With Senate hopes dwindling, Democrats look, once again, to Texas

Just 11 days before an election expected to hinge on just a handful of swing states, both major party nominees for America’s next president are descending on a state that, while not a presidential battleground, could be mighty important.

On Friday, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are taking their campaigns to Texas – Mr. Trump in Austin and Ms. Harris in Houston.

While both candidates are using the appearances to amplify base issues – border security for Mr. Trump and abortion for Ms. Harris – they’re also hoping to give late boosts to candidates in what has become a critical U.S. Senate race.

A Republican Senate candidate hasn’t lost in Texas since 1988, but Sen. Ted Cruz, considered an abrasive conservative even by some members of his own party, came close in 2018. Now, Colin Allred, a Dallas-area congressman and former professional football player, hopes to oust him in what would be one of the biggest upsets of the election.

As demographic changes in the Southwest have helped turn states like Arizona and Nevada into political battlegrounds, many analysts say that the Lone Star State is heading in the same direction. Still, while each election has brought fresh buzz that Republican dominance here is ending, that buzz has routinely evaporated on Election Night.

There is little evidence that this year will be any different, but Texas is now more important to Democrats’ electoral hopes than ever before. Ms. Harris’ party, which currently holds a functional one-seat majority in the Senate, is defending far more seats than Republicans this cycle, including several in states Mr. Trump won by big margins in 2020. With West Virginia all but certain to elect a Republican and Montana looking increasingly likely to as well, that means Democrats will need to flip a GOP seat to retain control.

The focus has become Texas. It’s still a long shot, experts say. But polls show Representative Allred is within striking distance – and as such, has become Democrats’ best hope to hold the Senate and their next great hope to turn Texas purple.

“Texas has emerged as their best chance to flip a Republican-held seat,” says Jessica Taylor, the Senate and Governors editor for the Cook Political Report. “It’s been trending Democrat recently, but is it there yet? I don’t think so,” she adds. “Those last few points in Texas are just incredibly hard to get.”

Democrats’ “last, best hope”

Six-year terms for senators help make each election map different from the last. The 2024 map is one that national Democrats have been fearing for a long time.

“We knew years ago that the map was going to be absolutely brutal going into this cycle,” says Jim Manley, a Democratic strategist. “So far that’s proving to be the case.”

Democrats ended six years of GOP control of the Senate in 2020, and two years later, won a 51-49 majority. But now the blue team is defending 19 seats, plus four held by independents who caucus with them. Republicans, meanwhile, are defending 11 seats, all in reliably red states.

Polls suggest that the GOP is likely to flip two seats, replacing retiring Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in West Virginia and ousting three-term incumbent Sen. Jon Tester in Montana.

Democratic incumbents are also facing tough races in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Only a few states have polls suggesting that Republican incumbents may be remotely in danger. In the campaign’s final weeks, Democrats are pouring money into two of them: Texas and Florida.

Senator Cruz leads Mr. Allred by just one point, according to a poll released last week by Emerson College and The Hill. Other recent polls have the two-term Democrat slightly further behind. But Mr. Cruz has consistently been one of the least popular Republicans in Texas.

”He’s a very controversial figure, always has been, always will be,” says Whit Ayres, a GOP pollster based in Virginia.

Mr. Allred, a former professional football player-turned-civil rights lawyer, has used his opponent’s disagreeable reputation to build a big fundraising advantage. The Democrat has trumpeted his bipartisan record, and he’s attacked Mr. Cruz’s support for the state’s abortion ban. Mr. Allred has also highlighted his opponent’s infamous family vacation to Cancun, documented by reporters, during a deadly winter storm in 2021 that killed hundreds and left millions of Texans without power for days. When he returned, Mr. Cruz said the trip “was obviously a mistake.”

As he has campaigned, the Republican has highlighted his own burgeoning bipartisan record, and criticized his opponent on border security and transgender issues.

All told, Texas “is the last, best hope Democrats have” for holding the Senate, says Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston. “Polling is close, you have a turbocharged electorate ... and Ted Cruz remains uniquely unliked.”

That may still not be enough, he continues. “But it’s worth the investment now.”

Not blue, but more competitive

It may seem like a Hail Mary this year, but Democrats’ longer-term focus on Texas is understandable.

For one, the state’s 40 Electoral College votes are essential to Republican presidential hopes.

But the state is also becoming more competitive.

Demographic changes that have made the Southwest politically winnable for Democrats – namely a declining White population and a growing, young Hispanic population – are also unfolding in the Lone Star State. The state’s Republican margin of victory has narrowed in the past two presidential elections, and new voter registrations hit a record high this year.

But the momentum has yet to translate to statewide victory for Democrats.

In 2016, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton said her campaign “could win Texas.” She lost to Mr. Trump by nine points. Two years later, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s energetic, grassroots campaign to unseat Mr. Cruz ended with a less-than-three-point defeat. While Mr. Cruz himself had said that Texas would be hotly contested in the 2020 election, both Mr. Trump and GOP Sen. John Cornyn won comfortably.

“I’ve been promised Texas turning blue for at least six to eight years, and it hasn’t happened yet,” says Mr. Manley, the Democratic strategist who spent over two decades working in the Senate.

“It’s reasonable” to think it will happen, he adds, “It’s maybe just not going to happen as soon as some are suggesting.”

Groundwork for the future?

One factor, experts say, is that Texas is fundamentally more conservative than states like Nevada and Arizona. Indeed, while the state’s urban centers have been growing bluer, the Hispanic population has been shifting in the GOP’s direction.

Texas is also much bigger, making it more difficult – and much more expensive – to build campaign infrastructure and name recognition for candidates. To date, the Democratic Party hasn’t done much to change that.

“They’re paying for ads, exposure, canvassing. They’re not investing in physical things that might build infrastructure for the future,” says Dr. Rottinghaus, the University of Houston political scientist, referring to the development of volunteer networks, fundraising resources, and slates of quality candidates for local and county elections around the state.

This contrasts with how the GOP wrested the state from Democratic control in the late 20th century. When John Tower was elected to the Senate in 1961, he became the first Republican to win statewide office since Reconstruction, but it took another three decades for the GOP to gain proper traction in the state.

“You don’t go from being noncompetitive at the statewide level for cycles and cycles [to] all of a sudden being very successful,” says Matt Mackowiak, a Republican strategist in Texas.

“It’s clear [Democrats] are building something. Are they building it fast enough? Are they building it to make it strong enough to really break through? ... It doesn’t seem that way to me,” he adds.