Kasich should drop out now! (Except maybe he shouldn't.)
Suddenly all these Republican elite people are yelling at John Kasich to get out of the presidential race. Mitt Romney. Jeb Bush. Lindsey Graham. Them to Governor Kasich: “You’re in the way! Clear the lane for Ted Cruz! Otherwise Donald Trump will win the nomination! And if that happens it might be your fault.”
OK that might be a bit of an exaggeration, but that’s probably how the Ohio governor sees the rhetoric coming his way. Mr. Romney and rest of the #NeverTrump crowd appear to have finally coalesced around one candidate, and it’s Texas Senator Cruz. They may be closer to Kasich ideologically; they may dislike and even distrust the independent-minded Cruz; some may even harbor their own secret nomination ambitions. But Cruz is closest to Trump in delegates and has a slim chance of catching the billionaire real estate mogul under certain perfect conditions. And one of these conditions is a head-to-head Cruz versus Trump match-up.
“If you’re someone who is uneasy with the front-runner, right now there’s really only one candidate, if you’re just looking at the numbers objectively. Ted Cruz is the only one who’s got a chance other than Donald Trump to win the nomination,” said Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a presidential derby drop-out, on Wednesday. “Statistically my friend Gov. Kasich cannot.”
This may be correct. It’s logical to assume that the non-Trump vote will boost one candidate more than two, so the person now in third place should exit. Kasich is not going to approach Trump in delegates. His only shot at the nomination is via a contested GOP convention.
And yet....
It’s easy to sympathize with Kasich’s position. He’s worked his whole life for this moment, climbing politics rung by arduous rung, and at the moment he is as close to the top as he is ever going to get, the summit so near he can see it, he’s supposed to just stop?
Here’s a summary of what Kasich might argue if he sat down with Romney for lunch:
First off, the GOP establishment is asking me to pay the price for its own previous mistakes. The disparate alliance of lawmakers, donors, lobbyists, and media figures that make up the Republican elite had months to choose a candidate to rally around. They dithered. Now they’re desperate. Time for Kasich to go!
Second, Cruz is no more likely to catch Trump than I am. Practically speaking, the Texas senator’s chance of winning the nomination outright is zero. His chances of overtaking Trump in delegates are close to zero as well. He is a stand-in for GOP hopes of a contested convention, at which Trump will somehow be defeated even though he’ll enter with a delegate plurality.
And third, if you’re looking for someone to rally around at a chaotic open convention, why not me? I’m talking about hugs and bringing people together. Right now the other two guys are engaged in an ugly spat about their wives. Sure, I barely campaigned in the South, and I tried to block Cruz in Utah. But now the electoral map is moving to North and East to places where I do better.
Did you catch Thursday’s Franklin & Marshall College poll of Pennsylvania, by the way? I’m virtually tied with Trump, 30 to 33 percent.
I had 3 percent in that same poll in January.
“I drop out, Donald Trump is absolutely going to be the nominee. I don’t believe that Senator Cruz can come to the East and win,” said Kasich during an (actual) appearance on Wednesday.
In the end, Kasich might bow to the pressure, particularly if he underperforms in the Wisconsin primary next week. But it’s not inconceivable that he’ll stay in all the way to the end, unmoved by what he might judge the self-serving arguments of others.
After all, if the Republican convention is contested, nobody really knows what could happen. It’s unlikely that delegates would turn to Kasich – but it’s been an election cycle when the unlikely has become the probable. So why not give it a shot?
