Why Congress may yet pass pandemic help for Americans

Encouraging noises are coming from Washington about a pandemic relief deal before Christmas – which means that political reality is sinking in. 

Amid a nationwide surge – with a record 4 million new cases in November alone – important measures to help Americans cope have already expired or will be expiring at the end of the year. The economic recovery has stalled, with November reporting the lowest number of new jobs since the spring and the country still 9 million jobs short since March. Meanwhile, states are readying for vaccine distribution, which is underfunded.

Just do something, say the overwhelming majority of Americans, according to polls.

Therefore, a deal now is better than a deal later – even if it is limited in size and duration, says G. William Hoagland, senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington. “Anything is better at this stage, to the extent that it is money that can be gotten out quickly, particularly if the money is for vaccine distribution,” says Mr. Hoagland. Democrats are likely to be disappointed, but they can take “another bite at the apple” next year, he says.

Congress is coming late to a compromise, as it often does until faced with a deadline. At the end of the year, pandemic-related federal unemployment insurance for nearly 12 million Americans and protection from eviction and from student loan payments will expire. The Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses has already lapsed, as has the extra weekly $600 benefit for some 30 million jobless Americans.

“Both from an economic and a health perspective, and those two are intertwined, the stalling with the stimulus is really creating hardship,” says Jennifer Kates, a senior vice president at the Kaiser Family Foundation.

At a minimum, she says, Congress needs to extend unemployment insurance, support paid family leave, and provide funding for schools to cope with the pandemic. Vaccine distribution is also high on her “must do” list. States have only gotten $200 million for that so far, she says, but she’s pleased that both parties agree that billions of dollars more are needed.

Politically, both sides appear to be moving. Like the cubist painting “Nude Descending a Staircase, No. 2,” Democrats keep stepping downward in their dollar demands. In May, House Democrats passed the $3 trillion Heroes Act, which went nowhere. In October, they passed a second version, at $2.2 trillion. Now Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer are below $1 trillion, embracing a $908 billion deal put forward by a bipartisan, bicameral group of senators and House members this week. 

“Most Democrats think that bigger and later is better. I think it’s a false choice. I think we should take whatever we can get and come back the very next day, reintroduce what we want, and say we’re going to get anything to people that will help them,” says Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster. “To pass nothing hurts Democrats and Republicans. It hurts everyone in Congress. Eighty percent of voters want this.”

Indeed, Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told reporters on Friday that she’s now willing to go for a narrower package because Joe Biden will be taking office, allowing Democrats another chance at relief, and because a vaccine is on the way.

For Republicans, the main sticking point is aid to state and local governments, which they see as a “bailout” to poorly managed states, says David Winston, a Republican pollster and strategist.

“Their attitude is ‘keep it to COVID,’” he says. “It’s not an argument over money,” he adds, though Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky has backed a GOP package of about $500 billion, with his stipulation that employers get liability protection from pandemic-related lawsuits.

On Thursday, Speaker Pelosi, of California, and Majority Leader McConnell spoke by phone about funding, with Senator McConnell telling reporters that it would likely be added to a must-pass $1.4 trillion spending bill to fund the federal government when it runs out of money on Dec. 11. He was noncommittal about this week’s proposed bipartisan plan, spearheaded by Sens. Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, and Joe Manchin, Democrat of West Virginia.

That plan includes additional unemployment insurance, new funding for the Paycheck Protection Program for small-business loans, direct aid for schools, and $16 billion for vaccine development, distribution, and virus testing and tracing. It also provides $35 billion for health care providers, such as hospitals, and assists with student loan forgiveness, rental housing, and child care. The provisions would run through March, including $160 billion for state and local governments – a significant retreat from the $1 trillion Democrats wanted last spring. Senator McConnell would get the liability protection he seeks, but only for the short term.

Where all this will end up is not clear, but the sides are talking and President Donald Trump says he’ll sign an agreement if Congress can put one together. “We’re seeing this kind of gathering of momentum,” Sen. Bill Cassidy, Republican of Louisiana, said.

Republicans “realize that things are getting worse. And that if the economy goes into a recession, it really gets worse,” said Senator Cassidy, who backs the bipartisan proposal. “And for the individuals and their families, I mean, they can’t borrow their way out of this. And they’re really going to get stuck.”