Can immigration reform pass? Five senators to watch.

Immigration reform will pass the Senate before the Fourth of July, Senate majority leader Harry Reid (D) of Nevada has vowed. Here are five key senators (or groups of senators) that will be pivotal during the two weeks of debate.

3. Four red-state Democrats

J. Scott Applewhite/AP/File
Sen. Mark Begich (D) of Alaska speaks on Capitol Hill in Washington earlier this year as Sen. Mark Pryor (D) of Arkansas listens.

While Republican struggles with the politics of immigration reform are front and center in the Senate debate, a quartet of Democrats from conservative states face similar challenges. Sens. Mark Begich (D) of Alaska, Kay Hagan (D) of North Carolina, Mary Landrieu (D) of Louisiana, and Mark Pryor (D) of Arkansas will all have to weigh a tough immigration vote with one eye toward their reelection campaigns in 2014.   

If Democrats are going to hold their Senate majority, they’re going to need some of this foursome to survive. 

Typically, vulnerable senators either defy their party’s wishes or are given a pass by political leadership to vote against the party line on tough votes. But the need to run up the vote total in the Senate means every vote is precious. 

This group of senators has, in general, shown a willingness to buck the party on key priorities. Both Senators Begich and Pryor voted against an expansion of background checks for firearm purchases earlier this year. Pryor and Senator Hagan were two of five Democratic senators who helped Republicans fight off the DREAM Act, which would have provided a path to citizenship for some young undocumented immigrants two years ago. 

That doesn’t suggest the group is set to defy their party on immigration, necessarily. 

The quartet isn’t averse to taking a tough vote for the team: all four voted for President Obama’s signature health-care law despite the potential political consequences. 

And just like on health care, it may be up to Mr. Obama to keep the red state Democrats – including those not up for reelection this cycle – in the fold. 

“President Obama has one job,” Republican strategist Ana Navarro told BuzzFeed. “Making sure the Red State Democrats are voting yes.” 

Every Democrat lost is one more Republican that needs to be wooed, making the red-state Democrats a key voting bloc.

3 of 5

Dear Reader,

About a year ago, I happened upon this statement about the Monitor in the Harvard Business Review – under the charming heading of “do things that don’t interest you”:

“Many things that end up” being meaningful, writes social scientist Joseph Grenny, “have come from conference workshops, articles, or online videos that began as a chore and ended with an insight. My work in Kenya, for example, was heavily influenced by a Christian Science Monitor article I had forced myself to read 10 years earlier. Sometimes, we call things ‘boring’ simply because they lie outside the box we are currently in.”

If you were to come up with a punchline to a joke about the Monitor, that would probably be it. We’re seen as being global, fair, insightful, and perhaps a bit too earnest. We’re the bran muffin of journalism.

But you know what? We change lives. And I’m going to argue that we change lives precisely because we force open that too-small box that most human beings think they live in.

The Monitor is a peculiar little publication that’s hard for the world to figure out. We’re run by a church, but we’re not only for church members and we’re not about converting people. We’re known as being fair even as the world becomes as polarized as at any time since the newspaper’s founding in 1908.

We have a mission beyond circulation, we want to bridge divides. We’re about kicking down the door of thought everywhere and saying, “You are bigger and more capable than you realize. And we can prove it.”

If you’re looking for bran muffin journalism, you can subscribe to the Monitor for $15. You’ll get the Monitor Weekly magazine, the Monitor Daily email, and unlimited access to CSMonitor.com.

You've read  of  free articles. Subscribe to continue.