State of the Union: Can Biden meet the moment?

Out of crisis, opportunity. For President Joe Biden, that saying may well capture the moment, as he prepares to deliver his State of the Union address Tuesday night.

After decades in politics, President Biden is positioned to deliver the speech of a lifetime. The eyes of the world will be upon him, as the United States rallies the Western alliance to stand up to Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement Sunday that his nation’s nuclear forces had been put on high alert only underscores the gravity of the moment.  

The unfolding crisis abroad has, for now, dramatically upended the political environment at home. Mr. Biden’s domestic challenges, which have been weighing down his approval ratings, are likely to take a back seat when he goes before the cameras at 9 p.m. Eastern time.

Those challenges remain considerable: Inflation is at a 40-year high; his climate agenda has stalled, as the United Nations delivers a dire warning; and American democracy is under enormous stress amid deep partisan polarization. 

“At first blush, it’s like, oh boy, not a great time to give a State of the Union,” says Peter Fenn, a veteran Democratic strategist. “But on second blush, the issues are so momentous, the timing is so right for a really serious address to the nation.” 

One unexpected bright spot: The pandemic, which has driven or compounded many of those challenges, appears to be waning, at least for now. Masks are now optional inside the Capitol building, and all members may attend the president’s speech – providing viewers with a visual reminder that the nation may be returning to some form of normal. 

But the return of fencing around the Capitol – which went up after the Jan. 6 riot last year and has periodically been reinstalled when security threats arise – serves as a reminder that “normal” is a relative term. 

Overall, with independent Ukraine facing an existential threat, amid the biggest security crisis in Europe since World War II, U.S. domestic matters have largely receded from the news. 

In the short term, the Russia-Ukraine crisis is providing fertile ground for bipartisan consensus, with Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress agreeing on a Ukrainian assistance package and sanctions against Russia and Mr. Putin. 

Still, the GOP’s dominant figure, former President Donald Trump, has continued to praise Mr. Putin, calling him “smart” even while condemning the Ukraine invasion. In a speech Saturday, the former president saved his harshest criticism for President Biden. 

“Putin is playing Biden like a drum, and it’s not a pretty thing to watch,” Mr. Trump told the Conservative Political Action Conference in Orlando, Florida.

But it’s Mr. Biden who has the bigger megaphone. 

“The circumstances of the moment give him a bully pulpit, and this doesn’t happen all that often,” says Russell Riley, co-chair of the Presidential Oral History Program at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center. “If you’re looking for pivot moments in a presidency that’s had its share of difficulties, this creates the predicate for that kind of historic moment.” 

In the not-so-distant past, another Democratic president delivered his State of the Union at a time of crisis, though of a personal nature, and turned it to his advantage. In 1998, fresh off revelations that President Bill Clinton had had an affair with an intern, he delivered a bravura performance. His approval rating in the Gallup Poll jumped 10 points. 

“Everybody was saying, ‘This is terrible timing,’” says Professor Riley. “He went to the well of the chamber and delivered an address with a lot of substance that actually sort of saved his bacon.”

Four-plus months after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, President George W. Bush delivered a different sort of crisis address. This State of the Union was most remembered for coining the phrase “axis of evil,” referring to governments that he said sponsored terrorism. It became one of the catchphrases of Mr. Bush’s presidency, and served to rally Americans around a “war on terror.”

Today, Mr. Biden may not be as well positioned as either of these two past presidents to take advantage of his high-stakes moment. Both Presidents Bush and Clinton were already popular at the time of their crisis-infused speeches: Mr. Bush’s approval ratings had soared to 90% after the 9/11 attacks and were still hovering in the mid-80s; Mr. Clinton, bolstered by a strong economy that included a budget surplus, was at a respectable 59%. 

Mr. Biden, by contrast, has garnered dismal numbers of late. The most recent ABC News/Washington Post poll shows him with a career-low 37% job approval, with low ratings on his handling of the economy, the Ukraine invasion, and overall leadership.

Still, on domestic matters there are points he is expected to highlight: The spike in pandemic caseloads from the omicron variant has receded. Most mask mandates have been lifted, or soon will be. Most schools have reopened. 

Another applause point, at least for Democrats, will be the expected mention of his Supreme Court nominee, Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, the first Black woman to be so honored. 

The biggest point of unity may well emerge around Ukraine, where President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s leadership under fire has won him global praise. Mr. Biden can be expected to tout President Zelenskyy’s bravery Tuesday night and double down on U.S. efforts to help Ukraine with both humanitarian and military assistance. 

“Joe Biden has the opportunity to stand in front of the nation and unite us, as a wartime political leader,” says Jennifer Mercieca, a historian of American political rhetoric at Texas A&M University. “He should be able to convince us that American actions aiding Ukraine are justified and in our interest.”

On matters of war, she notes, there can be a “rally around the flag” effect – at least in the beginning. The chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan last August, after 20 years, contributed to Mr. Biden’s decline in the polls.

The president also has a story to tell on the domestic front, she says – including his efforts to combat the pandemic, provide relief to everyday Americans, and implement the bipartisan infrastructure plan. Still, she adds, American trust in government has been on the decline, and it’s possible his message will fail to move the needle. 

Changing the narrative of a president juggling several major crises simultaneously is no easy task, ahead of crucial midterm elections. 

“This is a big speech – a big opportunity, and a lot of risk,” Professor Mercieca says.