Most experts see independence as unlikely anytime soon.
India fears giving up Kashmir could inspire separatist movements in other regions and embolden Pakistan to see Islamic terrorism as effective. Both India and Pakistan fear loss of water rights. Also working against the separatists are their wide territorial claims. "Kashmir" includes not just the Muslim-dominated valley for the separatists, but the Hindu-majority region of Jammu, the Buddhist region of Ladakh, and the northern territories of Pakistan that do not identify with Kashmir.
India and Pakistan have come close to a plan that would grant autonomy to parts of Kashmir on both sides of the Line of Control. The two countries resumed talks in late March. Some separatists are prepared to enter into an autonomy deal as long as it does not close off future negotiations for independence.
Many Indian officials still hope that with a combination of better policing and economic development Kashmiris would give up their struggle.
