Netanyahu has high hopes of Trump. Might he be mistaken?

“The president is on the line, sir.” To which Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could have been forgiven for wondering, as the call was put through: Which president?

For within the space of a couple of days last week, he spoke not only to U.S. President Joe Biden but also to the man who preceded him in office and now hopes to return, Donald Trump.

Headlines worldwide highlighted Mr. Biden’s call. He urged Mr. Netanyahu to capitalize on the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar by negotiating a cease-fire and hostage release in Gaza.

But it was Mr. Trump’s very different message that will likely weigh more heavily on Mr. Netanyahu’s mind as he decides when, and whether, to act on Mr. Biden’s appeal.

And this “Trump factor” makes it vanishingly unlikely that he will move before America votes Nov. 5.

There is an important caveat, potentially more encouraging to those in the Middle East, in Washington, and around the world who are desperate to see negotiations and de-escalation in Gaza.

It is that no matter who wins the U.S. election, Mr. Netanyahu may well face renewed pressure from Washington to “take the win” – as Biden administration officials have been urging – and join in that process.

For now, however, the Israeli prime minister is clearly minded to pay less attention to Mr. Biden than to Mr. Trump.

The immediate reason is that the former president has been echoing the Israeli leader’s own words on the campaign trail.

After Israel killed the Hamas leader, Mr. Trump criticized President Biden’s call for Mr. Netanyahu to move toward a cease-fire. “Biden is trying to hold him back,” he said. “And he should probably be doing the opposite actually.”

On the phone call last week, Mr. Trump went further on another Mideast front where the Biden administration has been urging Israeli caution: the expected military response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack early this month.

“Just do what you have to do,” Mr. Trump told Mr. Netanyahu.

But the roots of Mr. Netanyahu’s preference for Mr. Trump over President Biden – and over the Democratic Party candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris – run deeper.

J. Scott Applewhite/AP/File

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares to speak to a joint meeting of Congress to seek support for Israel's fight against Hamas and other adversaries, at the Capitol in Washington, July 24, 2024.

Breaking with the bipartisan approach to U.S. politics that all previous Israeli leaders adopted, Mr. Netanyahu has in recent years openly aligned himself with the Republican Party.

Twice he has done a political end run around a Democratic president by accepting a Republican invitation to address Congress to argue against administration policy.

In 2015, he attacked President Barack Obama for pursuing a nuclear deal with Iran.

Earlier this year, Mr. Netanyahu turned his back on President Biden’s efforts to promote a hostage-release deal and to persuade him to engage with a “day after” plan for Gaza that would lead to an eventual two-state peace with the Palestinians.

During Mr. Trump’s tenure as president, he and the Israeli leader were close allies, a partnership buttressed by Mr. Netanyahu’s personal ties with Mr. Trump’s son-in-law and Mideast envoy, Jared Kushner.

They jointly produced a diplomatic breakthrough, dubbed the Abraham Accords, normalizing Israel’s ties with historically hostile Gulf Arab states without requiring Mr. Netanyahu to make any commitment to a future Palestinian state.

The Trump administration also broke with longtime U.S. policy by formally endorsing Israeli gains from the 1967 Six-Day War. Washington recognized Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights from Syria, and its declaration of the disputed city of Jerusalem as its capital.

Given Vice President Harris’ full-blown support for a two-state peace deal and her outspoken concern over the level of civilian casualties in Gaza, there is no doubt Mr. Netanyahu would far prefer to see Mr. Trump win the U.S. election.

So why, then, the caveat? Why might a second Trump administration also exert pressure to embrace a day-after deal not unlike the one Mr. Biden has been working so hard to advance?

One key reason is the very quality in Mr. Trump that benefited Mr. Netanyahu the first time around: his intensely personal, if often mercurial, approach to political relationships.

Mr. Netanyahu, himself, experienced the full effects after the 2020 U.S. election.

Mr. Trump fumed over what he saw as the Israeli leader’s betrayal when Mr. Netanyahu ignored claims the election had been “stolen” and congratulated Mr. Biden on his victory.

The chill thawed only recently, when Mr. Netanyahu made a concerted effort to repair their relationship.

But there’s another reason that the Biden day-after plan could remain on the table no matter who wins next month.

It’s that Mr. Trump has a closer, unfrayed relationship with another Mideast leader, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Saudi Arabia, the most influential of the Arab states in the region, decided not to join the Abraham Accords.

Yet the crown prince has been a central player in Mr. Biden’s postwar plan for Gaza, hoping to secure a formal U.S. defense guarantee, and an Israeli commitment to the idea of a two-state peace, in return for taking the financial and political lead in Gaza’s reconstruction and future security.

That’s a pitch the prince will likely make to Mr. Trump, too, if he wins.