Bangladesh: Boycott and strain on democracy amid Hasina reelection

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has swept to power for a fourth consecutive term in Bangladesh, following an election on Jan. 7 that was boycotted by opposition parties and marked by violent protests and international scrutiny.

Her Awami League party won 222 seats out of 299, according to the Election Commission, cementing a majority in Parliament and extending her 15-year rule that has made Ms. Hasina one of the most defining and divisive leaders in the nation’s history.

Ms. Hasina’s victory, widely seen as inevitable, came amid low voter turnout at 41.8% in a severely contentious climate that saw opposition members jailed ahead of the polls. Analysts say the clampdown on political foes and stifling of dissent puts Bangladesh’s democracy in a fragile position, risks triggering political turmoil and may test some of its diplomatic ties.

Campaigning was rife with violence and the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party and its allies boycotted the vote, saying that Ms. Hasina’s government could not oversee free and fair polls.

“This is not a story of a thumping, resounding reaction from the people. There is a question mark in the public’s mind about this election, so the result that has come will face this taint,” said Avinash Paliwal, who specializes in South Asia relations at London’s SOAS University.

The vote also spotlighted a troublesome electoral record, being the third in the last 15 years to be dogged by credibility concerns. The previous two votes were widely seen as flawed with allegations of vote-rigging, which authorities denied, and another opposition boycott. All three elections were held under Ms. Hasina’s rule.

The main opposition party has demanded a fresh election to establish a “legitimate” government.

This is likely “to ratchet up rather than rein in political tensions” and fan further polarization instead of reconciliation, said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center.

The government has defended the polls as open and inclusive, but critics have pointed out that many smaller opposition groups and independent candidates belonged to the ruling party, which left voters with few options.

In a post-election press conference on Jan. 8, Ms. Hasina said Bangladesh had set an example of holding a free, fair, and impartial election.

“It’s not my victory. I think it is a victory of the people,” she declared.

While Ms. Hasina is often credited with presiding over Bangladesh’s impressive growth in recent years, experts say its economy is now sputtering. Foreign exchange reserves have dwindled to less than three months’ worth of imports, the price of groceries has surged, and a wave of labor protests from the country’s prized garment industry has highlighted dissatisfaction with the government.

Experts say economic discontent is widespread in Bangladesh, which means Ms. Hasina’s handling of the economy will be key, especially to regain legitimacy among disenchanted voters who skipped the polls.

The political tumult surrounding the election also risks straining Bangladesh’s ties with the United States, the biggest buyer of its garment exports. Relations have been tense for months, especially after Washington vowed to impose visa restrictions on anyone disrupting the electoral process. Ms. Hasina accused the U.S. of trying to plot her ouster.

Pierre Prakash, Asia director at the International Crisis Group, said the U.S. made Bangladesh a showcase of the Biden administration’s values-based foreign policy, which emphasizes human rights and democratic freedoms.

Dhaka is an important trade and strategic partner for Washington in Asia, where it is trying to counter Chinese influence, but the Biden administration has been vocal about its concerns surrounding the election.

“We’ll have to see how the U.S. behaves. There could be sanctions on the horizon, but we don’t know for sure,” Mr. Prakash said, adding that these could target individuals or apply more broadly to a sector, which could pinch citizens.

Bangladesh’s regional neighbors are likely to welcome Ms. Hasina’s reelection. Her tough stance on terror, non-aligned foreign policy, and efforts to help Rohingya refugees from neighboring Myanmar – “all of this has made her government, warts and all, fully acceptable to much of the world,” Mr. Kugelman said.

Ms. Hasina has also won support from Russia, which is building a nuclear plant in the country, and maintained ties with the European Union, a major trade partner that analysts say will be watching developments closely.

Her biggest backer remains India, which has invested in several infrastructure projects as it jostles for influence against rival China in the region.

While that’s unlikely to change in the short run, Mr. Paliwal said there is growing anti-India sentiment amid perceptions that New Delhi’s support has enabled Ms. Hasina’s rise and authoritarian turn.

“This narrative is taking root, and New Delhi will be watching because it can’t write off the political problems that are rising within the country,” he said, adding that the low voter turnout was a major blow to the Awami League. “This will reshape the calculus of Hasina’s international allies and adversaries alike in the coming weeks.”

This story was reported by The Associated Press. AP journalist Julhas Alam contributed reporting.