How the end of Roe could be pivotal in the midterms

At first blush, the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade – the 1973 ruling that established a nationwide right to abortion – might seem to benefit Democrats in the coming midterm elections. 

Before June 24, when the high court issued its bombshell decision, Democrats were facing severe headwinds heading into November. President Joe Biden is unpopular, averaging below 40% job approval in polls. Rampant inflation, soaring gas prices, and high-profile crime have put voters in a sour mood. Democratic control of the White House and both houses of Congress puts the party on defense. 

Now Democrats say they have a blockbuster issue – a woman’s right to end an unwanted pregnancy, suddenly gone in many states – that can energize not just their voters but also independents and perhaps even some pro-abortion-rights Republicans. Polls consistently show a majority of voters support access to abortion, with some limits. 

“The Republicans wanted to make this a battleground, and they’ve gone too far,” says Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. “They’re going to pay a price in November.”

In the week since Roe’s demise, Democratic candidates around the country have been loudly seizing on public sentiment that leans toward favoring abortion rights, while many Republicans seem to be downplaying the issue. 

Still, anyone who thinks Republicans are going to declare victory and move on is mistaken, anti-abortion activists say. For some abortion foes, getting rid of Roe is just the start. Within moments of the June 24 ruling, former Vice President Mike Pence called for a nationwide ban on abortion.

“I’m sure [Democrats] will be energized,” says Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. “But the pro-life side has waited 50 years for this to matter [in elections]. You don’t wait for it to become salient and stay home.”

In Washington, Republicans are in the minority and have no ability to pass a nationwide ban. But Democrats also do not appear to have enough votes to pass a law guaranteeing a nationwide right to abortion. President Biden said Thursday he would support waiving the filibuster to “codify Roe,” which would allow the bill to pass with a simple majority in the Senate, instead of the usual 60 votes. But on Friday, he acknowledged he didn’t have the votes required to alter the rules, and urged his party to get more of its own elected as senators in the midterms.

And so the fight over abortion rights, for now, is truly state by state. Ms. Dannenfelser’s organization is running campaigns in eight battleground states ahead of the midterms: Wisconsin, Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. She says the anti-abortion group is targeting voters regardless of party – Democrat, Republican, independent. Democrats, for their part, are already running ads attacking Republicans on the issue in states from New Hampshire to Illinois to Pennsylvania.   

The biggest battlegrounds heading into November are statewide campaigns – foremost, Senate and governors’ races. If Democrats can retain the Senate, they’d still have a majority for confirmations, especially crucial in the event of another Supreme Court vacancy. And with abortion rights now determined at the state level, governors in battleground states are suddenly all the more important – along with control of state legislatures.

Recent polls suggest Democrats may be getting a boost from the issue, at least for now. The latest Marist poll found that 56% of Americans oppose the June 24 ruling, versus 40% who support it. A CBS poll found a similar result, including a big gender gap, with 67% of women in opposition and 33% in favor. 

Yet the abortion issue may be energizing Republicans too. While a recent Morning Consult poll found Democratic enthusiasm for voting in the midterms had gained ground after the Supreme Court ruling, it was still slightly behind Republican enthusiasm.

“There’s no evidence that making Roe a centerpiece this year changes everything to a Democratic advantage,” says Charles Franklin, an expert on public opinion and director of the Marquette Law School Poll.

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida 

Every state has its own unique political ecosystem. Take Wisconsin – a closely divided state and a top battleground for both the 2022 Senate and governor’s races. In 2020, President Biden won it by a sliver, about 20,000 votes.

Yet Wisconsin’s new abortion policy is more draconian than Mississippi’s. The state’s abortion clinics have already shut down, in light of an 1849 state law banning abortion, which went into effect after the June 24 ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health. The Republican-heavy state legislature has declined to repeal the 173-year-old state law. Democratic Gov. Tony Evers has pledged to grant clemency to doctors prosecuted under the abortion ban, and the state’s Democratic attorney general has sued to block the law. Both men are running for reelection this fall. 

In Florida, the largest electoral battleground in the country, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis praised the Dobbs ruling, but offered few specifics as to how he might “work to expand pro-life protections,” as he put it. In April, he signed a law limiting legal abortion in Florida to 15 weeks of pregnancy, with no exceptions for rape or incest – more restrictive than previous Florida law under Roe but less so than the bans in other, redder states. On Thursday, a Florida judge temporarily blocked the law from taking effect; Governor DeSantis says he will appeal. 

The Florida governor appears to have his eyes on a larger prize – the Republican nomination for president. For that, he would need to woo the GOP’s anti-abortion base. But first he needs to win his November reelection race, in a state that leans only slightly Republican and where a solid majority of residents support abortion rights. Thus, the low-key approach on abortion – for now. 

At a Monitor Breakfast on June 22, Florida Sen. Rick Scott – chair of the Republican Senate campaign committee and another possible presidential hopeful – said he supported the new Florida law. But when asked about the lack of exceptions for rape and incest, he said, “I believe there ought to be exceptions.” 

Another top battleground state is Pennsylvania, where the races for two open statewide offices, Senate and governor, are garnering national attention. 

In the Senate race, Democrat John Fetterman has staked out a vocally pro-abortion-rights position. His GOP opponent, Dr. Mehmet Oz, says he opposes abortion, but was criticized in the primary for past statements suggesting he favored personal choice. 

The governor’s race could be more immediately consequential: GOP nominee Doug Mastriano has called abortion the No. 1 issue, and wants a statewide ban without exceptions. Democratic nominee Josh Shapiro, currently the state attorney general, is fundraising on the issue, referring to Mr. Mastriano’s “dangerous views on abortion rights.” The latest data from Pew Research Center show a slim majority of Pennsylvanians, 51%, want abortion to be legal in all or most cases. 

What suburban women want

One key demographic, for both parties, is suburban women. This cohort is already known for high turnout, so the question is, on which issues will they base their votes? 

In a focus group Wednesday evening of nine older, suburban female swing voters from around the country, conducted on Zoom by a Democratic strategist and viewed anonymously by this reporter, negative emotions regarding the state of the country poured out. The women said they were “concerned,” “depressed,” “frustrated,” and “anxious.” 

Kitchen table issues dominated, with the economy weighing heavily on these voters. So, too, did education and recent mass shootings. But without being prompted, the overturning of Roe came up early in the two-hour focus group session.

That’s a “big concern,” said one woman, a retiree from suburban Detroit, who also raised concerns about the future of LGBTQ rights. “It’s a minority of people who are making these decisions for all of us. I just don’t like it.”

A woman in her late 60s from suburban Houston also worried out loud that the overturning of Roe could lead to the undoing of other rights. 

“It bothers me a lot,” she said. “If they can overturn Roe v. Wade, they can overturn interracial marriage, they can overturn gay marriage, they can overturn my right to vote. ... It’s Christian values that they’re voting on, and not everybody in this country is Christian.”

Not everyone in the group supported abortion rights. A woman from suburban Chicago called the Supreme Court’s ruling “perfect, because it should be decided at the state level.” 

And another woman, from suburban Maryland, gave the abortion issue only “medium weight” in determining how she’ll vote – with a warning for Democrats. “The party I depended on allow[ed] this to happen, and it’s too late,” she said. 

Staff writer Simon Montlake contributed to this report.