Why Biden and the Democrats need a deal – now

The moment of truth is here for both President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party. 

If congressional Democrats can pass both a long-promised, bipartisan infrastructure bill and sweeping social spending legislation – no small task – President Biden and the Democrats will live politically to fight another day. If the effort fails, the Biden presidency will have been dealt a near-fatal blow.

Mr. Biden himself reportedly said as much to House Democrats at the Capitol Thursday morning, telling lawmakers: “I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that the House and Senate majorities and my presidency will be determined by what happens in the next week.” 

At time of writing, the president’s prospects were shaky. The leading House Democratic progressive, Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington, told reporters Thursday there were “too many no votes” to pass the infrastructure bill, but said she was committed to working through the weekend. Many House progressives are withholding a “yes” vote on infrastructure as leverage to secure support for their priorities in the Build Back Better bill. They want a chance to read through the 1,500+ pages of the just-released legislative text and say they need a commitment that all 50 Democratic senators will back it.

But even if Mr. Biden gains passage of both bills, his work is far from finished. Polls show Americans are more focused on immediate kitchen-table concerns, from inflation and supply-chain backups to jobs and the pandemic. And with public support for Mr. Biden in steady decline, now barely above 40%, he and his party must demonstrate an ability to govern. 

“No one got everything they wanted, including me, but that’s what compromise is.” Mr. Biden said Thursday at the White House, before flying to Europe for major multinational forums on the global economy and climate change. “That’s consensus, and that’s what I ran on.”

The national political implications of the Biden agenda’s fate are profound. If Democrats come up empty, that failure could help tip the close Virginia governor’s race to the Republican next Tuesday – a major blow to Democrats in a state that Mr. Biden won by 10 percentage points last year. Perceptions of Democratic incompetence could also fuel a Republican wave in next year’s midterms, making it all the more difficult for Democrats to defend their narrow control of both houses of Congress.

But if Democrats pass both bills, they can still claim a significant victory in expanding the social safety net, even if temporarily, as many of the provisions expire after a time. If Mr. Biden had hoped to be the second coming of Franklin Roosevelt or Lyndon Johnson, authors of the New Deal and Great Society, respectively, his narrow majorities in Congress have made that well nigh impossible.

The latest version of Build Back Better contains $1.75 trillion in new spending, including: a one-year extension of the child tax credit; free preschool for all three- and four-year-olds; expanded home health care for older and disabled Americans; clean energy incentives; enhancements to the Affordable Care Act; and a 15% corporate minimum tax and surtax on multimillionaires and billionaires.

Left out were a provision to negotiate lower prescription drug prices, dental and vision coverage in Medicare, a corporate tax increase, and free community college. 

The White House has also touted its $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, which passed the Senate in August with support from 19 Republicans. It signals a once-in-a-generation investment that will update existing roads, bridges, airports, and pipes while adding new infrastructure needed for the 21st century, such as rural Internet and a network of electric vehicle charging systems. It includes $65 billion for Amtrak, $65 billion for clean energy transmission, and $55 billion for clean drinking water. 

And the White House has emphasized numerous provisions to create millions of new, well-paying jobs and support existing workers through union protections, better wages, and “made in America” provisions. 

A key challenge for Democrats is convincing voters that their bipartisan infrastructure legislation and the Build Back Better Act will substantially improve their lives, when Americans have more pressing concerns. 

A CBS poll earlier this month indicated that only 37% of people believe that Mr. Biden is focusing on the issues they care a lot about, while nearly a third said the Democrats were focusing on issues they don’t care about at all. Meanwhile, 60% said the Biden administration wasn’t focusing enough on inflation, and two-thirds cited U.S. government policy as a key driver of higher prices. 

While a little over half said they approved of the Build Back Better plan, only 36% said they thought it would help them and their families, while a third thought it would hurt them.

The White House knows it’s under pressure on inflation. In a press release touting the Build Back Better Framework, it notably also promised to “reduce price pressures.” And Thursday morning, Mr. Biden opened his East Room remarks by noting that 17 Nobel-winning economists said his plan will “lower the inflationary pressure on the economy.”

Republicans have been hammering hard on inflation, which they equate to a “tax” on middle-class Americans, contrary to the spirit of Mr. Biden’s promise that they would not pay a penny more in tax as a result of the Build Back Better plan.

North Dakota GOP Rep. Kelly Armstrong says the state’s two utilities have already advised residents to expect higher energy costs this winter.

“When you say you’re not taxing anybody who makes under $400,000, people who are paying $200 more to keep their home warm in North Dakota in the winter will disagree with you,” said Representative Armstrong earlier this week. 

The price of meats, poultry, fish, and eggs was up more than 10% in September compared with 2020, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists say that’s due at least in part to supply chain issues related to the pandemic, but Republicans are placing the blame squarely at the feet of Democrats.

In floor remarks today, Senate GOP whip John Thune accused Democrats of fueling inflation by “dumping a lot of unnecessary government money into the economy” earlier this year. And now, he added, “they’re preparing to make things worse” by doing more of the same.

It’s not just Republicans who are worried about inflation. Harvard Professor Larry Summers, who served as secretary of the Treasury under President Barack Obama, strongly criticized the current Treasury position on inflation as unrealistic and out of sync with what everyday Americans are experiencing.

But some voters say they are willing to risk higher prices in favor of societal reforms that they feel are urgently needed. 

At a rally earlier this week in Arlington, Virginia, where Mr. Biden was campaigning for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe, voter Cindy Vasko – a statistician by training – says she checks the inflation statistics every day and is worried about hyperinflation. Yet the longtime Republican voter, who switched parties in 2016, still supports Mr. Biden’s ambitious package of social spending.

“You have to balance out the good with the bad. And I think the good outweighs the bad,” she says. “I think they can get a handle on inflation if they get the supply chain problem resolved somewhat.”

On the Build Back Better plan, most of the Democratic sales pitch centers on new programs they say will create a more equitable society and address climate change concerns.  

Progressives, who have driven a hard bargain – and, with a 96-member caucus, can easily make or break legislation – have relinquished some of their earlier demands and were touting the “phenomenal” progress they’d made over the past few weeks since forcing Speaker Pelosi to delay a promised vote on the infrastructure bill.

The drawn-out process in recent weeks has caused some angst among voters on the left. At a protest near the Capitol on Wednesday, Joan Steede, a hospice worker from Phoenix who makes less than $15 per hour after 30 years in health care, said she doesn’t see the country advancing without the Build Back Better plan.   

“Americans have lost faith in the government,” she says. “If we could see some movement in government, I think it would improve the entire morale of the American people.”

Staff writers Story Hinckley and Dwight Weingarten contributed reporting from Arlington, Virginia, and Washington.