How Democrats’ campaign chair thinks they can still win the Senate

The man charged with keeping Democrats in power in the Senate this election predicted that his party is on track to defy the odds and hang onto its narrow majority.

“I believe we’re going to hold the majority. I feel good about where we are,” Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, the chair of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee, told reporters at a breakfast hosted by The Christian Science Monitor Tuesday morning.

That’s a tall order.

Democrats currently have 51 Senate seats, meaning if they hold the White House this fall they can afford to lose just one – and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin’s retirement all but guarantees they will be down a seat. (In the case of a 50-50 Senate, the vice president casts the tie-breaking vote.)

That means they likely need to sweep every other seat they currently hold, including winning in red states like Montana and Ohio, as well as battlegrounds in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Democrats are also eyeing potential pickup opportunities in Florida and Texas, though those states are uphill battles and have yet to see the level of financial investment from Democrats as the other races.

Mr. Peters said he expects many of the races to be neck-and-neck through Election Day.

“We’re basically where I thought we would be after Labor Day in really tight races,” he said. “And ultimately it’s going to be won on the margin.”

Democrats have held leads in the polls in most of the swing states, though public surveys indicate tightening races. Their toughest challenges, however, come in defending Montana Sen. Jon Tester and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown.

Mr. Peters acknowledged that it’s not as easy as it once was for Senate candidates to win in states where the presidential race is breaking the other way – “getting ticket-splitters is harder than it used to be.” But he argued that the uniquely strong brands that Senators Tester and Brown have cultivated in their nearly two decades in office would help them survive this election cycle.

Senator Tester appears to be in worse shape right now, trailing narrowly in a few public and private polls, while Senator Brown has so far kept a lead in his race. 

Mr. Peters argued that Democrats could still hold the Senate even if Mr. Tester falls short, arguing that Republican Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rick Scott of Florida were both beatable. Public polls have shown both races are competitive. But the Republicans have consistently led – and those states are two of the most expensive in the nation to advertise in because of their numerous costly media markets. Mr. Peters pointed out that Democrats just put more money into field operations in both states, but they haven’t revealed any major TV reservations yet, which would be a sign that they are really playing to win in those states. 

Mr. Peters conceded that “you need to be on TV in a big way” and invest in other digital and social media to have a real shot at winning either race. He declined to commit his committee to doing so.

“Decisions as to what kind of resources will go in are going to be made real time and are likely to evolve,” he said. “Democrats are going to put more resources into those states if the momentum we’ve seen today continues. I’m certainly very encouraged.”

Mr. Peters pointed out that abortion referenda are on the ballot in both Montana and Texas, as well as in other states with Senate races like Arizona. Previous statewide referenda in purple and red states have spurred big surges in Democratic turnout and been approved by wide margins by voters, and Mr. Peters predicted that could help them win. 

“We expect that to be very powerful,” he said.