Trump isn’t back in office yet, but is already causing chaos

President-elect Donald Trump is still a month away from returning to office, but he’s showing he’s already firmly back in power over congressional Republicans – and unafraid to throw them into last-minute disarray.

On Wednesday afternoon, Mr. Trump exploded a bipartisan deal to avoid a government shutdown with a declaration on X demanding that Republicans kill the bill and instead pivot to a completely different package that didn’t include side deals aimed at winning over the Democratic votes needed for it to pass. He also demanded an increase in the federal debt ceiling so it won’t happen under his watch – something neither party had been discussing as part of this deal.

“We should pass a streamlined spending bill that doesn’t give Chuck Schumer and the Democrats everything they want,” Mr. Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance said in a joint statement, referring to the Democratic Senate majority leader. “Republicans must GET SMART and TOUGH. If Democrats threaten to shut down the government unless we give them everything they want, then CALL THEIR BLUFF.”

The federal government shuts down on Friday at midnight if Congress doesn’t act, and right now there’s no obvious path forward for congressional leaders for a deal.

Bill wasn’t popular, but would have averted a shutdown

The stopgap spending bill had already drawn flak from Republicans across the political spectrum, who were furious at GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson for agreeing to it. Various unrelated provisions had been attached to the package – including a large pay raise for lawmakers as well as $110 billion in disaster relief, and a change in health policy aimed at cutting out pharmaceutical middlemen to reduce costs. The bill was merely a stopgap measure to fund the government until mid-March, and also included some provisions badly wanted by congressional Republicans, including a one-year extension of the Farm Bill that included significant subsidies for farmers. No one loved the bill, but it looked like it would earn enough bipartisan support to pass before Mr. Trump stepped in.

Mr. Trump and his allies say the pivot is essential to clear the decks for the new administration to hit the ground running. Notably, they want to avoid pressure to raise the debt limit in mid-2025, when Democrats could try to use the issue as an opportunity to gain leverage against the Republican agenda.

But his latest move suggests a return to the level of legislative mayhem that was a hallmark of Mr. Trump’s first term in office.

Mr. Trump’s first term in office was pockmarked with stretches like this. He would often pay scant attention to what was happening on Capitol Hill and then decide at the last minute he wasn’t happy with the product, throwing negotiations into chaos and sometimes scuttling major legislation. Six years ago this week, in late December 2018, Mr. Trump suddenly refused to accept a bipartisan appropriations bill that had unanimously passed the GOP-controlled Senate because it didn’t include money he wanted to build his wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. The ensuing government shutdown lasted 35 days – the longest in U.S. history. He’s scuttled other bipartisan deals even since he left office, killing a bill President Biden had negotiated with Senate Republicans to crack down on border crossings earlier this year.

Republicans will have significantly less margin for error in the next Congress than they did when Mr. Trump first won office. They will have just a 220-215 seat majority in the House, meaning they can afford to lose just two votes on any major legislation and still pass a bill if they don’t have any Democratic support.

The current upheaval threatens not to just force a government shutdown on the eve of a new Congress, but could potentially cost Mr. Johnson his speakership. He can only afford to lose a handful of GOP votes if he wants to keep his job when Congress reconvenes in a few weeks on Jan. 3, and the deal he presented so enraged some of his members that there’s no guarantee they’ll all back him – especially if the president-elect decides not to publicly support him. Right now, Mr. Trump sounds none too pleased.

The growing role of Elon Musk

There’s a new X factor to the coming administration – and it involves X’s multibillionaire owner. Mr. Trump’s demand to kill the deal came after Elon Musk, his campaign megadonor and new adviser on government efficiency, spent the day railing against the bill and warning lawmakers that they’d face primary challengers if they backed it. Mr. Musk took a victory lap when the bill collapsed, posting: “Your elected representatives have heard you and now the terrible bill is dead. The voice of the people has triumphed!”

Democrats don’t sound keen to help Republicans bail themselves out.

“House Republicans have been ordered to shut down the government. And hurt the working class Americans they claim to support,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries posted on X Wednesday afternoon. “You break the bipartisan agreement, you own the consequences that follow.”

“A deal is a deal. Republicans should keep their word,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jeanne-Pierre said in a Wednesday evening statement.

Mr. Trump and Vance finished their own bombshell statement with an all-caps promise: “THIS CHAOS WOULD NOT BE HAPPENING IF WE HAD A REAL PRESIDENT. WE WILL IN 32 DAYS!”

But if not for Mr. Trump, the chaos would likely have blown over. Instead, it’s arrived – just in time for the holidays, and one month ahead of schedule.