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Monitor Daily Podcast

November 25, 2024
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TODAY’S INTRO

Donald Trump’s balancing act on China

The big question on many people’s minds, both in the United States and abroad, concerns what President-elect Donald Trump is actually going to do. His first term offers some clues as to how rhetoric became policy (or not). But much has changed.

Today, Ann Scott Tyson asks this question about Mr. Trump’s China policy. She shows how two core elements of Mr. Trump’s political identity are in conflict on China. How he manages that balance will be something to watch.

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Among Israeli settlers hoping to annex West Bank, euphoria over Trump’s win

The pro-settlement movement in Israel is exulting at what it perceives as a possible green light from the incoming Trump Middle East team to pursue annexation of the West Bank, even without the support of the broader Israeli public.

Nasser Ishtayeh /SOPA Images/Reuters
Palestinians throw stones at Israeli settlers after settlers set fire to a Palestinian family's home and car in the town of Beit Furik, east of Nablus, in the occupied West Bank, Nov. 16, 2024.
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In the last year, with most Israelis focused on the post-Oct. 7 war in Gaza, settlement construction in the West Bank has ballooned alongside new roads and infrastructure, including a dramatic increase in the establishment of unauthorized settler outposts.

In a new report, Israeli human rights groups describe what they say are significant structural and legal changes by the Israeli government, the most religious and right-wing in the nation’s history, that “alter the face of the West Bank.”

The day after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, Israel’s hard-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, posted a comment on the social platform X that reflected the delight of the pro-settlement camp. Using the biblical terms for the occupied West Bank, he wrote, “2025 is the year of Israeli sovereignty over Judea and Samaria.”

Yisrael Medad, a spokesperson for an umbrella group of West Bank settlements, says he is encouraged by Mr. Trump’s victory, noting that in his first term as president, settlements were declared not to be a violation of international law, reversing longstanding U.S. policy.

“The brave man is the one who seizes the opportunity, and that is what we have to do now and do the best we can,” says Mr. Medad.

Among Israeli settlers hoping to annex West Bank, euphoria over Trump’s win

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Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s hard-right finance minister, posted a comment on the social platform X the day after Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election that reflected the delight of the pro-settlement camp.

Using the biblical terms for the occupied West Bank, he wrote, “2025 is the year of Israeli sovereignty over Judea and Samaria.”

Bitter responses followed from some Israelis, who berated him for not wishing instead for more consensus outcomes: the end of the multifront war that the country has been battling since coming under Hamas attack in October 2023, and the bringing home of the 101 hostages still held in Gaza – an ongoing national trauma.

But the pro-settlement movement in Israel – including Mr. Smotrich, its main advocate in the government – is exulting at what it perceives as a possible green light from the incoming Trump Middle East team to pursue annexation of the West Bank, even without the support of the broader Israeli public.

In constructing the current government coalition, the most religious and far-right in the country’s history, two years ago, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu granted Mr. Smotrich unprecedented power to oversee Israel’s settlement enterprise and civil administration in the West Bank.

So much so that many experts say annexation of the part of the West Bank where most Jewish settlers live has already become a reality, sparking ire both regionally and internationally. For decades the existence and growth of settlements have been an obstacle to forging a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians.

Ilia Yefimovich/picture alliance/dpa/AP
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, the main pro-settlement advocate in the government, addresses far-right activists at an event called Preparing to Resettle Gaza, in Be'eri, Israel, Oct. 21, 2024.

In the last year, with most Israelis’ focus on the post-Oct. 7 war in Gaza, settlement construction in the West Bank has ballooned alongside new roads and infrastructure, including a dramatic increase in the establishment of unauthorized settler outposts.

In a new report, Israeli human rights groups describe what they say are significant structural and legal changes by the government that “alter the face of the West Bank and the structure of Israeli control there.”

The government, the report says, is “methodically implementing a strategy designed to achieve the political vision of applying full Israeli sovereignty to the West Bank, while establishing a reality of Jewish supremacy and forcing the Palestinians living in the area into to the smallest possible geographical space.”

An aim to weaken opposition to annexation

Yael Berda, a legal scholar and professor of sociology at The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, says the recent spike in settler violence is not haphazard, but fits into a plan to transfer Palestinian residents from what is known as “Area C,” the 60% of the West Bank that has both Jewish and Palestinian communities.

“They are [de facto] annexing where there are Jews living, which is why the fight is so intense to get Palestinians who live there off the land,” says Dr. Berda, author of “The Bureaucracy of the Occupation in the West Bank.”

Palestinians have long claimed all areas of the West Bank as part of their own future state, while settlers see the territory as their biblical birthright. For them, Palestinian statehood is not only a security threat, but also an anathema to historic Jewish claims.

The violence in Area C, which has included deadly settler rampages, led the Biden administration to impose sanctions on a key settler group – a development that Israel’s right-wing is hoping a Trump White House will undo.

According to Dr. Berda, the main goal of the government’s controversial judicial overhaul plan, which elicited months of massive pro-democracy demonstrations in Israel in the months before the Israel-Hamas war, was West Bank annexation. By weakening the Supreme Court and the state’s legal advisers, she argues, the government had hoped to stymie the very institutions that have served as the primary check on the settlement project.

Under Finance Minister Smotrich, almost 6,000 acres of West Bank land have been declared state land and 50 new settler outposts have been established with organizational and funding support from the government, according to Hagit Ofran, who leads Peace Now’s Settlement Watch division.

With these outposts, “Small groups of settlers take over huge amounts of land and on a daily basis kick out Palestinians from their land, not allowing them to go there with their flocks or cultivate their land,” says Ms. Ofran. “They are taking hill after hill, and the government puts $75 million into their development – something we had not seen before. ... What I suspect we will see under Trump is the expulsion of Palestinians will be even more organized.”

Ohad Zwigenberg/AP
A housing construction site on the edge of the Jewish settlement of Eli, in the occupied West Bank, Nov. 11, 2024.

The most recent example of one kind of rule for Jewish settlers and another for Palestinians in the West Bank is the decision last week by new Defense Minister Israel Katz to end administrative detention only for settlers – a step the Biden administration condemned. Administrative detention is a tool used by Israel to detain terror suspects without trial.

In an act of brazenness Friday, Jewish settlers even attacked senior Israeli military officers, including a general in charge of the army’s command in the West Bank.

“The brave man ... seizes the opportunity”

Yisrael Medad, a spokesperson for The Yesha Council, an umbrella group of West Bank settlements, condemned violence of any kind carried out by settlers, saying its perpetrators were outside the movement’s mainstream.

He says he is encouraged by Mr. Trump’s victory, noting that in his first term as president, settlements were declared not to be a violation of international law, reversing longstanding U.S. policy and opening the door to annexation.

“The brave man is the one who seizes the opportunity, and that is what we have to do now and do the best we can,” says Mr. Medad.

According to Eitay Mack, an Israeli human rights lawyer who has represented Palestinians in the West Bank, “If full annexation happens, there will no longer be a hybrid regime of democracy within the Green Line [the official borders of Israel] and authoritarianism in the West Bank – but just an authoritarian regime based on race.”

Mr. Smotrich, who says there is no such thing as a Palestinian people, said following Trump’s election, “We will apply the sovereignty, together with our American friends.”

Among those friends is Mike Huckabee, named by Mr. Trump as his pick for U.S. ambassador to Israel. The former Arkansas governor and evangelical minister has said he doesn’t view the West Bank as occupied land, nor the half-million settlers there as occupiers.

Signaling the opportunity he sees in Mr. Trump’s return to power, Mr. Netanyahu has appointed Yechiel Leiter, a former settler leader and an advocate of annexation, as Israel’s ambassador to the United States.

News Briefs

Today’s news briefs

• Move to dismiss Trump charges: Federal prosecutors move to dismiss the criminal charges against President-elect Donald Trump that accused him of plotting to overturn the 2020 election and to abandon the classified documents case against him.
• Haitian gangs recruit children: A new UNICEF report finds that the number of children recruited by gangs in Haiti surged by 70% in the past year.
• Plastic pollution treaty: A round of negotiations on a legally binding treaty to address plastic pollution has opened in Busan, South Korea.
• Bible teachings in Texas: Texas’ education board has voted to allow Bible-infused teachings in elementary schools.
• Uruguay presidential election: Uruguay’s leftist candidate, Yamandú Orsi, becomes the country’s new president in a tight runoff election that ousted the conservative governing coalition.

Read these news briefs.

Marco Rubio wants to take a hard line on China. Will he be able to?

Several of Donald Trump’s Cabinet picks are China “hawks.” His choice for secretary of state, Marco Rubio, shows the tensions between ideology and pragmatism that will be at play in his administration’s relationship with Beijing.

Vincent Thian/AP/File
A protester holds high a U.S. flag in Hong Kong Nov. 28, 2019.
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It was Thanksgiving night 2019, and a jubilant crowd of tens of thousands of democracy activists rallied harborside on Hong Kong island. Singing and waving American flags, they celebrated a new U.S. law to sanction Chinese authorities for suppressing the basic freedoms of people in Hong Kong.

A cheer arose as a video of the law’s author, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, appeared on a huge screen. The protesters were “an inspiration to the world,” Mr. Rubio said. “Your cause,” he pledged, “will continue to be our cause.”

But behind the scenes, the U.S. government’s support for the movement was less clear-cut. Until the last minute, then-President Donald Trump had wavered on signing the law. “I stand with freedom,” he explained. “But we’re also in the process of making the largest trade deal in history” with China.

Today this same tension – between ideology and pragmatism – promises to play out prominently in the incoming administration’s China policy. Now the nominee for secretary of state, Mr. Rubio is among several “hawks” Mr. Trump has selected for his Cabinet. Their stances toward Beijing have been consistently tougher than their boss’s. But experts say the new president’s pragmatism may soften them.

Marco Rubio wants to take a hard line on China. Will he be able to?

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It was Thanksgiving night 2019, and a jubilant crowd of tens of thousands of democracy activists rallied harborside on Hong Kong island. Singing and waving American flags above a sea of glittering cellphone lights, they celebrated a new U.S. law to sanction Chinese authorities for suppressing the basic freedoms of Hong Kong’s 7.4 million people.

A cheer arose as a video of the law’s author, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, appeared on a huge screen. “I hope the people of Hong Kong know that they have served as an inspiration to the world,” Mr. Rubio said. “Your cause,” he pledged, “will continue to be our cause.”

But behind the scenes, the U.S. government’s support for the protesters was less clear-cut. Until the last minute, then-President Donald Trump had wavered on signing the law. “I stand with freedom,” he explained. “But we’re also in the process of making the largest trade deal in history” with China.

Today this same tension – between ideology and pragmatism – promises to play out prominently in the incoming administration’s China policy. Now the nominee for secretary of state, Mr. Rubio is among several “hawks” Mr. Trump has selected for his Cabinet. Their stances toward Beijing have been consistently tougher than their boss’s. But he will also have allies for a more transactional approach, like entrepreneur Elon Musk, who will serve as an adviser to the new president.

Either way, Mr. Trump’s return to power is expected to bring heightened confrontation and increased volatility to the relationship between the world’s two superpowers, especially over trade.

“We watch all this very carefully, with suspicion, to be honest,” says Da Wei, director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “President Trump could be very hawkish toward China, or could be transactional – we don’t know.”

Evan Vucci/AP/File
Donald Trump greets Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., during a campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, Nov. 4, 2024.

America’s “gravest threat”

Beijing, for its part, is hoping to establish informal channels to size up the Trump administration’s goals. It will do this by leveraging friendly relations with business executives such as Mr. Musk, who sees China as a vital market for his Tesla electric vehicle company and has cordial relations with top Chinese leaders, including Premier Li Qiang.

Meanwhile, the strategy Mr. Trump adopts toward the administration of leader Xi Jinping, whom Mr. Trump has called “a friend,” could determine whether the world’s two major powers deepen their conflict over key issues such as Taiwan, trade, and technology. It will also influence whether they continue key dialogues – including those aimed at preventing accidents between their two formidable militaries – as well as cooperation on critical issues such as global warming, analysts say.

Overall, Mr. Trump’s administration is likely to take “a more hawkish approach” towards Beijing than that of Joe Biden, including new tariffs and technology restrictions, says Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, an American think tank. “There is already a comprehensive rivalry underway. This would raise the temperature,” he says.

Mr. Rubio’s nomination in particular points to how the hawks may shape the two countries’ relationship going forward. As one of the most ideologically driven critics of China among U.S. leaders, he has championed human rights in China and repeatedly authored laws aimed at defending groups such as Hong Kong citizens and western China’s ethnic Uyghurs, a Muslim minority.

In a major speech at The Heritage Foundation in March 2022, Mr. Rubio laid out his stark view of China’s Communist Party as a threatening, power-hungry regime bent on weakening the United States and dominating the world.

Kevin Lamarque/Reuters/File
Donald Trump attends a bilateral meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019.

China – not climate change or the pandemic – is “the gravest threat facing America today,” he said, raising his voice and waving a finger for emphasis. The U.S. must unify domestically, block Chinese espionage, revitalize American industry, and empower its allies to fight this danger, he warned. If China prevailed, he said, it would usher in “a new dark age of exploitation, conquest, and totalitarianism and all the worst aspects of human nature.”

Mr. Rubio attributes his staunch anti-communist views in part to his upbringing in the Cuban exile community and, in particular, to the profound influence of his late grandfather, Papá. Each morning on the family’s small front porch, the young Mr. Rubio would sit at his grandfather’s feet for hours to learn from the soft-spoken but proudly individualistic man, whom he now reveres as his closest boyhood friend.

“Papá ... believed the United States was destined to be the defender of human progress, the only power capable of preventing tyranny from dominating the world,” Mr. Rubio wrote in his 2012 autobiography, “An American Son.”

“Due to his family background, he knows that people suffer under communism,” says Sunny Cheung, an exiled Hong Kong democracy advocate and associate fellow for China Studies at The Jamestown Foundation in Washington.

Senator Rubio vs. Secretary Rubio

Mr. Cheung organized the 2019 Thanksgiving rally in Hong Kong, which he says drew tens of thousands eager to voice their gratitude to Mr. Rubio and other U.S. officials.

He also says “Beijing is not happy” with Mr. Trump’s choices of Mr. Rubio and other China hawks, such as his pick for national security adviser, Florida Rep. Mike Waltz, a retired Army officer who has called for more U.S. defense spending to counter China’s aggression toward Taiwan.

Indeed, in 2020 China sanctioned Mr. Rubio for his human rights actions, with a Foreign Ministry spokesperson saying the U.S. senator “behaved egregiously on Hong Kong-related issues.” As a result, America’s next top diplomat could be barred from traveling to China at all.

Still, experts say Beijing is relieved that Mr. Rubio has not called for the U.S. to pursue a policy of regime change toward China, as did his predecessor Michael Pompeo.

Ultimately, Mr. Trump calls the shots, says Dr. Da of Tsinghua, and the incoming president’s pragmatic tendencies may rein in the hawks on his team. “Secretary Rubio could be, to some extent, different from Senator Rubio,” he says.

Temporary protected status for immigrants faces new challenge

Temporary protected status allows certain immigrants to stay in the U.S. without the threat of deportation. President-elect Trump aims to revoke its use, particularly for Haitians in Springfield, Ohio. 

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Donald Trump campaigned – and won – on countering illegal immigration. But the president-elect has signaled plans to curb certain immigrants’ legal protections, too. 

Those include temporary protected status. TPS was designed by Congress to shield immigrants in the U.S. from violence and natural disaster back home. Mr. Trump has said he’d “revoke” it for Haitians.

TPS doesn’t provide lasting legal relief like asylum. Still, advocates on the left say it’s an important authority that keeps immigrants safe and lets them work. Critics on the right say the program encourages illegal immigration under the guise of protection, and no longer lives up to the name of “temporary.” 

It’s unclear whether the incoming Trump administration will – or even can, legally – revoke a TPS designation before its scheduled end. Refusing to prolong it would be more standard. Current protections for Haitian TPS holders are set to last through February 2026.

It’s likely “more politically expedient, or practically expedient, for an administration to let one lapse,” says Greg Chen, senior director of government relations at the American Immigration Lawyers Association. 

Temporary protected status for immigrants faces new challenge

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Jose Luis Magana/AP/File
Immigrants rally for work permits for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) and temporary protected status (TPS) programs at Franklin Park in Washington, Nov. 14, 2023.

Donald Trump campaigned – and won – on countering illegal immigration. But the president-elect has signaled plans to curb certain immigrants’ legal protections, too.

Those include temporary protected status. TPS was designed by Congress to shield immigrants in the U.S. from violence and natural disaster back home. Mr. Trump has said he’d “revoke” it for Haitians. If confirmed by the Senate, his Department of Homeland Security secretary pick, Gov. Kristi Noem of South Dakota, could carry out attempts to end its use.

TPS doesn’t provide lasting legal relief like asylum. Still, advocates on the left say it’s an important authority that keeps immigrants safe and lets them work. Critics on the right say the program encourages illegal immigration under the guise of protection, and no longer lives up to the name of “temporary.”

What is temporary protected status?

The U.S. Homeland Security secretary may designate a foreign country for TPS when conditions in that country – like armed conflict, natural disaster, or other “extraordinary and temporary” developments – make it unable to receive its nationals safely.

In 1990, Congress created this authority and President George H.W. Bush signed it into law. At the time, people fleeing a civil war in El Salvador were the first to benefit.

Immigrants who receive TPS are protected from deportation and can obtain a work permit. However, as the name suggests, this status is intended to be temporary. There is no direct path to a green card, much less citizenship, once it expires. TPS can last up to 18 months, which the Department of Homeland Security can decide to extend.

Importantly, this status is only available to immigrants already in the U.S. as of a certain date. How they arrived here doesn’t typically matter.

Currently, 16 countries are designated for TPS, including Afghanistan, Sudan, and Venezuela. Haiti is another.

Lynne Sladky/AP/File
Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas (right) stands with Sandy Dorsainvil (left), the director of the Little Haiti Cultural Center, May 25, 2021, in Miami. Mr. Mayorkas met with community leaders following the announcement of a new 18-month designation for Haiti for temporary protected status.

Have Haitians received TPS before?

Yes. Following Haiti’s catastrophic earthquake in 2010, the Obama administration offered TPS to Haitians and repeatedly prolonged it. The Trump administration initially extended TPS for Haitians, then announced its termination. Through litigation, however, Haitians were able to hold on to that status.

The Biden administration designated Haiti anew in May 2021, citing “political crisis and human rights abuses” along with other security and health concerns. Two months later, Haitian President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated. Chaos, including rampant gang violence, continues. The U.S. this month announced a temporary ban on flights to Haiti due to planes hit by gunfire.

The White House has renewed the country’s designation, with current protections for Haitian TPS holders set to last through February 2026. More than 200,000 beneficiaries had that status as of 2023, estimates the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.

Haitians in Springfield, Ohio, made headlines as Mr. Trump elevated misinformation about the group, including at a presidential debate. An influx of Haitian immigrants to the city has strained road safety and schools; the immigrants have also filled jobs.

Mr. Trump kept Haitians in the news last month when asked about the community in Springfield. He told NewsNation that, in terms of TPS, “Absolutely I’d revoke it, and I’d bring them back to their country.”

The Trump transition team did not directly respond to a request to clarify. In an emailed statement, spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said voters’ reelection of Mr. Trump is “giving him a mandate” to implement campaign promises.

Can Mr. Trump revoke TPS?

It’s unclear whether the incoming Trump administration will – or even can, legally – revoke a TPS designation before its scheduled end. Refusing to prolong it would be more standard.

It’s likely “more politically expedient, or practically expedient, for an administration to let one lapse,” says Greg Chen, senior director of government relations at the American Immigration Lawyers Association.

If their TPS isn’t renewed, an immigrant could risk living in the U.S. without authorization – and being deported – unless they apply for another protection that extends their stay.

However, “that presumes that an incoming administration would actually follow the law, and respect people’s due process and civil rights,” says Mr. Chen.

Immigrant advocates have pushed, unsuccessfully, to secure paths to permanent residence for TPS holders – some of whom have lived in the U.S. for over two decades. Those supporters forget that the “T” in TPS stands for “temporary,” says Ira Mehlman, media director at the Federation for American Immigration Reform.

“If the system is going to have any sort of integrity, then we need to make sure that people do go home – once, you know, the immediate crisis has passed,” he says.

When that day will come for Haitians is unclear.

In shifting world, post-Soviet states look back to Russia

Many of the countries that formed out of the Soviet Union aspired to link their future with the West. But European troubles and Russian aggressiveness are pulling their focus back toward Moscow.

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As the war in Ukraine grinds on and Europe gets bogged down in its own troubles, post-Soviet states are reassessing their futures away from the aspirational and toward the practical.

This comes partly from Russia’s illustration of what can happen to a neighboring country that takes an overtly anti-Moscow path. But it also comes out of the creation of many profitable new business opportunities, as Russia reorients its international trade to avoid sanctions via countries that are more friendly and accessible as conduits.

The allure of the European Union, which once shone brightly throughout the region, also seems to have faded amid the bloc’s many political and economic troubles, as well as its failure to help Ukraine sufficiently to stave off the Russians.

For instance, in Georgia’s recent elections, voters opted for the party that favored economic ties with Moscow over a pro-Europe opposition.

“Average Georgians are more concerned with economic issues and maintaining peace than anything else – both of which rely on having better relations with Russia,” says Bryan Gigantino, a historian in Tbilisi.

“Geography matters,” says Alexander Iskandaryan, a political scientist in Yerevan, Armenia. “While Georgia and Armenia aim for Europe, we know that Russia has to be taken into account.”

In shifting world, post-Soviet states look back to Russia

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Vadim Ghirda/AP
A person walks by the monument of the Leninist Komsomol Heroes, a political youth organization of the Soviet Union, in Chișinău, Moldova, Nov. 4, 2024.

Winds stirred up by shifting global realities are blowing across the former Soviet region, motivating some of those independent states to recalibrate their practical relations with Russia, even if that means postponing hopes of joining the European Union.

And those winds are likely to be just a bit chillier in the wake of Donald Trump’s election as president of the United States.

Many of the factors pushing some post-Soviet states into closer ties with Russia are long-standing ones, rooted in their common heritage as part of the U.S.S.R. for several decades. But the war in Ukraine has made it much more urgent.

This comes partly from illustrating what can happen to a neighboring country that takes an overtly anti-Moscow path. But it also comes out of the creation of many profitable new business opportunities, as Russia reorients its international trade to avoid sanctions via countries that are more friendly and accessible as conduits.

The allure of the EU, which once shone brightly throughout the region, also seems to have faded amid the bloc’s many political and economic troubles, as well as its failure to help Ukraine sufficiently to stave off the Russians.

In the long tug-of-war between Russia and the West for the allegiance of post-Soviet countries, “slowly, pragmatism seems to be winning the upper hand,” says Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the Kremlin-funded Institute of the Commonwealth of Independent States in Moscow. “Economic interests are becoming increasingly de-ideologized, and seen more as a matter of practical necessity.

“For a long time economic self-interest was subordinated to the idea that Europe represents civilization, which must be reached by pushing away from Russia whatever the cost,” he says. “Now it’s clear that Russia is a big, strong market whose business these countries need, and it can’t be substituted by European dreams.”

Zurab Javakhadze/Reuters
Supporters of the Georgian Dream party wave Georgian and party flags from cars after the announcement of exit poll results in parliamentary elections in Tbilisi, Georgia, Oct. 26, 2024.

Georgia in Russia’s shadow

The most obvious example of this trend is Georgia, a small nation in the South Caucasus that was the first, more than 20 years ago, to stage a “colored revolution” to overthrow a pro-Moscow leader and declare joining the West its key strategic goal.

Georgia lost a brief war with Russia in 2008, and spent several subsequent years having virtually no relations with its giant neighbor. In recent years, the ruling Georgian Dream party has moved to mend economic fences with Russia, while still insisting its long-term goal is to join the EU.

But it has also begun requiring transparency from foreign-funded civil society groups, as many countries are doing, leading the EU to suspend the country’s accession bid and cut financial aid.

The Georgian Dream party won October parliamentary elections with 54%, a result fiercely disputed by the opposition but affirmed last week by the country’s election commission. Despite ongoing protests, and criticisms of the vote from the West, the outcome seems likely to hold. Observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe had concerns about the elections, but noted that “voters were offered a choice between 18 candidate lists and candidates could generally campaign freely.”

“Average Georgians are more concerned with economic issues and maintaining peace than anything else – both of which rely on having better relations with Russia,” says Bryan Gigantino, a historian and lecturer at the Georgian American University in Tbilisi. He says the Georgian Dream party is not particularly “pro-Russian,” as its critics often claim, but is seeking to navigate the difficult middle ground between East and West, while maximizing benefits for Georgia.

“This line of thinking is also common among some political forces in Europe, which explains why Georgian Dream aligns so strongly with Hungary,” whose prime minister, Viktor Orbán, was the first foreign leader to visit Georgia after the election, says Mr. Gigantino.

Mr. Trump may be more understanding of this pragmatic attitude as well. Improving the very bad current relations between Washington and Tbilisi hinges on the hope that “a Trump administration would be open to a relationship that is more transactional, and less dependent on abstract and ever-changing values,” Mr. Gigantino adds.

Marton Monus/Reuters
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán greets Moldova's President Maia Sandu at the European Political Community Summit in Budapest, Hungary, Nov. 7, 2024.

“Geography matters”

The shifting mood is also visible in tiny Moldova. There pro-Western voters narrowly won a referendum in October on prioritizing the country’s EU membership, while pro-Western president Maia Sandu won against a candidate who espoused a Georgian-style pragmatic approach to relations with the West and Russia by a smaller margin than expected in November.

Many were shocked at the tight nature of both victories. Charges of Russian meddling, including allegations of vote-buying by a Moldovan oligarch on the lam in Russia, could have substance. Barely a year earlier polls had found almost two-thirds support for EU membership, while the referendum only passed after votes from Moldova’s diaspora in the West were counted.

Unlike Georgia, Moldova has large Russian-speaking populations, including the ethnically Turkic region of Gagauzia, which is home to about 5% of Moldovans, and the breakaway republic of Transnistria, a long strip along the Ukrainian border with another 10%. They tend to favor the direction Georgia has taken with Moscow.

“Most of the people in those Russian-speaking areas do not like the fact that Moldova joined the anti-Russian sanctions,” says Alexander Corinenco, an independent political scientist in the capital of Chișinău. “They look at Georgia and see the politics they are pursuing is more in our national interests, while they think that Moldovan leaders just want to cozy up with Europe. In Gagauzia, the local leaders congratulated Trump very publicly on his victory, because they hope it signals a change in the political direction.”

Similar trends can be seen in other post-Soviet states, such as Armenia and Kazakhstan, where post-Soviet links to the West remain strong, but the economic pull of Russia is a factor that cannot be evaded.

“Geography matters,” says Alexander Iskandaryan, director of the independent Caucasus Institute in Yerevan, Armenia. “While Georgia and Armenia aim for Europe, we know that Russia has to be taken into account.

“European values may be popular, especially among the youth, but Armenian business depends heavily on the Russian market, and cooperation is growing,” he says. “Politics is one thing, and import-export figures are quite another. For Armenia, both Russia and the West matter, and neither can be ignored.”

Books

Five children’s picture books bring beauty and delight to story time

Reading picture books aloud is soothing for both children and adults. Celebrating good things, acknowledging worries, and giving and receiving help are all messages to savor.

From “A Little Like Magic,” Illustrations © 2024 By Sarah Kurpiel/Rocky Pond Books
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Beautifully illustrated children’s books are a wonder, bringing together artistic images with sensitively rendered stories.

Monitor contributor Tegan Tigani’s five favorite selections range from “A Dinosaur a Day,” with its scientific-looking full-color pictures, to “A Voice in the Storm,” with its painterly evocations of turmoil and refuge.

Other books in the roundup speak to cultural and family dynamics. For example, the family in “When Love Is More Than Words” shows its care for each other by small daily acts of kindness rather than in big pronouncements.

In another story, “A Roof!,” set in a Filipino village, a father and daughter set out after a flood to return a corrugated roof that has washed up in their yard.

Affection and cooperation are important themes in these stories, but so are having fun and enjoying all the visual delights from these talented illustrators.

Five children’s picture books bring beauty and delight to story time

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During dark or difficult times, reading aloud to children can help both adults and young ones recognize good things in the world around them. The books featured here offer delightful ways to augment appreciation, reinforce enthusiasm, inspire creativity, create community, and bolster courage.

Many ways to express love

Although no one in her extended family uses the phrase “I love you,” the child who narrates “When Love Is More Than Words” understands the affection behind their actions. Author Jocelyn Chung and illustrator Julia Kuo, both Taiwanese Americans, touch on their own cultural experience, but the overall emotional experience is universal.

The book opens with the young narrator saying, “Some people say they love you with hugs, kisses, and three special words. But in my family, we do something different.” 

"When Love Is More Than Words," written by Jocelyn Chung and illustrated by Julia Kuo, Nancy Paulsen Books, 32 pp. Recommended for ages 3-7.

Her grandparents, parents, aunts, and uncles demonstrate love through dancing, making meals, and reading together. The warm scenes of family life are surrounded by motifs that foreshadow specifics of love languages that we will learn in the pages that follow: the iris bulbs planted by her grandpa to bloom on her birthday; a jar of Tiger Balm her mama uses to care for her when she’s sick; the lima beans her great-grandmother grows. 

Everyone can bask in the sense of loving care among the family – and even the wider community – assured that, like the narrator, “I know I have a village of people around me who love me.”

A year’s worth of dino delights

"A Dinosaur a Day," written by Miranda Smith and illustrated by Jenny Wren, Xuan Le, Max Rambaldi, Juan Calle, and Olga Baumert, Bright Matter Books, 224 pp. Recommended for ages 6-9.

Do you have a favorite dinosaur? Have you ever asked the young people in your life about their favorite dinosaurs? Dino trivia is a love language for some people. “A Dinosaur a Day,” written by Miranda Smith and illustrated by Jenny Wren, Xuan Le, Max Rambaldi, Juan Calle, and Olga Baumert guarantees a year’s worth of paleontological pleasures, if you can limit yourself to just one entry a day. There really are 365 dinosaurs, with their key characteristics, behaviors, and habitats gloriously and meticulously rendered. I highly recommend dipping into the book at random to stimulate curiosity and satisfy the craving for knowledge. A dinosaur can make any day special. 

Stepping out of one’s comfort zone

"A Little Like Magic," written and illustrated by Sarah Kurpiel, Rocky Pond Books, 40 pp. Recommended for ages 4-8.

Sometimes new experiences can feel uncomfortable or overwhelming. The main character in “A Little Like Magic,” written and illustrated by Sarah Kurpiel, is not a fan of the cold or of scratchy winter clothes, so an ice sculpture festival outdoors does not seem like something they will enjoy. The opening line, “I do not want to go,” probably resonates with a lot of us at one time or another. Bundling up doesn’t feel worth the trouble, especially if it means leaving a cozy home and devoted dog. Anxiety might outweigh our sense of adventure. 

“We follow a loud whirring, brr-ing, buzzing sound I hear even in my chest,” the narrator says. Mother and child brave the weather and the crowd. They see the talent on display in a landscape of gorgeous frozen creations, but the narrator leaves behind a special toy. This leads to the painfully honest statement “I wish we’d never gone.” Despite that, the pair return the next night, when they both appreciate the ephemeral beauty and the lingering power of memory. Sometimes trying new things to stretch beyond our comfort zones can bring great rewards.

Acts of cooperation

In a year when everyone has seen images of, or experienced, real-life climate disasters, “A Roof!,” written by Stephanie Ellen Sy and illustrated by Daniel Tingcungco, feels like a particularly healing story. 

"A Roof!" written by Stephanie Ellen Sy and illustrated by Daniel Tingcungco, Kokila, 40 pp. Recommended for ages 3-7.

The book opens with a dramatic storm spreading ominously across the page, above a little house and tree: “HOWL RUMBLE WEEWOOOOOH!” On the next page, we see someone peeking out of the lit window of that house: young Maya, who discovers that the typhoon has deposited someone else’s roof in her backyard. She and her father set out to return the roof to the address written on it. This book chronicles their journey and the many acts of cooperation that overcome obstacles they face along the way. 

The Filipino concept of bayanihan, a sense of working together that the author translates as “being in a community,” is depicted beautifully. Maya leads the way, but everyone she encounters joins in to assist, support, and repair. “Together, they rebuild. Nail after nail, board after board, heart after heart.” Through this gorgeous, loving book, readers see how one person’s instinct to help the community inspires others to pitch in, too.

Courtesy of Kokila
From “A Roof!,” written by Stephanie Ellen Sy and illustrated by Daniel Tingcungco.

Learning to ask for help

“A Voice in the Storm,” written and illustrated by Karl James Mountford, is lovely and affirming, offering ways to deal with the storms inside us (and the ones outside, too). The main characters, Rat and Bear, show how much courage it can take to ask for help and to receive it. 

Several well-intentioned animal friends recognize that Rat is not doing well, but Rat tries to run away from her feelings, despite the intensifying storm outside. “The storm screamed with loneliness, sang loudly of sadness, and seemed to sigh in between. It reminded Rat of how she felt.” The natural world echoes Rat’s tempestuous inner world. 

"A Voice in the Storm," written and illustrated by Karl James Mountford, Candlewick Studio, 40 pp. Recommended for ages 3-7.

When Rat stumbles upon a big and perhaps intimidating stranger, readers might be worried (especially after her near-devastating encounter with a snake). But rather than threatening the vulnerable Rat, Bear offers understanding and support.

This book exemplifies how to be gentle with yourself and strong for others. The pictures offer reassurance. Bear’s solid bulk looks comforting. The whorls of tree stumps provide a place to rest, proof that even things that are broken still have use. Snails are present throughout Rat’s journey, slow and steady. Mushrooms and flowers grow, sometimes side by side, showing that life can flourish in both shade and light. Raindrops and tears can be visually similar, both representing catharsis. After the storm, the sun emerges and stays for the rest of the book – an enduring symbol of hope.

“A Voice in the Storm” copyright © 2024 by Karl James Mountford. Reproduced by permission of the publisher, Candlewick Press, Somerville, Massachusetts, on behalf of Walker Books, London.

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A guardrail holds

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Four years ago, just days into the Biden administration with the Senate divided down the middle, the senior senator from South Dakota rose in eloquent defense of deliberation and compromise.

“Our Founders recognized the importance of putting safeguards in place to ensure that majorities wouldn’t curtail or eliminate minority rights,” said John Thune, a Republican, from the Senate floor. “They made the Senate smaller and senators’ terms of office longer, with the intention of creating a more stable, more thoughtful, and more deliberative legislative body to check ill-considered or intemperate legislation or attempts to curtail minority rights.”

Those words are freshly relevant. Mr. Thune is the newly elected leader of the incoming Republican Senate majority. In one of his first statements in that role, amid a hail of controversial Cabinet picks from Donald Trump, he vowed to preserve the filibuster – a legislative tool that compels consensus.

The Senate’s early gestures of independence underscore that governing rests on ideas as much as it does on the people who hold powerful jobs.

“All Americans, whether or not they’re in the majority, deserve to be represented,” Senator Thune said four years ago. Deliberation “requires more thought, more debate, and greater consensus.”

A guardrail holds

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U.S. Senator John Thune of South Dakota after being elected as Senate Republican Majority Leader, Nov. 13, 2024, in the Capitol.

Four years ago, just days into the Biden administration with the Senate divided down the middle, the senior senator from South Dakota rose in eloquent defense of deliberation and compromise.

“Our Founders recognized the importance of putting safeguards in place to ensure that majorities wouldn’t curtail or eliminate minority rights,” said John Thune, a Republican, from the Senate floor. “They made the Senate smaller and senators’ terms of office longer, with the intention of creating a more stable, more thoughtful, and more deliberative legislative body to check ill-considered or intemperate legislation or attempts to curtail minority rights.” 

Those words are freshly relevant. Mr. Thune is the newly elected leader of the incoming Republican Senate majority. In one of his first statements in that role, amid a hail of controversial Cabinet picks from Donald Trump, he vowed to preserve the filibuster – a legislative tool that compels consensus. 

That decision was unlikely to curry favor with the president-elect, who prizes loyalty and has urged the Senate to abdicate its constitutional role of weighing nominations through “advice and consent.” But it reinforced a guardrail. Last week, his first choice for attorney general, Matt Gaetz, withdrew after Republicans in the Senate expressed their unwillingness to overlook the former Florida congressman’s alleged criminal misconduct.

The Senate’s early gestures of independence underscore that governing rests on ideas as much as it does on the people who hold powerful jobs. The framers of the American Constitution established a system of checks and balances among three equal branches. In the Senate, that equilibrium draws on what James Madison called “the stability of character.” 

Its mandate of consent for appointments to senior positions in the executive and judicial branches upholds a moral agency to reject or approve. When the late Senate Majority Leader Robert Dole was asked how he approached his work in Congress, he described it this way: “Well, I’m going to sit back and watch for a few days, and then I’ll stand up for what I think is right.” 

“America has never achieved greatness when Republicans and Democrats simply manage to work together or tolerate each other,” Mr. Dole wrote in an op-ed published in The Washington Post shortly after his death in 2021. “When we prioritize principles over party and humanity over personal legacy, we accomplish far more as a nation.” 

Republicans claimed a broad mandate after winning the White House and both chambers of Congress. Yet unified government is no guarantee of unanimity in governing. In the three weeks since, many in the Senate have tempered party allegiance with individual reason.

“All Americans, whether or not they’re in the majority, deserve to be represented,” Senator Thune said four years ago. Deliberation “requires more thought, more debate, and greater consensus.”

A Christian Science Perspective

About this feature

Each weekday, the Monitor includes one clearly labeled religious article offering spiritual insight on contemporary issues, including the news. The publication – in its various forms – is produced for anyone who cares about the progress of the human endeavor around the world and seeks news reported with compassion, intelligence, and an essentially constructive lens. For many, that caring has religious roots. For many, it does not. The Monitor has always embraced both audiences. The Monitor is owned by a church – The First Church of Christ, Scientist, in Boston – whose founder was concerned with both the state of the world and the quality of available news.

The cycle we can depend on

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Prayerfully leaning on God as the divine Principle of all enables us to stop any cycle that doesn’t further spiritual goodness in our lives. 

The cycle we can depend on

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Today's Christian Science Perspective audio edition

If we find ourselves grappling with repetitive uncertainty, conflict, discomfort, or pain, can we reasonably expect to find permanent freedom? Even the best human efforts can’t loose us from persistent challenges and bring us security. And adding fear, anger, helplessness, or personal ego to the mix certainly doesn’t help.

But looking to God as the divine Principle of harmonious life, there’s a present cycle of unfolding good we can find that breaks us free from cycles of evil. Like the psalmist, we can say, “In my distress I called upon the Lord. ... He delivered me from my strong enemy. ... Who is God save the Lord? or who is a rock save our God? It is God that girdeth me with strength, and maketh my way perfect” (Psalms 18:6, 17, 31, 32). Through our Rock of salvation, we can find strength, direction, energy, inspiration, and deliverance from evil.

The discoverer of Christian Science, Mary Baker Eddy, wrote, “The cycle of good obliterates the epicycle of evil” (“The First Church of Christ, Scientist, and Miscellany,” p. 270). She understood God, the divine Principle of good, to hold His creation in an eternal round of unfolding harmony. She explained, “All reality is in God and His creation, harmonious and eternal. That which He creates is good, and He makes all that is made. Therefore the only reality of sin, sickness, or death is the awful fact that unrealities seem real to human, erring belief, until God strips off their disguise. They are not true, because they are not of God” (“Science and Health with Key to the Scriptures,” p. 472).

This doesn’t mean one should simply ignore evil. But we can expect to resolve any evil through a better understanding of divine Principle as the infinite All, and consequently the unopposable force of life. As Christ Jesus showed, there is no reality, substance, or power in any cycle or force that opposes God, the divine all-good. We as God’s likeness are the spiritual expression of this divine Principle.

Prayer doesn’t bring us into the cycle of good but awakens us to it, revealing God’s goodness to be our present and demonstrable reality. This awareness obliterates any claim of evil in the same way that turning on a light extinguishes darkness. There is no battle there. The existence and presence of light effortlessly renders darkness an impossibility.

As we understand God to be the source of spiritual light, and know that we reflect this light, the work of healing becomes effortless. Nothing can ever come between us and the divine Principle of good, because God says of us, “I have given My law in their inward part, and I write it on their heart, and I have been their God, and they are My people” (Jeremiah 31:33, Literal Standard Version).

Cycles of evil in any form are not the unstoppable reality they may appear to be. When my dad returned from his military service, he was caught in a cycle of depression and an economic slump that left him unable to support his family. Then my mom learned of Christian Science, and, as she put it, “I found God to be my Rock.”

Leaning on the divine Principle of health and wholeness in prayer, she understood better that stability in life rests on God’s unchangeable goodness and love for His creation. She could find no basis in God’s love for Dad to suffer from fear, limitation, trauma, or disease. Her prayers resulted in Dad’s permanent healing from depressive cycles and also led to his finding a professional path that satisfied the family’s needs for more than seven decades.

Later as Mom approached menopause, she had a hemorrhage. But she told me that she had too much confidence in God’s ability to heal to put up with that for long. She understood the cycle of good to be the only cycle in control of her health. Her menstrual cycle and all issues related to perimenopause, including that hemorrhage, stopped in one night and never returned.

We can bring healing to cyclical conflict, trauma, economic instability, and disease by finding God to be divine intelligence, or Principle, in which “we live, and move, and have our being” (Acts 17:28). Step by step we can prove that God’s control of the universe obliterates evil cycles and reveals the dominion, security, and health natural to each of us as the children of God.

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Eliminating violence

Bikas Das/AP
Activists from nongovernmental organizations rally to mark the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women, in Kolkata, India, Nov. 25, 2024. According to the United Nations group UN Women, some 51,100 women worldwide were killed by their intimate partners or other family members in 2023. Such violence affects a broad range of women, particularly those who are displaced, poor, or living in conflict situations. Women with higher public profiles are also often targets of threats and harassment.
( The illustrations in today’s Monitor Daily are by Jacob Turcotte. )

A look ahead

Thank you for spending time with us today. Please come back tomorrow when Francine Kiefer looks at how President-elect Donald Trump’s economic team is taking shape. It includes some built-in tensions that reflect Mr. Trump himself.

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