taken on even greater importance after he failed to win a firm commitment from Mr. Biden to support his “victory plan” during White House talks at the end of last month.

Part of the challenge Mr. Zelenskyy will face, when the leaders do eventually convene, is to convince them that he can meaningfully shift the course of a war in which both sides have taken enormous casualties and in which neither seems able to deliver a knockout blow.

His plan reportedly involves persuading Washington to loosen its restrictions on Ukraine’s use of the long-range missiles it’s been given by the U.S. and Britain. Washington has long resisted taking that step out of concern that Russia might attack NATO’s European flank in response.

Being able to use the missiles’ full range could allow Ukraine to strike at drone and missile bases inside Russia, as well as disrupt supply lines to its invading troops.

The Ukrainians are also seeking weapons to outfit 14 new brigades that have been trained by NATO over the past two years.

They believe all that would allow them to build on their surprise August incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, where they still hold hundreds of square miles of territory.

It would also balance Russia’s widening coalition of military supporters. This week, there was a report that North Korea might send troops to fight in Ukraine. And Iran, a key supplier of drones for the Russian invasion force, is now also delivering ballistic missiles.

Yet what Mr. Zelenskyy really hopes to accomplish is to reinforce the underlying political message that resonated so powerfully in allied capitals in the early months of the invasion.

That message is stark: that the security of Europe and America itself would suffer if Russia succeeds in subjugating a neighboring country for having chosen to align itself with the democratic West.

Mr. Zelenskyy will argue that there is now a growing risk the conflict will end in just such a victory for the Russian president. That could happen with either with a negotiated settlement on Mr. Putin’s terms, or with open-ended warfare that will eventually devastate Ukraine without exhausting the capacity of a far larger, more populous, and rearmed Russia.

His immediate concern is that the world has shifted its eyes to the conflict in the Mideast.

That has pushed Ukraine down Washington’s list of policy imperatives, even as U.S. election politics have been making it harder for Ukraine’s message to break through.

AP
Residents of an apartment building damaged after shelling by Ukrainian forces stand near the building in Kursk, Russia, Aug. 11.

The Republican candidate in next month’s presidential election, Donald Trump, has criticized the scale of U.S. support for Ukraine. He has voiced sympathy for Russia’s contention that it has a legitimate claim to Ukraine. And he says he’ll end the war within days of the election if he wins.

That helps explain the urgency of Mr. Zelenskyy’s efforts.

It may also explain why he’s been pinning his hopes on the broader allied meeting in Germany. For his message does resonate with European NATO members.

Britain, France, and those countries lying nearest Russia – Poland and the Baltic states – share Mr. Zelenskyy’s view of the peril in allowing Mr. Putin to win. They agree that Moscow might well then threaten other neighbors.

Their chances of persuading Washington to join a concerted new show of support for Ukraine may depend on an even broader international argument.

It is that after the U.S. made repeated pledges to back Ukraine “for as long as it takes,” permitting Russia to prevail would weaken trust in Washington among allies far beyond Europe.

In Asia, for instance, where China has vowed to “reunite” the island democracy of Taiwan with the mainland.

Elsewhere, too. Mr. Putin is due to meet Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, at the end of this week. And that may signal repercussions in the very part of the world that has been crowding Ukraine off America’s top-priority policy agenda:

The Middle East.

With heirloom seed swaps, gardeners grow community – and biodiversity

Heirloom seed saving, swapping, and celebrating are booming among gardeners, farmers, and everyday people – something experts see as important for biodiversity and food security. 

Ali Martin/The Christian Science Monitor
Visitors to the National Heirloom Exposition discover unique fruits and vegetables at the Ventura Fairgrounds in Ventura, California, Sept. 10, 2024.
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Public seed gatherings – whether in big exhibit halls or small town libraries – are increasingly popular celebrations of plant biodiversity at a time when many experts worry about a dramatic reduction in the variety of plants the world grows and eats.

At the National Heirloom Exposition in Ventura, California, one of the largest gatherings of seed enthusiasts in the United States, visitors are greeted by an enormous pile of twisted squash. Heirloom seeds are available to buy or swap. 

For decades, policymakers, academics, and agriculturalists have recognized the importance of preserving a wide variety of seeds. At the height of the Cold War, the U.S. government decided to start banking seeds for staples such as corn and soybeans.

But in recent years – especially since the COVID-19 pandemic – there’s been a growing movement of everyday individuals to get in on the seed-saving action as well.  

“There is a real urgency around how we think about food and how we access it,” says Mike Bollinger, executive director at Seed Savers Exchange, an Iowa-based nonprofit focused on saving and sharing seeds.  

With heirloom seed swaps, gardeners grow community – and biodiversity

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At the National Heirloom Exposition in Ventura, California, one of the largest gatherings of seed enthusiasts in the United States, visitors are greeted by an enormous pile of twisted and gnarled squash.

There’s nothing uniform about these pumpkins and gourds, in their shades of yellows and grays and oranges. And that’s the point. Public seed gatherings like this, whether in big exhibit halls or small town libraries or at local farms, are increasingly popular celebrations of plant biodiversity at a time when many experts worry about a dramatic reduction in the variety of plants the world grows and eats. Here, standardization is out. Uniqueness, and the related stories of seed and place, is in.

Seed enthusiasts can be motivated by food independence or climate change resilience or just the desire to grow – and taste – a really great watermelon. But what ties them together, says Bevin Cohen, a leader in the heirloom seed movement who organized the expo’s seed swap, is the joy of joining with others to grow a better future.

“In any other situation, these types of people, we might not be sitting next to each other and sharing a meal because of the differences we might focus on. But here, that all just washes away,” Mr. Cohen says.

Ali Martin/The Christian Science Monitor
Bevin Cohen, who runs a farm and seed company in Michigan, organized the daily seed swap at the Heirloom Expo in Ventura, California. Mr. Cohen has written five books, including "Saving Our Seeds," and he travels the U.S. educating communities about heirloom seed preservation.

The reasons for the growing popularity of these seed swaps – and of heirloom or heritage seeds in general – are myriad.

For decades now, policymakers, academics, and agriculturalists have recognized the importance of preserving a wide variety of seeds. At the height of the Cold War, the U.S. government decided to start banking seeds for staples such as corn and soybeans.

In the mid-1990s and early 2000s, various United Nations organizations began warning about dwindling seed varieties. They also started suggesting that the global agricultural system, narrowed to growing plant hybrids best for mass harvest and shipment, had led to a dangerous decline in food crop biodiversity. It was a situation policymakers worried could threaten the global food supply. Countries around the world got together to donate seeds to the Svalbard Global Seed Vault, a highly protected underground bunker of global food security located in the Norwegian Arctic.

But in recent years – especially since the COVID-19 pandemic – there’s been a growing movement of everyday individuals to get in on the seed-saving action, as well.

“There is a real urgency around how we think about food and how we access it,” says Mike Bollinger, executive director at Seed Savers Exchange, an Iowa-based nonprofit focused on saving and sharing seeds.

Ali Martin/The Christian Science Monitor
A wooden rack displays seeds for beans, beets, broccoli, and other vegetables at the National Heirloom Exposition in Ventura, California, Sept. 10, 2024. These are from Siskiyou Seeds, which sells heirloom and organic seeds from small growers in the northwest United States.

And heritage seeds are particularly valuable for biodiversity, seed experts say. These types of seeds are naturally pollinated and have been passed down from one generation to the next, traced back for at least 50 years.

Swapping seeds at the library and beyond

During the pandemic, interest in gardening spiked as people sought food independence and new hobbies. People rushed to buy seed packets, but often found them sold out. Mr. Cohen, who also runs a seed company, sold more seeds between March and May of 2020 than he had in the previous five years combined.

But slowly, those involved with seeds say, everyday people started to remember something humans have known for millennia, and a niche group of growers in the U.S. have been advocating for decades: Plants don’t need to start off in little paper packets, or in plastic containers at the nursery. It’s possible to save seeds from one season to the next – to share them, plant them, and swap them.

Indeed, Mr. Bollinger says, Seed Savers Exchange was formed with the idea that the best way to preserve a rich variety of food plants was to get as many seeds as possible into household gardens. Today, the organization keeps the largest nongovernmental seed bank in the country, with some 20,000 varieties – all ready to be exchanged and grown across the U.S.

Over the past decade, many public libraries and other groups have started seed-lending programs. The idea is that residents can “borrow” seeds for a season, plant them, and then return seeds from harvested fruits and vegetables.

Ali Martin/The Christian Science Monitor
Rezha Macedonian peppers sit on a table at the National Heirloom Exposition in Ventura, California, Sept. 10, 2024. Rezha, which means “engraved,” references the distinctive lines that fill the long, spicy pepper. They are grown in small batches from heirloom seeds from North Macedonia.
Ali Martin/The Christian Science Monitor
Kajari melons are on display at the Heirloom Expo in Ventura, California, Sept. 10, 2024. These small, sweet, green-and-orange striped melons are grown from heirloom seeds originally from India.

Rebecca Newburn founded the Seed Library Network to help consolidate these efforts, with seed packets available everywhere from universities to neighborhood Little Free Library boxes. The interest, she says, has been “growing and growing” since she developed the idea in the late 2000s. Last year, more than 2,200 people from 35 countries registered for the online Seed Library Network summit.

“People come to seeds from different places and connect to them in different ways,” Ms. Newburn says.

Some growers are worried about climate change, she says, and want to test out varieties that might fare better in a hotter, drier, or wetter environment. Others worry about corporations controlling so much of the food supply.

The most recent data available from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows that, from 2018 to 2020, two companies – Corteva and Bayer (formerly Monsanto) – provided more than half of the corn, soybean, and cotton seed sales in the U.S. Intellectual property laws often prohibit farmers from saving these hybrid seeds from one season to the next. (Companies say that this has allowed them to spend more on research and development efforts that allow for improved crop productivity.)

Four agrochemical companies now control the vast majority of commercial seeds in the U.S., along with most of the insecticides, herbicides, and fungicides sold for agricultural use, as well as the digital technology used for harvest.

Seeds with a story

All of that, experts say, has led to larger yields and improved efficiency in the agricultural sector. But it also raises concerns about “seed freedom” – an important theme at last month’s Heirloom Expo.

There’s a place for mass-produced food, says Lisa Riznikove, who brokers heirloom grains and beans as the founder of Foodocracy, a nonprofit organization based in California that promotes small-batch farmers and food producers. “But those things were not bred to be tasty or nutrient-dense,” she says. “They were bred for high yield. That isn’t necessarily the tastiest, nor is it necessarily the most nutrient-dense version of that plant.”

Ms. Riznikove is running a booth at the Heirloom Expo, inside a large vendor hall. She knows all the stories behind her seeds, whether it’s a seashore black rye that was popular in the 1800s or a tepary bean that can be traced back 5,000 years through archeological digs in Mexico.

Ali Martin/The Christian Science Monitor
Will Anderson and his daughter peruse displays of fruits and vegetables at the National Heirloom Exposition in Ventura, California, Sept. 10, 2024. Mr. Anderson and his family grow as much of their own produce as possible.

Indeed, heirloom seeds have histories; they are from a specific place, grown by specific people. A great-grandmother carried them from the old country. A neighbor offered them to share an important flavor from her past.

“Heirlooms are really varieties that have a sense of place and time. They have a story behind them,” says Michelle Johnson, a media specialist with Baker Creek Seeds, the largest heirloom seed company in the U.S.

They also allow for self sufficiency. That’s why Will Anderson and his family traveled to this expo from Phelan, a rural community in California’s high desert.

Growing your own food is a lot of work – but it’s also incredibly rewarding, he says. “We go out to the garden and relax, even though it takes all the time to water. But when you’re done ... it’s nice to see everything you did finally pay off.”

Ali Martin reported from Ventura, California, and Stephanie Hanes from Northampton, Massachusetts.

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Historic grievances, new friends

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A year of war has left many Israelis and Palestinians doubting that they will ever find a way to trust each other. France and Madagascar may offer a blueprint.

Last week, the two countries formed a joint scientific committee to facilitate the repatriation of human remains that had been taken from the African island nation and placed in the National Museum of Natural History in Paris. The panel marks the first step in implementing a law passed by the French Parliament a year ago to address grievances from France’s colonial past.

The French author of that legislation called it “an act of reconciliation.” The granddaughter of a Malagasy king beheaded during a rebellion against French rule in 1897 agreed. The king’s skull was carted across continents to be set on display. Its return, she told Radio France Internationale, “would be a sign of forgiveness between the Malagasy and the French.”

The two countries have declared a historic moment of reconciliation. Laying aside old wounds, they are restoring a future of dignity and redemption.

Historic grievances, new friends

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A motorcycle drives between baobab trees near Morondava, Madagascar.

A year of war has left many Israelis and Palestinians doubting that they will ever find a way to trust each other. France and Madagascar may offer a blueprint.

Last week, the two countries formed a joint scientific committee to facilitate the repatriation of human remains that had been taken from the African island nation and placed in the National Museum of Natural History in Paris. The panel marks the first step in implementing a law passed by the French Parliament a year ago to address grievances from France’s colonial past.

The French author of that legislation called it “an act of reconciliation.” The granddaughter of a Malagasy king beheaded during a rebellion against French rule in 1897 agreed. The king’s skull was carted across continents to be set on display. Its return, she told Radio France Internationale, “would be a sign of forgiveness between the Malagasy and the French.”

The collaboration between France and Madagascar is the latest in a widening global trend of reconciliation between peoples bound together by painful shared histories. Many of those efforts start with apologies. Yet for many societies, salving a divided past requires a practical gesture of remorse that opens the way toward a united future.

“‘The moral core of apology,’” wrote Alexander Karn, a history professor at Colgate University, quoting Zohar Kampf and Nava Löwenheim, “is precisely its capacity to help us envision a world where a higher, more altruistic standard of conduct might gain influence. ... Atonement, for those seeking it, is always elaborated through the next steps taken toward it.”

One step, however genuine, often leads to others. Germany, for example, signed a declaration with Namibia in 2021 to pay reparations to Namibia for colonial-era massacres. The two countries are now discussing possible ways to restore equality through land reforms. Both Canada and Australia have followed apologies with reparations to Indigenous communities for forced-education policies.

Such measures are about more than material compensation. Museums in Europe and the United States have begun in recent years to negotiate the return of artifacts to their lands of origin. Those exchanges acknowledge the dignity of individuals and societies through the recovery of their own narratives. They are also fostering deeper respect and empathy through collaborations among curators from different backgrounds.

Items in French museums include tens of thousands of human bones collected across the lands the country once subjugated. That includes Madagascar, where France ruled during more than 60 years punctuated by violent repression and forced resettlements. The two countries have declared a historic moment of reconciliation. Laying aside old wounds, they are restoring a future of dignity and redemption.

A Christian Science Perspective

About this feature

Each weekday, the Monitor includes one clearly labeled religious article offering spiritual insight on contemporary issues, including the news. The publication – in its various forms – is produced for anyone who cares about the progress of the human endeavor around the world and seeks news reported with compassion, intelligence, and an essentially constructive lens. For many, that caring has religious roots. For many, it does not. The Monitor has always embraced both audiences. The Monitor is owned by a church – The First Church of Christ, Scientist, in Boston – whose founder was concerned with both the state of the world and the quality of available news.

The role of integrity in healing

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Learning that we express God’s goodness – fully and completely – brings healing.

The role of integrity in healing

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Today's Christian Science Perspective audio edition

It was a sterling example of integrity – his and hers. On his way to the home of a synagogue official named Jairus, Christ Jesus stopped to identify and attend to someone in the crowd surrounding him. A woman had touched the hem of his clothes in her desperate search for healing. She was considered unclean because of her long-standing illness, and religious law prohibited her from coming in contact with anyone.

When she came forward to Jesus, she fearfully but honestly admitted that she had touched him and been healed. Jesus lovingly said to her, “Daughter, thy faith hath made thee whole; go in peace, and be whole of thy plague” (Mark 5:34).

This Bible story shows two sides of integrity, and both are important in healing. One is the morality expressed by the woman’s faith, honesty, and resolve. The other, and higher, meaning of integrity is what Jesus gave to the woman – an understanding of herself as whole, free from sin and disease.

The message “Be whole” speaks to us, too. Much around us – relationships, government, health, and so on – can feel broken. We yearn to repair what’s troubling us. And, like the woman, we can trust our pure desire for good to guide us to Christ, God’s healing message to human consciousness assuring us that we and all are already whole.

If we want to follow Jesus in healing ourselves and others (and we can), strong moral qualities such as honesty and humility are essential. It’s important, however, to let morality lead us beyond human goodness to spirituality, or a closer walk with God, divine Spirit.

The human sense of virtue tends to accept evil as existing alongside good, whereas Jesus healed by acknowledging that good alone is God-derived and powerful. He proved that only good constitutes reality.

As Mary Baker Eddy healed others following her discovery of Christian Science, she saw that humanity needed to be educated out of the belief that evil is real. She explains in “Science and Health with Key to the Scriptures,” “If goodness and spirituality are real, evil and materiality are unreal and cannot be the outcome of an infinite God, good” (p. 277).

How do we arrive at a place in our prayers where evil – whether sin or disease – no longer appears powerful and real to us? We might start by acknowledging and deeply yielding to God’s abundant goodness. God makes Himself apparent to us as the Principle of all good, which does not create disease or know it.

The belief that we are material would keep us from accepting that we are whole. But knowing that health is a condition of Mind, God, and not matter shows us that our lives do not rely upon matter.

We are able to see that all is well with us because a completely good God, divine Mind, is the source of what we truly are as Mind’s likeness. Our unity with God is our integrity and gives us all the qualities of Mind – including purity, understanding, and strength – that make us forever whole.

Grasping this spiritual truth begins right away to remove the fears and false beliefs that produce sickness.

My husband and I were in North Africa when I unexpectedly experienced many days of an abnormal menstrual flow. As a Christian Science practitioner prayed for me, I continued traveling. One day, about a week later, I felt I’d reached out and touched the hem of Christ, Truth, and received fresh inspiration. I called the practitioner to say that these words from a hymn seemed so true to me: “Rejoice, for thou art whole” (John Randall Dunn, “Christian Science Hymnal,” No. 374, © CSBD).

This assured me that God cares for me the way a parent cares for a child. I didn’t have to believe that any abnormal action of the body had reality or staying power. I could stop worrying about bodily overaction and confidently know that God had made me, and all creation, purely spiritual and that this recognition would correct the abnormality.

That day marked the end of the problem.

No discordant condition can take away our recognition that we express all the qualities of Mind, including health. Healing comes with the understanding of our spiritual integrity that Christ reveals to our receptive heart. Daily we can come to know our indivisible oneness with God. Harmony and health, not discord and disease, belong to what we all really are – God’s whole man, Spirit’s likeness.

Adapted from an editorial published in the Jan. 29, 2024, issue of the Christian Science Sentinel.

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A new chapter

Kim Soo-hyeon/Reuters
People read the book “The Vegetarian,” by Han Kang, in a bookstore in Seoul, South Korea, Oct. 10. On Thursday, Ms. Han won the 2024 Nobel Prize in literature. Her work was noted for its “intense poetic prose that confronts historical traumas and exposes the fragility of human life.”
( The illustrations in today’s Monitor Daily are by Karen Norris. )

A look ahead

We have a bonus read for you today. Been wondering about the details of the political road map known as Project 2025, and the feasibility of implementing its recommendations? Sophie Hills offers this explainer.

For the coming days, we’re working on a report from Lebanon about the effects on Hezbollah of Israel’s sustained attacks there, and on stories from the U.S. South about the humanitarian and political impacts of back-to-back hurricanes there. 

More issues

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