The most important governor's race? Why top politicians are flocking to Ohio.

The Ohio governor's race is shaping up as a bellwether for the 2012 presidential election and a high-stakes referendum on which party can be trusted on the economy in a state that has lost 400,000 jobs in the last three years.

Just note the top-gun politicians stumping for embattled Gov. Ted Strickland (D) or the international press corps trailing both his campaign and that of former Rep. John Kasich, his Republican rival. This week Vice President Joe Biden linked arms with Governor Strickland as he led the Labor Day Parade in Toledo. In Cleveland to unveil an economic recovery plan on Wednesday, President Obama called Strickland “one of the finest governors in this country.”

Next week, President Clinton is due in Ohio to campaign with Strickland, now trailing by 8 to 12 points, according to recent polls. The former president, still highly popular in Ohio, plans to headline rallies and fundraisers to coincide with the first debate between the candidates on Sept. 14. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R), Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R), and Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels (R) have been to the state in support of Kasich.

Just two years before a presidential election, which party controls the governor’s mansion – bully pulpit and state bureaucracy – can have an impact beyond the state. “We take care of Ohio and we’ll have a big voice in who will be the next president of the United States,” said Kasich at a campaign rally outside the (1837) Spread Eagle Tavern in Hanoverton, Ohio, on Wednesday evening.

At the same time, Kasich is running campaign ads criticizing Strickland for the same claim: The ad, “Stop Strickland. Stop Obama,” includes a June 1 clip of Strickland saying, “Whoever wins the governor’s race in 2010 will be well positioned to help carry Ohio and influence the presidential election in 2012.”

Such claims may be “confusing convenience with effectiveness,” says Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia who tracks national and governor’s races. “You go into a state, all the rallies are organized for you, there are cheering crowds, and it looks like there is an unstoppable machine to put the electoral votes in your column,” he says. “All those things are true, but that’s not how people vote.”

The dominant issue for voters in this race is who is responsible for the state’s stunning job loss – and starkly different visions for how to change direction and rebuild the economy. Ohio's unemployment rate was at 10.3 percent in July, according to the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services. The Republican Governors Association is funding ads claiming that 400,000 jobs were lost on Strickland’s watch.

(In fact, the state began losing jobs in 2000, including seven years when Republicans held the governor’s office and both houses of the legislature – but at a slower rate. Ohio has lost more than 568,300 jobs since 2000, including 403,800 in the manufacturing sector, according to PolitiFact Ohio and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.)

It’s an issue facing both Republican and Democratic incumbents in this campaign cycle – the typical response is to blame global factors beyond their control – but it’s especially acute in Ohio.

"Strickland’s biggest challenge has been the economy and the loss of 400,000 jobs, many of which went to other states as opposed to being moved overseas,” concludes the Cook Political Report. “Ohio’s economy was hit by the recession early and while Democrats claim signs of recovery, the economic problems seem intractable.”

As governor, Strickland cut both personal income taxes and business taxes, making Ohio one of only two states without a general tax on corporate profits or personal property used for business. He also reduced the size of state government in response to the state’s fiscal crisis. His campaign is using the same template to attack Kasich that Pennsylvania Democrat Mark Critz successfully used to defeat Republican businessman Tim Burns in a high-profile special election last spring in Pennsylvania's 12th district: Attack the rival’s record on outsourcing jobs – a flashpoint in many old industrial regions.

After retiring from the US House of Representatives in 2000, Kasich joined Lehman Brothers, where he served as managing director of the investment banking firm’s Columbus division. Kasich also gained national exposure as a commentator for Fox News Channel, stepping down in 2007. He is proposing ending the income tax in Ohio altogether and focusing business talent on rebuilding the state economy. He is also proposing firing the state's economic development bureaucracy and privatizing that function.

“We need people in politics who have spent time in business so we can create jobs,” he told a rally of some 300 supporters in Hanoverton. “Texas is growing all the jobs in America, because they understand the formula… low taxes are a ticket to economic growth and innovation,” he said. “In order to reduce these taxes, you have to reduce government.”

Strickland launched his television ad campaign attacking Kasich first for voting for the NAFTA free trade pact as a member of Congress, then making millions at Lehman Brothers, the investment firm whose collapse in 2008 triggered the financial crisis. Together these signal that Kasich can't understand the eneds of struggling Ohians, the ad said. That theme has persisted throughout the campaign.

Kasich calls the campaign on his Lehman record a “diversionary tactic” in comments to reporters after the rally. “When you have lost 400,000 jobs, you want to change the subject, and I’m not going there.”