His own party calls him traitor. Can Japan’s new PM rebuild trust in politics?

Economic stagnation and a slew of political scandals have tanked the reputation of Japan’s long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Now its members must put their faith in a “party traitor” to build back trust.

Former Defense Minister Ishiba Shigeru officially took office as prime minister on Tuesday, days after the LDP, which holds a parliament majority, elected him party leader. The internal party election was one of the most competitive in recent history, and Mr. Ishiba’s narrow victory came as a surprise. 

For decades, fellow lawmakers have held Mr. Ishiba in low regard due to his vocal criticism of LDP colleagues. A stint with an opposing party in the 1990s earned him the “traitor” label. Even now, some wonder if his fraught relationships with LDP heavyweights will weaken the incoming administration. But among smaller party chapters and the general public, Mr. Ishiba’s perceived integrity, vast government experience, and focus on rural revitalization have made him extremely popular.

“Mr. Ishiba is a steady hand” for the party and Japan, says Tamura Shigenobu, a Tokyo-based political analyst and former LDP staffer.

The new prime minister has announced plans to hold snap elections for the lower house of parliament on Oct. 27 – a year earlier than required by law – in what many view as an effort to capitalize on his popularity and secure the LDP’s majority.

“I would like our administration to trust the public and win public confidence,” said Mr. Ishiba shortly after he was sworn in. 

Campaigning amid scandal

Since last November, a few party factions have been accused of failing to report revenue from fundraising parties and amassing millions of dollars in slush funds. The scandal led to the arrest of one LDP lower house member and the indictment of several lawmakers. Four cabinet members resigned, and this August, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio announced that he too would step down.

Cabinet approval ratings, which were above 50% when Mr. Kishida took over, have hovered between 20% and 28% since the scandal erupted, according to Kyodo News polls.

It’s an old pattern, says Yamaguchi Jiro, political science professor at Hosei University in Tokyo.

“The LDP has long-standing problems of money influencing politics,” he explains. “When they face a barrage of criticism … they select a leader who looks relatively decent and get over the crisis.”

Hiro Komae/AP

A pedestrian takes a copy of an extra edition of the Yomiuri newspaper reporting on Ishiba Shigeru becoming the winner of the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election, on Sept. 27, 2024, in Tokyo.

The party spent weeks on its internal leadership election, which critics describe as a PR fest. The general public doesn’t vote, and the campaigns receive lots of friendly media attention. Candidates did not hold deep discussions on issues like rising living costs or Japan’s aging population. 

Mr. Ishiba did, however, touch on foreign policy, vowing to “protect Japan” amid North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs and China’s growing assertiveness in the region. “Today’s Ukraine could be tomorrow’s Asia,” he said during the campaign, floating an idea to create Asia’s version of NATO. 

“His NATO idea would definitely ruffle some feathers” in Washington and parts of Asia, says Jeff Kingston, director of Asian studies at Temple University in Tokyo, but it probably won’t matter much in this month’s election. Voters care far more about the economy.

Economic concerns and elections

One of the biggest problems Japan has to grapple with, says Mr. Kingston, “is to clean up the mess left behind by Abenomics,” the late premier Abe Shinzo’s signature economic strategy. 

Business communities have, in general, loved the low corporate taxes, aggressive government spending, and other market-friendly policies that come with Abenomics. But not everyone is seeing the wealth. Today, many Japanese families are struggling to make ends meet as inflation and consumption tax hikes drive up costs of living, while wages stay the same.

Mr. Ishiba, a rare critic of Mr. Abe and longtime advocate for fiscal discipline, said during his campaign that he saw “room to increase” taxes on corporations. This sparked a minor stock market panic Monday – the first trading day after Mr. Ishiba defeated an Abenomics evangelist in the LDP leadership race. The Nikkei falling nearly 5%, as investors sold off stocks in manufacturing and tourism companies.

The new prime minister’s pick for finance minister – Abe administration veteran Kato Katsunobu – should help smooth things out. 

During Mr. Kato’s own failed campaign for LDP leader, the former health minister promised to use Abenomics to double household income. His appointment today suggests that Mr. Ishiba is looking to reassure investors, and take a more balanced approach to economic growth, though the cabinet has yet to release a detailed plan for Japan’s economy.

Whatever the Ishiba administration comes up with, analysts expect the LDP to defend its majority in parliament. Not only is Japan’s opposition woefully fragmented, but Mr. Ishiba is building on a strong base of rural support, including in western Japan’s Tottori prefecture, where his constituency is located.

Okuda Satoshi, who manages the Chamber of Commerce in Tottori’s Yazu town, says Mr. Ishiba has always fought on behalf of Japan’s outer regions.

“Mr. Ishiba has earned the respect and the trust of local residents,” Mr. Okuda says. “He is clean and acts on his beliefs.”