Under normal circumstances, it would have been a minor purchase – something for a picnic, perhaps. But after surviving three Russian missile attacks on their apartment block, Alisa Zosimova and her husband are counting on their new gas camping stove to give them confidence to confront what threatens to be a hard winter.

“I am worried that we won’t have light, heating, or water for a week or more,” says Ms. Zosimova, out shopping on the weekend in the wake of massive Russian missile and drone attacks that have damaged or destroyed one-third of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and subjected more than a million Ukrainian households to power cuts.

Another wave of attacks rocked the country Saturday morning. In Kyiv, power cuts of 4 to 5 hours are becoming the new norm. Street lighting on the capital’s major arteries has been reduced, and residential side streets sit in total darkness as the moon rises. There are no signs yet that morale is flagging, but the attacks have darkened the outlook for winter.

“Russia aims to destroy the entire energy infrastructure of Ukraine,” says Volodymyr Kudrytskii, head of the board of Ukrenergo, the national electricity distributor, by email. “The enemy seeks to disrupt the heating season and leave Ukrainians without light and heat in winter,” when temperatures routinely drop well below freezing.

Dominique Soguel

Pavlo Melnykov and Alisa Zosimova pose for a photo after shopping for emergency supplies. They worry that power cuts could deprive them of heat and light for days at a time.

“All regions are suffering from attacks on energy facilities in one way or another,” notes Antonina Atosha, spokeswoman for the Ukrainian power generator Dtek. Five of the six power plants under its control have been hit in the last two weeks, bringing the employee death toll since the war began to 94. “There is no doubt that their goal is a complete blackout.”

About 1,000 technicians, organized into 70 mobile repair teams, are working around the clock to restore the power transmission system, says Mr. Kudrytskii. They have been assisted by European electricity distributors that have donated generators, transformers, and other equipment needed for repairs, he says.

Dtek, however, remains in “dire need” of equipment of all kinds to generate more power, warns Ms. Atosha in an email interview.

“There are only two ways to prevent the total destruction of the energy system,” she says – better air defenses or an end to the war.

Since Russian President Vladimir Putin unleashed heavy, nationwide airstrikes against Ukrainian infrastructure targets on Oct. 10, Washington and other NATO capitals have pledged to step up their supplies of air defense materiel.

Scott Peterson/Getty Images/The Christian Science Monitor

Ukrainian electricity workers restore power lines damaged during six months of Russian military occupation in Balakliia, eastern Ukraine, on Sept. 29, 2022. About 1,000 technicians are working around the clock to repair electricity generation and transmission facilities damaged by recent Russian airstrikes.

Gas stoves and thermal underwear

In Kyiv, a sense of relative safety still reigns, although air sirens are heeded with renewed respect. During the weekend, shoppers crowded stores selling the sort of practical items needed in an emergency.

“Demand has drastically increased for all our products,” since Oct. 10, when the capital experienced its first 24-hour blackout of the war, reports Andrii Skoba, a salesman at the Gorgany camping shop in Kyiv. “We buy 10 boxes of gas stoves, but by the end of the day they are all gone. Now demand is 20 to 30 times higher” than it used to be, he says.

His customers this month are not the usual crowd of outdoors enthusiasts, either. Many high-earning IT sector workers were among those buying “just in case” emergency supplies on Saturday. Top of their shopping lists? Gas camping stoves, sleeping bags, and warm clothes such as thermal underwear and merino wool socks.

“This time of the year is usually low season because it is rainy,” Mr. Skoba explains. “But now our clients are either civilians who want camping gas stoves to cook in their basements, or soldiers for the front line.”

Among the shoppers are Nastia and Vladimir, who relocated from the shellshocked city of Kharkiv to Kyiv on the assumption that the capital would be safer and easier for work. The recent attacks on the capital, the unexpected daylong blackout, and now scheduled power cuts have undermined their sense of security.

“We hope to have light tonight so we can have dinner at home,” says Vladimir. But just in case, the couple has made backup plans to eat meat and porridge cooked on the gas stoves of friends who have already purchased the necessary gear.

“For sure it will be a hard winter,” says Nastia, who works in human resources. “There will be more strikes. They won’t just stop. But I am sure we can get through it. The main thing is that we survive.”

“It will be hard”

Elsewhere in Kyiv, Nikolai Ivanovich, a white-haired, wiry older man, strides the aisles of the Epicentr megastore, ignoring saws and axes and other equipment, until he finally finds what he is looking for – a wood-burning stove. He plans to install it in his dacha, a simple summer home in the countryside where he will spend the winter.

“If there are not too many drones and missiles then I am sure we will survive the winter,” he says. “And, if need be, retired men like me will go fight.”

Dominique Soguel

Nikolai Ivanovich inspects a wood-burning stove that he plans to install in his country cottage for the winter.

Electricity supplies had not been a problem in Ukraine until two weeks ago. Daily consumption fell by 30% when the Russians invaded, prompting millions to flee and many businesses to close. Indeed, since the war began, Ukraine had been exporting its surplus electricity to neighboring European countries.

But its own consumption had been rising recently, as businesses reopened, refugees returned in the wake of a string of Ukrainian battlefield successes, and autumn ushered in a seasonal increase in electricity use.

Adding to the difficulties, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and a hydropower station at Kakhovka are occupied by the Russian army, and feeding nothing into the Ukrainian national grid. With so much damage now done to remaining power plants and grid facilities, power cuts are inevitable, says Ukrenergo board chief Mr. Kudrytskii.

Back at Epicentr, everything from diesel-powered generators to candles were flying off the shelves on Saturday; by closing time, the shop had sold out of both large generators capable of powering a household and smaller ones suitable for a lamp.

Ukrainians “know who the enemy is and that they have to prepare ahead,” says Lyudmila Morozyuk, Epicentr’s wholesale manager. “Of course, it is uncomfortable and people get nervous, but they are not broken.”

Ms. Morozyuk herself spent six months without water, heat, or light in her village in the eastern region of Luhansk in 2014, when Russia backed Ukrainian separatists’ efforts to break away from Kyiv.

Remembering that time, she frets because most of her appliances need electricity. 

“I am not in a panic,” she says. “But I realize it will be hard.”

Oleksandr Naselenko supported the reporting of this article.

The moment was lost on no one: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, speaking at a lectern bearing the presidential seal. Behind him stood the actual president, Joe Biden, awaiting his turn. 

The two men, Republican and Democrat, were appearing in storm-ravaged Fort Myers earlier this month in a rare display of rise-above-it-all comity, pledging cooperation after the deadliest hurricane to hit Florida since 1935. 

But it’s Governor DeSantis who’s getting the credit for Hurricane Ian response. Nationally, even 43% of Democrats approve of his storm performance, according to an Economist/YouGov poll. Always favored in his Nov. 8 reelection bid, he now appears a virtual lock. Which means the buzz about a likely 2024 presidential run is about to go into overdrive. 

“Of any living American today, Ron DeSantis has the hottest hand in politics,” says David Jolly, a former GOP congressman from Tampa who is now an independent, and not a DeSantis fan. 

Mr. DeSantis catapulted onto the national stage early in the COVID-19 pandemic when he fought mask mandates and pushed hard on businesses – and especially schools – to reopen. Later, he also vocally opposed vaccine mandates. 

Since then, he has shown a keen ability to retain the spotlight, picking culture war fights by flying Venezuelan migrants to Martha’s Vineyard and taking on Disney over LGBTQ issues. At the same time, he’s demonstrated a technocratic competence as governor, for example rapidly rebuilding washed-out bridges in the wake of the hurricane.

Political analysts note that Mr. DeSantis remains, in key ways, untested.

“Everybody has an Achilles’ heel,” says Brad Coker, managing partner at Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, based in Jacksonville, whose latest poll has Mr. DeSantis winning reelection by 11 percentage points. “What happens when he faces what most people consider a setback?” 

Governing a state, albeit one as big and complicated as Florida, is one thing; simultaneously running an effective presidential campaign is another. While longtime observers say he’s improved on the stump, he’s not a natural glad-hander. Some see parallels to past rising stars – such as former Republican Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin – whose White House bids crashed and burned.

Then there’s the “elephant” in the room. Former President Donald Trump has strongly suggested he intends to run in 2024 and is reportedly irritated that his onetime protégé hasn’t promised to stand aside if he does. Right now, national polls show that Mr. Trump would beat Mr. DeSantis handily in a GOP primary, though it’s early. Mr. Trump has been quoted privately mocking Mr. DeSantis’ voice and appearance, but he has not yet subjected the Florida governor to the withering treatment given to former rivals like “Lyin’ Ted” Cruz or “Little Marco” Rubio.

Phelan M. Ebenhack/AP

Florida’s Governor DeSantis addresses attendees during the Turning Point USA Student Action Summit on July 22, 2022, in Tampa, Florida. The Republican, who is considered a favorite to win reelection Nov. 8, will face his opponent, former Gov. Charlie Crist, in a debate Oct. 24, 2022.

Still, DeSantis supporters argue that in presidential politics, it’s imperative for candidates to seize their “moment” – since lightning rarely strikes twice. And there are reasons to believe the ex-president may be weaker than he appears. Mr. Trump is facing multiple expensive legal challenges that could complicate a 2024 bid. And after his one tumultuous term, some supporters seem ready for a fresh face – suggesting there could be a market for a Trump 2.0 without the baggage. 

“DeSantis has enough of Trump’s ‘own the libs’ style to appeal to the base, without being too much for women and other Republican-leaning swing voters,” writes Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor and DeSantis ally, in an email. “He’s more low-key than Trump. But he’s also more disciplined.”

How Mr. DeSantis manages this relationship will be crucial, as he attempts to convince the MAGA base it’d be better off with a new standard-bearer. An ugly primary fight could damage his political career. But if he wins it, he’d be seen as a giant slayer – an enviable position for an underdog, as Barack Obama could attest.

“DeSantis has a lot going for him,” Mr. Eberhart adds. “He’s got a great résumé. He can’t afford to wait to see whether Trump is in or not, and he knows it.”

Who is Ron DeSantis?  

Mr. DeSantis grew up in Dunedin, Florida, a modest suburb of Tampa. His father installed Nielsen TV rating boxes; his mother was a nurse. A top student and star athlete, Mr. DeSantis graduated from Yale and Harvard Law. He then served in the Navy as a judge advocate general, earning a Bronze Star for meritorious service in Iraq.

His political career began at age 34, when he won the first of three terms in Congress, representing a district south of Jacksonville. In 2018, he became Florida’s 46th governor.  

Described from an early age as disciplined and studious, Mr. DeSantis appears to have retained those habits into adulthood. People who know the governor say he reads voraciously and absorbs vast amounts of information. Those around him say that as a politician, he harnesses reams of data to inform his decisions.

In baseball and other competitive pursuits, the young DeSantis achieved an unusual degree of success. At age 12, his team made it to the Little League World Series. Friends from Dunedin High, where his team played in the state championship, recall his focus and determination – both as a ballplayer and as a member of the debate team. 

At Yale, he was captain of the baseball team his senior year, like former President George H.W. Bush decades earlier. In a 2018 interview, coach John Stuper spoke glowingly of Mr. DeSantis’ work ethic.

Phelan M. Ebenhack/AP

Casey DeSantis (center) acknowledges applause after being recognized by her husband during his State of the State address Jan. 11, 2022, in Tallahassee, Florida. By many accounts, she is Governor DeSantis’ closest adviser.

“You look at his transcript his last two years, there wasn’t a B on it,” Mr. Stuper told the Tampa Bay Times. “How he could work 20 hours a week at baseball, probably that many hours a week at various jobs, and still kill it in the classroom like he did is pretty amazing.”

Mr. DeSantis was an outfielder, a position that requires watching how the ball is hit and quickly getting there – not a bad metaphor for his career in politics. Lawmakers who served with Mr. DeSantis describe an instinctive politician who could see early on where his party was headed and position himself accordingly. 

“He’s not a hard-line conservative, nor is he transforming the party,” says Mr. Jolly, who spent nearly three years in Congress with Mr. DeSantis before leaving the GOP in 2018. “He’s a mirror to the party.” 

In 2012, in his first, successful congressional campaign, Mr. DeSantis ran as a tea party candidate, advocating for low taxes and small government. In Congress, he was a co-founder of the far-right Freedom Caucus. Still, he wasn’t above reaching out to a more moderate Republican, Carlos Curbelo of Miami, and helping him raise funds for his first House race in 2014. 

“We had a good relationship, but we didn’t have a close relationship,” former Representative Curbelo says, adding, “I don’t think he had a close relationship with anyone [in Congress]. When people ask me who he was close to, I say Casey [his wife], and that’s it.” 

Florida political players credit the governor’s wife, Casey DeSantis, a former Jacksonville TV host, with helping him improve his public presentation skills, particularly in front of crowds. In small settings, conservative activists say, he can come across as uncomfortable and aloof.

But Ms. DeSantis’ role goes far beyond media training: By many accounts, she is his top adviser. In the wake of the hurricane, the governor put her in charge of raising money for a state disaster relief fund, and took the unusual step of giving her a prominent speaking role at recent storm briefings. 

Like many political spouses, Ms. DeSantis helps soften her husband’s image. She appears in a recent campaign ad called “That Is Who Ron DeSantis Is,” speaking emotionally about how he helped her get through a breast cancer diagnosis. Along with their three young children, the DeSantises present a family portrait that his unmarried Democratic rival, former Gov. Charlie Crist, can’t match. But a sympathetic spouse can only do so much. 

“You want the candidate to be the likable one,” says a conservative political strategist speaking on background to preserve his relationship with both Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Trump. “If you look at candidates who’ve won for president, the more likable one wins in almost every case.” 

John Raoux/AP/File

Guests watch a show at Walt Disney World in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. After Disney criticized a new state law attempting to regulate the teaching of gender and sexuality in schools, Governor DeSantis signed legislation on April 23, 2022 that would potentially strip the theme park of a decades-old special agreement that allowed it to govern itself.

A pragmatist turned culture warrior 

In 2016, as Mr. Trump made his first bid for the White House, Mr. DeSantis ran for the Senate. He dropped out of the primary after the incumbent, Senator Rubio, quit his presidential bid to run for reelection – and quickly set his sights on the 2018 Florida governor’s race.

Not the Republican favorite to begin with, Mr. DeSantis made multiple appearances on Fox News, where he caught Mr. Trump’s attention and, eventually, his endorsement in the primary. He went on to win the general election by fewer than 34,000 votes.

Mr. DeSantis began his governorship as a coalition-builder, surprising some by prioritizing the environment. But by the end of Mr. Trump’s term in the Oval Office, it was clear the Florida governor was building a record that would appeal to a national Republican primary electorate.

His breakout moment came with the pandemic. After imposing a 30-day stay-at-home order in the spring of 2020, he quickly pivoted to lifting restrictions. Late that summer, Mr. DeSantis pressured superintendents to reopen schools, bucking federal health guidance, and threatening to withhold state funding in some cases.  

He then took on the cruise ship industry, championing a state law that banned verification of vaccination for passengers. Critics charged that his policies would result in widespread deaths. As of this month, Florida had the 13th-highest COVID-19 mortality rate. Its economy, on the other hand, bounced back more quickly.

Since then, he has used his bully pulpit to rebrand what used to be the nation’s biggest battleground state into a national headquarters of conservatism. He regularly refers to Florida as a “free state.” 

As governor, Mr. DeSantis has frequently focused on education, an issue where Democrats have lost much of their political advantage. His administration collaborated on school civics curricula with conservative Hillsdale College in Michigan. Last spring, he signed legislation that supporters dubbed the “Stop WOKE Act” – critics labeled it “Don’t Say Gay” – which aims to regulate how schools and businesses address race and gender. He led the charge in banning the teaching of critical race theory in Florida schools, and earned headlines when the state subsequently banned certain math textbooks for “indoctrinating” students.

Mr. DeSantis’ aggressive posture as a culture warrior may seem out of step in a state where Republicans only overtook Democrats in voter registration last November. At times, he has faced repercussions for his actions – as with the migrant flights, which are facing legal scrutiny by the Justice Department.

But among the Republican primary electorate, the pushback may be a plus: He’s seen as a fighter. His campaign ad “Top Gov,” highlighting his famously contentious relationship with the news media, captures the vibe. Last May, he drew criticism after scolding high school students for wearing masks – only to double down in a tweet, referring scornfully to “COVID theater.” 

DeSantis critics see his pugilism as bordering on bullying. Mr. Jolly, his former House colleague, calls him “angry” and “temperamental.” 

Still, the governor has also shown a savvy instinct for which fights to avoid. In the wake of the Supreme Court’s ruling overturning Roe v. Wade, Mr. DeSantis has declined to advocate for a ban on abortion. Instead, he signed legislation that allows abortions until 15 weeks’ gestation, and allows some abortions after that point, such as to save the life of the mother, but not in cases of rape or incest. 

Mr. DeSantis has also not explicitly referred to the 2020 election as “stolen,” though he has endorsed and campaigned for candidates who do.  

On climate change, Mr. DeSantis signed a bill dedicating $640 million toward preparing communities for sea level rise and flooding. Climate advocates say he needs to address the root causes of the problem, namely greenhouse gas emissions. But at least, they add, he improved on former GOP Gov. Rick Scott’s position, which included forbidding the state Department of Environmental Protection from even using the words “climate change” or “global warming.”  

Butch Dill/AP/File

President Donald Trump stands behind his endorsee, then-Representative DeSantis, at a rally in Pensacola, Florida, Nov. 3, 2018. Mr. DeSantis went on to edge out Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum for the governorship by fewer than 34,000 votes.

DeSantis vs. Trump 

“Who do you want for 2024?” At a recent meeting of the Republican club in Hallandale Beach – an oceanfront community in deep-blue Broward County – Joe D’Uva doesn’t hesitate. 

“Donald Trump needs another four years to get the job done,” says the retiree from Long Island, who’s vice chair of the Broward Republicans. “No. 1, finish the wall. No. 2, make us energy independent again, the way he had us before these people took over. No. 3, require kids to have a semester of civics before they finish high school.”

Dolores Leon, who divides her time between Hallandale Beach and Virginia’s Fairfax County, is also on Team Trump. 

“Even with all his legal challenges, the momentum for Trump down here is like a freight train,” says Ms. Leon, president of an organization that helps military spouses. “No matter what they throw at him, nothing will stick.” 

If Mr. Trump doesn’t run for some reason, she adds, “then yes, I would love to see DeSantis run. Though that would be chaos down here.”

Many Florida conservatives say they shouldn’t have to choose: If Mr. DeSantis stays on for a full second term as governor, then he can run for president in 2028 or 2032. After all, at just 44, he’s the youngest governor in the country. 

One Republican connected to both camps suggests that Mr. DeSantis should defer to Mr. Trump in the name of party unity. But others with dual loyalties don’t see the governor standing down.

Still, 2024 is a long way away – and anything could happen. There’s even the possibility a new rising star gains traction.

“It could be Kari Lake’s party by 2028,” says Mr. Jolly, referring to the charismatic Republican gubernatorial candidate in Arizona. Others see Ms. Lake as a potential running mate for Mr. Trump.

The former president and Mr. DeSantis have been circling each other for months. Mr. Trump has not endorsed Mr. DeSantis’ reelection bid – because he hasn’t been asked to, says a source familiar with that dynamic. And Mr. DeSantis isn’t inclined to ask, because he doesn’t need the help and doesn’t want to feed Mr. Trump’s belief that he owes him.

A prolific fundraiser, Mr. DeSantis has brought in close to $180 million, outraising Mr. Crist 11 to 1. The governor is reportedly working out a legal way to repurpose excess campaign cash toward a presidential run.

And like Mr. Trump, Mr. DeSantis has been in high demand for campaign appearances around the country. The most personally meaningful may have been a trip to Nevada in April to campaign for Senate candidate Adam Laxalt, Mr. DeSantis’ former roommate at the Naval Justice School. 

Such campaign appearances have given Mr. DeSantis the opportunity to build a national network and test-drive a presidential stump speech. For Mr. Trump, the MAGA road show never seems to grow old. But the slogan Make America Great Again has come to stand for a larger movement that will live on whenever Mr. Trump departs the political stage.

For now, though, Mr. DeSantis is walking a fine line.

“He is trying to stay on Trump’s good side while keeping the base energized for him,” writes Mr. Eberhart, the Republican donor. “He’s a pragmatist who understands the value of following the populist zeitgeist.”

“Trump definitely set the stage for DeSantis’ rise to the national stage,” he adds. “But DeSantis has the skill to stay there.”

Ng Han Guan/AP

A newspaper front page shows Chinese President Xi Jinping at the close of the Chinese Communist Party's 20th Party Congress in Beijing on Oct. 24, 2022. On Oct. 23, Mr. Xi was awarded a third five-year term as party leader in a break with tradition that called for him to step down after 10 years.

A huge set of gold doors swings open, an announcer heralds the “newly elected General Secretary,” and Xi Jinping strides, smiling and waving, onto the red-carpeted stage in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People, confirming his rare third term at the helm of China’s ruling Communist Party.

Clapping and following Mr. Xi is the newly promoted Li Qiang, whose expected installation in March as China’s next premier is all but confirmed by his place next to Mr. Xi as the No. 2 member of the party’s seven-man Politburo Standing Committee.

At Sunday’s press event unveiling China’s new leadership lineup, the rise of Mr. Li was telling. As the Party Secretary of Shanghai, Mr. Li oversaw a draconian and unpopular lockdown of the city’s 25 million people during a major COVID-19 outbreak last spring, triggering protests and even calls for his dismissal. But Mr. Li stuck with the strict zero-COVID-19 strategy mandated by Mr. Xi, and his loyalty and close ties with Mr. Xi secured his promotion.

“The lockdown ... was a disaster for the residents of Shanghai, but ... it signaled Li was willing to put loyalty to Xi above everything else,” says Neil Thomas, senior analyst for China and Northeast Asia at the Eurasia Group think tank. 

Indeed, unwavering fealty and tight connections with Mr. Xi have emerged as the main criteria for rising to the top in China today. Three of the newly promoted Politburo Standing Committee members, Mr. Li, Cai Qi, and Ding Xuexiang, have all served alongside Mr. Xi as his secretaries. All fit the mold of “yes men” rather than independent-minded officials willing to push back, experts say.

“They are all quite familiar to you,” Mr. Xi told the press as he introduced his new lineup – a familiarity that runs far deeper between the men and Mr. Xi himself.

“These are not just people who have worked with Xi Jinping. These are people who are deeply trusted by Xi Jinping,” says Victor Shih, an expert on the elite politics of China as examined in his recent book, “Coalitions of the Weak.”

Ng Han Guan/AP

New members of the Politburo Standing Committee, from left, Li Xi, Cai Qi, Zhao Leji, President Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, Wang Huning, and Ding Xuexiang are introduced at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Oct. 23, 2022. Two key members of the main competing faction – Premier Li Keqiang and Wang Yang, head of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference – were both retired from the Politburo Standing Committee, although based on their ages they could have served an additional five-year term.

New extremes

Overall, the leadership overhaul at the just-concluded 20th Party Congress and related meetings marks a new extreme in Mr. Xi’s imposition of personalized, strongman rule together with his dismantling of the institutional norms and collective leadership built over 30 years by his post-Mao Zedong predecessors, experts say.

“What we see here is the collective leadership form that Deng Xiaoping tried to establish in China after Mao died – Xi has pretty much completely destroyed and replaced it with a personalistic leadership system,” says Susan Shirk, a research professor and chair of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego.

In concentrating power in his own hands, Mr. Xi has jettisoned age limits for himself and proteges, while prematurely retiring members of rival factions, experts say.

Amid the recent wave of promotions, for example, key members of the main competing faction – made of officials affiliated with the Communist Youth League and represented by Mr. Xi’s predecessor Hu Jintao – were left out. Premier Li Keqiang and Wang Yang, head of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, were both retired from the Politburo Standing Committee, although based on their ages they could have served an additional five-year term. Vice Premier Hu Chunhua, well under retirement age, was not selected to remain on the Politburo.

Mr. Hu Jintao’s abrupt, escorted departure from the closing ceremony of the congress on Saturday – caught on camera and officially attributed to issues with the ex-leader’s health – also sparked speculation that his removal was part of a calculated effort to limit the influence of past leaders who may disagree with Mr. Xi.

One reason for Mr. Xi’s drive to surround himself with officials who will carry out his orders without question, experts say, is his view that China faces looming outside threats and must show unity in an emergency such as a financial crisis or war.

Indeed, at Sunday’s press conference, Mr. Xi raised such concerns, vowing that “we will not be daunted by high winds, choppy waters, or even dangerous storms.”

“For Xi Jinping ... having absolute compliance for his orders is very important now,” says Dr. Shih, associate professor of political economy at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy.

Andy Wong/AP

Chinese President Xi Jinping waves at an event to introduce new members of the Politburo Standing Committee at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Oct. 23, 2022. One reason for Mr. Xi’s drive to surround himself with loyalists, experts say, is his view that China must show unity in the face of looming outside threats.

Smooth sailing, or courting instability?

To be sure, China has chalked up significant accomplishments under Mr. Xi, including reducing corruption, alleviating poverty, keeping COVID-19 deaths far lower than in other countries, and maintaining steady, if slowing, economic growth. He retains broad popularity, especially among China’s nationalists.

Yet Mr. Xi’s top-down style also creates risks of its own, making policy course corrections difficult and even potentially keeping Mr. Xi uninformed if his underlings – rewarded for adhering to his line – are reluctant or afraid to raise contrary opinions or share bad news lest they risk being ousted.

For example, Mr. Xi’s ongoing COVID-19 restrictions are causing regular lockdowns in cities across China and resulting in economic damage, even as they keep cases and deaths low.

Difficult, structural reforms vital to the long-term health of China’s economy may also be less likely under Mr. Xi, experts say.

“The overall policy mix Xi is pursuing is taking China further away from the right type of reforms that would actually solve its deep-seated problems,” says Mr. Thomas. “Xi having more allies at the top helps him do more of what he wants, but what he wants to do is not what’s best for solving China’s problems.”

A related risk is that of political instability in the longer term, experts say, as Mr. Xi’s dominance could lead to opposition from frustrated elites, especially if public dissatisfaction grows with a slowing economy and Mr. Xi’s tighter Party controls over society and business.

“There’s an impression zero-COVID has really undercut public support for Xi Jinping in cities, and if that’s the case, the risk of splits in the leadership is greater,” says Dr. Shirk, author of “Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise.”

Mr. Xi’s ultimate succession is also a concern. As he has secured a path to lifelong rule, he has given no clear indication that he has designated a successor.

“The risk of a disorderly succession is one of the most underappreciated political risks in China under Xi’s rule, because these norms of succession have been decisively broken,” says Mr. Thomas.

A desire to do the right thing motivates the individuals featured in our selections this month. In novels and biographies, each person is depicted in the process of growth and change, moving toward understanding. 

1. Dinosaurs, by Lydia Millet

Lydia Millet delivers a beautifully written account of a brokenhearted Manhattanite who seeks a fresh life in Arizona ... by walking there. With spot-on dialogue and observations both pointed and forgiving, the novel reveals the influence of one man’s decency. 

2. The Consequences, by Manuel Muñoz

In the opening story of Manuel Muñoz’s latest collection, a character recalls “that strangers only introduced themselves when they needed something.” The needs here are great: Characters old and young, legal and unauthorized, gay and straight long for work, community, independence. Set in the small farming towns of California and Texas, the stories evoke the uneasy “in-betweenness” of lives that cross borders.

3, The Slowworm’s Song, by Andrew Miller

When British ex-soldier Stephen Rose is summoned to testify about a traumatic incident that happened during the Troubles in Belfast, Ireland, 30 years ago, his world is shaken. Worried his testimony might jeopardize his recently renewed relationship with his daughter, Maggie, Stephen composes an exquisitely moving epistle to her about his life and his hopes for atonement.

4. Swann’s War, by Michael Oren

In 1944 on an island off Massachusetts, the police chief goes off to war, leaving his wife to keep order. When the body of an Italian from the nearby prisoner-of-war camp is found, she must battle rising threats and skepticism about her abilities. The novel is an engaging look into a lesser-known history about Italian Americans’ wartime plight.

5. Eyes Turned Skyward, by Alena Dillon

Alena Dillon honors the trailblazing Women Airforce Service Pilots in this dual-timeline novel. When empty-nester Kathy finds her mother’s invitation to a Medal of Honor ceremony in the mail, her mother’s heroic secret life comes to light. 

6. Indigenous Continent, by Pekka Hämäläinen

This powerful, revelatory history of North America centers the narrative on Native peoples rather than on European colonizers. Instead of “Colonial America,” Oxford University’s Pekka Hämäläinen presents an “Indigenous America,” demonstrating the fundamental influence of Native resilience and resistance on U.S. history.

7. The Revolutionary: Samuel Adams, by Stacy Schiff

The inimitable Stacy Schiff, author of utterly captivating books on, among other things, Cleopatra and the Salem witch trials, returns with a biography of one of the most pivotal and oddly neglected of all the U.S. Founding Fathers: Samuel Adams, cousin to the more famous politician (and second president) John. Schiff’s book finds the real man behind the Revolutionary mythos.

8. The Abyss, by Max Hastings

Max Hastings brings his signature style – a mixture of the grand (sweeping insights into great events) and the granular (carefully sifted details from diaries and letters of ordinary people) – to the much-studied subject of the Cuban missile crisis. The result is a book to match the best things ever written on the subject in terms of immediacy and drama.

9. And There Was Light, by Jon Meacham

The Pulitzer Prize-winning historian’s majestic biography presents Abraham Lincoln as an imperfect man with a strong moral core. Growing and evolving as he struggled to lead the country through calamitous times, the 16th president has ample wisdom for our age.

10. Waging a Good War, by Thomas E. Ricks

Civil rights leaders in the United States waged nonviolent campaigns as carefully as any military operation. A war correspondent explores the strategies and tactics of the leaders and foot soldiers in the fight for Black equality, and the lessons they hold for today.

Reuters

Hu Chunhua takes questions from an audience in a Beijing hotel in 2015 when he was party leader of Guangdong province.

The biggest bombshell coming out of a week-long gathering of China’s ruling Communist Party was not that long-time leader Xi Jinping further consolidated power for another five-year term. Rather it was the surprising ejection of a potential successor to Xi – Hu Chunhua – from the powerful 24-member Politburo.

The ejection was not only of a presumed rival but also of a style of leadership that many Chinese people now prefer as their personal grievances toward the party keep expanding.

As he climbed the party’s hierarchy over decades, Mr. Hu – the son of farmers – was often depicted by the official press as a humble listener, open-minded to criticism and reform. While still loyal to Mr. Xi and the party in imposing firm control over places such as Tibet, he also displayed a willingness to mediate disputes, such as in Guangdong province between local journalists and party censors.

In meetings with foreign officials, too, his willingness to deliberate was also noted. “He genuinely paid interest and attention to what I had to say, as well as to my colleagues from other chambers,” Joerg Wuttke, president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, told Reuters. He was comfortable enough to make a light joke about the European chamber’s long list of complaints about China’s policy. “Other leaders would not have taken that quite (as) well,” said Mr. Wuttke.

China’s Communist Party has long had a tradition of channeling public grievances through private petitions to local officials. Mr. Xi has shifted that process more to the courts where the party has greater control. Now in seeming to rule for life, he has surrounded himself mainly with loyalists who may not challenge him. The world has seen how such a consolidation of power has played out in Russia under Vladimir Putin. His close allies may have avoided telling him of the potential problems in invading Ukraine.

In a 2021 global index by the University of Gothenburg, the level of deliberation in governance has gone down in 32 countries in the previous decade. The index describes deliberation as a “respectful dialogue among informed and competent participants who are open to persuasion.”

Within the secretive politics of China, Mr. Hu was representative of a “populist” faction that sought to listen to the people in order to correct the party’s policies. For dictators, however, listening can be dangerous if the people see their grievances not being met. The rise of China as a peaceful power may depend on whether enough leaders in the party can use their deliberative powers to change the country’s course.