Can immigration reform pass? Five senators to watch.

Immigration reform will pass the Senate before the Fourth of July, Senate majority leader Harry Reid (D) of Nevada has vowed. Here are five key senators (or groups of senators) that will be pivotal during the two weeks of debate.

5. Rand Paul (R) of Kentucky

Jacquelyn Martin/AP
Sen. Rand Paul (R) of Kentucky speaks at a forum on immigration organized by the Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles and the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference Wednesday in Washington.

Senator Paul is a bit of an immigration wild card. 

Paul has gone to great lengths to say he wants immigration reform to pass, including speeches to two Hispanic groups touting the need for reform that includes a pathway to legal status for the nation’s undocumented immigrants. 

At the same time, the 2016 presidential contender has pinned his support for the Senate bill on two enormous changes: requiring the Congress to certify that the border is secure before the undocumented can obtain permanent legal status and stripping out a provision requiring photographs to be used to help verify employment authorization at the workplace. 

Paul’s libertarian-minded philosophy is more amenable to many of the policy changes in immigration reform than many of his Senate colleagues. However, Paul’s usual Senate allies and fellow conservative up-and-comers, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) of Texas and Sen. Mike Lee (R) of Utah, are vociferously opposed to the bill, as are a host of deeply conservative activist groups that typically back the junior Kentucky senator. 

That leaves Paul in an intriguing position.

If he opposes the bill, perhaps over the fact the Senate is unlikely to approve his two requirements, it would leave Rubio out on a limb among rising conservative Senate stars (and present the opportunity for fireworks in a future GOP presidential primary).

If he votes for the bill, Paul would draw a bright line between himself and some of his staunchest allies while proving he’s not just talking about broadening the GOP’s appeal to minority groups.

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