World leaders try to sway Trump on trade and Ukraine

Donald Trump is not yet in office. But for the outside world, especially key American allies, he is already in power.

That became inescapably clear this week, as world leaders intensified their efforts to head off major disruption when he returns to the Oval Office in a few days’ time.

They began to act almost as soon as Mr. Trump won the election in November.

Their main thrust: to make nice with the president-elect, engage with him and his team, and argue they share a mutual interest in avoiding sudden swings in U.S. economic and security policy.

But they also seem aware of the need to give him policy “wins” in return, something that might not always prove easy, or even possible.

The allies’ immediate concern is trade. Mr. Trump has signaled his intention to impose across-the-board tariffs not just on China, but also on Canada and Mexico (America’s top trading partners) and the 27 nations of the European Union. That could hugely unsettle a world economy that is still struggling with the effects of the pandemic and the Ukraine war.

The other worry, given Mr. Trump’s record of denigrating U.S. military alliances, is security. NATO allies worry he will abandon Ukraine and push for a ceasefire there on Russia’s terms.

Europe is making a particularly concerted push to head off a tariff hike and to sustain support for Ukraine.

Last weekend, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni flew to Florida to meet Mr. Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort.

She could be key to heading off – or at least limiting – tariffs. She is the EU’s most prominent right-wing leader, and has a good personal relationship with Mr. Trump. That makes her well placed to argue for trade negotiations instead of a trade war, possibly sweetened by a commitment to the major increase in European defense spending that the president-elect has been demanding.

She has also been committed to denying Russia victory in Ukraine.

The EU’s main Ukraine policy asset, however, may be Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. During Mr. Trump’s first term, Poland was his favored NATO ally: He even decided to redeploy some U.S. troops there from Germany.

While that occurred under a far-right government that Mr. Tusk subsequently defeated in elections, Poland has continued to ramp up defense spending. It is set to reach nearly 5% of gross domestic product this year, the target Mr. Trump says all NATO allies should meet, and well above the alliance’s current average of under 3%.

Ukraine has also been on a charm-plus-benefits offensive, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has spoken to Mr. Trump several times since the election. His aim is to persuade the president-elect that a negotiated deal giving Mr. Putin what he wants would risk undermining both U.S. credibility and Mr. Trump’s own reputation as a dealmaker.

Aware of Mr. Trump’s criticism of the billions of dollars that the Biden administration gave Kyiv, he has also added a suggestion: Give sanction-frozen Russian funds to Ukraine. It would then use them to purchase weapons from America.

Even less politically well-placed European leaders have been courting Mr. Trump.

French President Emmanuel Macron, whose embrace of Mr. Trump early in his first term turned sour, not only invited but also reportedly implored him to attend the grand reopening of Notre Dame cathedral in Paris last month. Mr. Trump was there.

Britain’s left-of-center prime minister, Keir Starmer, has also reached out. And for his new ambassador to Washington, he chose Peter Mandelson, a political heavyweight and close ally who is a former EU trade commissioner. The clear hope: serious engagement on the tariff issue.

America’s closest neighbors and trading partners, Canada and Mexico, share that hope, but the public signs have not been encouraging. Mr. Trump has openly denigrated Canada’s retiring Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and this week he reiterated a suggestion that Canada should simply become America’s 51st state.

But like the Europeans, Mr. Trudeau has tried to avoid a tit-for-tat battle with Mr. Trump. And the Canadians have been engaging with his team to see how they might give the president the more effective border measures he says are needed to head off tariffs.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo has been trying to persuade Mr. Trump to pause both the imposition of tariffs and the mass deportation plan he has promised. The repercussions of both would hurt both Mexico and the United States, she argues.

Allies in other potential trouble spots – neighbors of China and North Korea in Asia, and countries on both sides of the Middle East conflict – have been equally focused on getting Mr. Trump’s ear as inauguration day approaches, uncertain about the future strength and direction of Washington’s commitment to international relations.

For them, too, the rule of thumb has been to make nice.

They are also buckling up. Uncertain what lies ahead, America’s allies are hoping for overall stability, but they are ready for turbulence.

They have fastened their seat belts, but they worry about the cabin crew message that no one wants to hear: “Prepare for impact.”