Ukraine’s Pokrovsk was about to fall to Russia 2 months ago. It’s hanging on.
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Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
| POKROVSK, Ukraine
Pokrovsk, a strategic military hub in the ferocious Russian-Ukrainian battle for Donetsk, appeared in September to be on the verge of falling. Russian forces were advancing to the city’s south, east, and west, and the local military administration ordered a general evacuation of civilians.
And yet almost two months later, Pokrovsk remains in Ukrainian hands. Nearly 12,000 resilient residents are still trying to make their damaged and emptied city a home, though schools and hospitals are closed, and a general curfew starts at 3 p.m.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onThe story of the grinding Russian-Ukrainian land battle is one of an imbalance of forces and supplies, mostly in Russia’s favor. Yet Ukraine finds ways to defy the odds, at least for a while.
Several factors explain why the city has held on so far, including the more regular delivery of Western aid, says Karolina Hird at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington. Ukrainians also point to the recent arrival of fresh combat units to allow others to rotate out.
But for many in Pokrovsk, the trend lines are clear.
“We are losing territory, that’s it,” says Max, a drone operator making a snack run before rejoining the front-line battle a few miles away. “It’s not big losses all at once,” he explains. “They gain some ground one day and a small settlement the next. But it’s putting the pressure back on Pokrovsk.”
Artillery shelling booms in the distance. Pyramid-shaped anti-tank cement blocks called dragon’s teeth line major streets in preparation for a potential Russian onslaught.
Pokrovsk’s schools and hospitals are closed. A general curfew starts at 3 p.m.
On his way from a quick snack run to rejoin the front-line battle just a few miles away, drone operator Max offers a grim assessment of Ukrainian efforts to stave off steadily advancing Russian forces in the embattled Donetsk region.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onThe story of the grinding Russian-Ukrainian land battle is one of an imbalance of forces and supplies, mostly in Russia’s favor. Yet Ukraine finds ways to defy the odds, at least for a while.
“We are losing territory, that’s it,” says the fatigues-clad soldier, call sign “Roland,” setting down the six-pack of liter bottles of Pepsi he just purchased.
“It’s not big losses all at once,” he explains. “They gain some ground one day and a small settlement the next. But it’s putting the pressure back on Pokrovsk.”
At its peak a vibrant city of 60,000, Pokrovsk is a key railway junction critical to Ukraine’s coal and steel industries and a strategic military hub in the ferocious battle for Donetsk.
In September it appeared on the verge of falling. Russian forces were advancing to the city’s south, east, and west.
The local military administration ordered a general evacuation of civilians. Shops, businesses, and gas stations that had hung on shuttered. A city known for its rose-filled gardens turned increasingly quiet.
And yet almost two months later, Pokrovsk remains in Ukrainian hands, with nearly 12,000 resilient residents still doing their best to make their besieged, damaged, and emptied city a home.
“The pressure will return to Pokrovsk”
Earlier this month the military administration ordered the city “closed,” aiming among other things to discourage residents who did evacuate from returning. But officials also announced that heating centers would be opened across the city, signaling a plan is in place to get Pokrovsk through the winter.
“Of course we encourage people to evacuate, but we know some will stay. So we will be here to perform our duty as long as we possibly can,” says Vasyl Rudyi, chief of Pokrovsk’s last operating fire station.
Noting that the intensity of the nearby fighting and of drone and missile attacks on the city lessened after September, Mr. Rudyi says he doesn’t expect the relative calm to continue.
“The Russians turned their attention to ... other towns south of here,” he says, “but after their recent advances around us, I expect the pressure will return to Pokrovsk.”
The amiable fire chief, who coos to a station dog named Vasia, is not alone in his pessimism.
In Washington, U.S. officials and military analysts paint a mostly discouraging picture of Ukraine’s war against invading Russian forces.
After 2023’s counteroffensive against Russian positions in occupied Ukraine failed, the war was widely judged a stalemate. But that characterization is no longer accurate, some experts say, as Russia has in recent months ground its way to significant territorial gains, advancing its stated goal of taking all of Donetsk.
According to the Ukrainian website Deep State, Russia seized nearly 200 square miles of Ukrainian territory, much of that in Donetsk, in October alone.
U.S. officials and military experts say a growing problem for the Ukrainian military is a dwindling pool of fresh recruits – a numerical disadvantage that has only been deepened by the recent arrival on Russia’s side of an estimated 12,000 North Korean soldiers.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed last week that Ukrainian forces had engaged North Korean troops in Russia’s Kursk border region. He said North Korea’s entry into the war constituted a “dangerous escalation.”
Western aid and new combat units
In that context, Pokrovsk’s ability to hold on against the September onslaught offers something of a glimmer.
“Attacks on Pokrovsk stalled out over recent weeks as Russian forces got stuck and the Ukrainians improved their response to some degree,” says Karolina Hird, Russia team deputy lead at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington.
“Russians have advanced amid the heavy fighting for towns and settlements to the south,” she adds, “but that has exhausted those troops that are meant to be taking Pokrovsk.”
Several factors explain why Pokrovsk has held on so far, she says.
Promised Western aid has started to arrive more regularly, allowing the Ukrainians to reduce Russia’s advantage in artillery shells and other armaments. Whereas Russia’s advantage over the summer and into September in artillery firing was around 7-to-1, Ms. Hird says, that has recently been reduced to 2-to-1.
Confirmed Ukrainian attacks on arms depots inside Russia have contributed. She also cites a Russian redirection of assets from Donetsk to areas of Kursk held by Ukrainians.
The recent arrival of new combat units also buoyed Ukrainian defenses, some say.
“The most important factor in holding the Russians back is that we were supplied with fresh units to reinforce us here while allowing some units to be rotated out,” says Serhii Tsekhovskyi, spokesperson for the 59th Motorized Brigade. “When the Russians realized they would not be able to take Pokrovsk directly,” he adds, “they focused instead on areas to the south. And they turned their attention to other regions.”
That does not mean Pokrovsk is in the clear, he insists.
“Even with the improvement in conditions, we can say the risks to civilians still in the city are growing every day,” he says. “We understand that some people might want to stay no matter what,” he adds, “but we try to tell them that if the aggressor does arrive, that is the most dangerous time to decide it’s time to leave.”
“It’s our duty to stay here”
At the Pokrovsk fire station, a crew of 82 stands ready with pump and ladder trucks – and hydraulic “pillows” that can lift up to 40 tons of concrete to assist in freeing trapped bombing victims.
Station chief Rudyi says firefighting’s usual risks are compounded in Pokrovsk by Russian strategies aimed at decimating emergency service providers. Russian drones regularly target firefighters answering routine calls, including a close friend who was killed responding to a grass fire in an industrial area in September, he says.
Missile and bomb attacks on civilian buildings are often carried out with what is called a “double tap,” he adds. A building is struck, and then a second strike lands 10 or 15 minutes later when the Russians know rescue services will be on the scene.
Pokrovsk no longer has a functioning hospital, so city residents rely on the closest medical emergency response teams stationed 12 miles away in the safer city of Dobropillia.
“Things have quieted down recently; it’s not as ‘hot’ as it was in September,” says Olha Klivkina, who manages a team of five emergency response crews and five vehicles from a Dobropillia hospital. “But so many of the people who have stayed in Pokrovsk and the small villages around it are the most fragile population, the elderly and the sick,” she adds, “so we feel strongly that it’s our duty to stay here and serve them.”
At a sidewalk market in Pokrovsk just feet from the newly installed dragon’s teeth, resident Mykola, who offers only his first name, sighs before deeming evacuation versus staying put “a complicated question.”
On the one hand, “We know that here there is danger; for sure life gets harder every day,” he says, picking leaves out of the bins of red and green tomatoes he’s hoping to sell to augment a state pension he describes as “almost nothing.”
But he says the number of neighbors he’s seen return after evacuating tells him there are also advantages to remaining in Pokrovsk, at least until Russian troops are on the doorstep.
“Here we have our houses and our gardens that we can eat from to stay alive,” he says. “That’s enough to keep me here until the last moment.”
Oleksandr Naselenko supported reporting for this story.
