Macron finally picked a prime minister. But can he govern France?
| Paris
On Saturday, thousands of people took to the streets across France in protest of President Emmanuel Macron’s choice of Michel Barnier, former European Union negotiator for Brexit, as his prime minister.
Protesters said the selection of Mr. Barnier, a conservative, doesn’t respect the results of July elections that put the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front, ahead of both Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally and Mr. Macron’s Renaissance bloc.
Why We Wrote This
The end of the Olympics also closed out the feel-good limbo that had frozen French politics. Now President Emmanuel Macron and his newly chosen prime minister will have to figure out how to govern a France that looks on the verge of ungovernability.
But Mr. Barnier could prove an ideal choice for Mr. Macron. He has served as a minister under three presidents – two conservative, one socialist. His pro-European stance could please the left, while his support for stricter immigration controls will help him with conservatives.
“Barnier is a good choice in that he has a proven track record of mediating between conflicting groups,” says Hall Gardner, professor emeritus of political science at the American University of Paris. “The left is saying [to Macron], ‘Now you’ve betrayed us,’ and they see someone from the center-right who doesn’t support their issues. But I think Barnier will make an effort. ... He has a broader vision than just France. He sees the bigger picture.”
Faced with uncertainty over the future of his government, French President Emmanuel Macron has tapped a new prime minister renowned for his experience finding consensus and working across political and ideological divides.
But both men face a long road ahead to find political success and acceptance by French society.
Last Thursday, Mr. Macron named Michel Barnier, a conservative lawmaker and former European Union negotiator for Brexit, as his prime minister, sixty days after calling snap legislative elections that have left the country in political gridlock. Mr. Barnier will look to form his new government in the coming days, ahead of an Oct. 1 deadline to reach a major budget deal that can fend off EU warnings about France’s spiraling public deficit.
Why We Wrote This
The end of the Olympics also closed out the feel-good limbo that had frozen French politics. Now President Emmanuel Macron and his newly chosen prime minister will have to figure out how to govern a France that looks on the verge of ungovernability.
But he is faced with the daunting task of leading a country on the edge of political crisis.
On Saturday, thousands of people took to the streets across the country in protest of Mr. Macron’s choice of Mr. Barnier, who is a member of the conservative Républicains party. Protesters said his selection doesn’t respect the results of July elections that put the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front, ahead of both Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally and Mr. Macron’s Renaissance bloc. The far-left La France Insoumise, the most extreme member of the NFP coalition, has called for Mr. Macron’s ouster in what they say was a “stolen election.”
With France on the brink of being ungovernable, all eyes will be looking to its new prime minister to seek the same sort of compromise and cooperation that he did when negotiating a Brexit deal with the United Kingdom.
“Mr. Barnier is going to have to perform an incredibly difficult balancing act and I’m not sure he is the person to do it, or if the right person even exists, given the current state of parliament,” says Douglas Webber, professor emeritus of political science at the INSEAD business school. “France has found itself in an unprecedented situation where no political party has a majority. And there is no handbook for how we move forward.”
Backed into picking Barnier?
The atmosphere at protests in France this weekend couldn’t have been more different than it was in the country just two months ago. The NFP’s surprise win at the legislative elections on July 7 brought celebrations in the streets and a renewed sense of enthusiasm for the future of France.
“I was so stressed about what was going to happen,” says Marine de Royer, a Paris resident who protested over the weekend. “I remember the absolute relief I felt when we learned that [far-right leader] Jordan Bardella wasn’t going to be prime minister.... But now it feels like the far right has still won.”
There were hopes among the left that Mr. Macron would choose Lucie Castets, a Socialist, as his prime minister, after her name was put forth by the NFP at the end of July. But Mr. Macron is under no constitutional obligation to name a leader from the winning coalition at the legislative elections.
Many observers say he was backed against a wall – particularly by the far-right. The National Rally, along with lawmakers from right and center-right parties, were expected to use a vote of no confidence to block Ms. Castets, as well as other rumored candidates like Bernard Cazeneuve and Xavier Bertrand.
While the NFP could still vote against Mr. Barnier, their weight alone would not be enough to push him out. Meanwhile the far right, which holds the second highest number of seats in parliament, has said they won’t block Mr. Barnier.
That, alongside his list of credentials, made Mr. Barnier an ideal choice for Mr. Macron. He has served as a minister under Presidents Jacques Chirac, François Mitterrand, and Nicolas Sarkozy – two conservative, one socialist. Mr Barnier’s pro-European stance could please the left, while his support for stricter immigration controls will help him with conservatives. In 2016, he headed the EU’s Brexit task force.
“Barnier is a good choice in that he has a proven track record of mediating between conflicting groups,” says Hall Gardner, professor emeritus of political science at the American University of Paris. “The left is saying [to Macron], ‘now you’ve betrayed us’ and they see someone from the center right who doesn’t support their issues. But I think Barnier will make an effort. ... He has a broader vision than just France. He sees the bigger picture.”
“Can Barnier govern?”
While the choice of Mr. Barnier may make sense on paper, it’s of little comfort to French voters, many of whom feel they went to the ballot box this summer for nothing.
“Macron should have chosen someone from the left. We feel betrayed. Why did we vote?” says Cécile Drouet, who protested in Paris on Saturday. “Can Barnier govern? I don’t think so. He lacks the ability to bring the French together and restore confidence in politics.”
Mr. Barnier’s first major challenge will be forming a government that doesn’t immediately collapse. While the NFP won the July elections, they fell short of an absolute majority, leaving France with a hung parliament. Alongside his newly appointed finance minister, Mr. Barnier will have to tackle the budget, which will involve drafting a bill by Oct. 1. Economists advising the government say France needs to cut its public deficit by over €100 billion ($110 billion) in the next seven to 12 years in order to avoid a debt spiral similar to Italy.
France’s new prime minister also has to convince the French people that he has what it takes to unite the country, not divide. Many on the French left worry that the country’s prized social security system is at risk, while others want the retirement age brought down from 64.
While it’s still early days, Mr. Barnier seems to be willing to offer an olive branch to his detractors. On Saturday, he made his first official visit to a public hospital in Paris, to discuss the pressures on healthcare workers and a lack of resources. There, he said that politics existed not to perform miracles, but to promote progress.
“France is in a state of extreme fragility and the level of divides we’re seeing is a real threat to democracy,” says Roger Sue, a professor emeritus of sociology at Université Paris Cité. “As soon as Mr. Barnier forms his government, he’s going to have to answer a lot of questions.”
