India-Russia summit: Why the world’s largest democracy is keeping Putin close

|
Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) examine the ceremonial hall before Mr. Modi is presented Russia's highest civilian honor, the Order of St. Andrew the Apostle the First-Called, in the Kremlin in Moscow, July 9, 2024.
  • Quick Read
  • Deep Read ( 4 Min. )

On his first trip to Russia since the war in Ukraine began, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi treated Russian President Vladimir Putin as if they were old friends – which their nations are.

For decades, India has relied on Russia for military equipment. Today, India’s warmth toward Russia helps ensure India receives a supply of cheap oil as Moscow faces sanctions from the West. During the summit, Mr. Modi and Mr. Putin agreed to boost bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030, announced the opening of two new Indian consulates in Russia, and discussed the need for peace talks to end the conflict in Ukraine. 

Why We Wrote This

India-Russia ties seem as strong as ever after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin spent two days together in Moscow. But for India, experts say, the trip was really about asserting independence.

Western powers want India –  the world’s largest democracy and an increasingly important U.S. ally in Asia – to be tougher on Russia. But experts say the United States grudgingly accepts the relationship, which helps counterbalance China’s power. 

It also serves Mr. Modi’s ambitions to raise India’s profile as a global leader and meet other economic and security goals.

“Overall, [the trip] just underlines the fact that India will decide its relationships on the basis of its national interest, and it’s not going to be swayed by pressures from other powers,” says Nandan Unnikrishnan from Observer Research Foundation, a think tank in Delhi.

On his first trip to Russia since the war in Ukraine began, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi embraced Russian President Vladimir Putin in one of his signature bear hugs. 

The embrace outraged many. India celebrates being the world’s largest democracy, and is an increasingly important U.S. ally in Asia. But other than Mr. Modi’s veiled criticism of Russia’s attack on a ​​children’s hospital in Kyiv that occurred before his arrival on Monday, the two leaders got on like old friends – which their nations are. 

India has long relied on Russia for military equipment, and today, India’s warmth toward Russia helps ensure a supply of cheap coal, oil, and fertilizer for the country of 1.4 billion.

Why We Wrote This

India-Russia ties seem as strong as ever after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin spent two days together in Moscow. But for India, experts say, the trip was really about asserting independence.

While India’s Western allies want Delhi to be tougher on Russia, experts say the United States accepts the relationship.

Pankaj Saran, former deputy national security adviser of India, says that over the past 70 years, the India-Russia relationship has powered through difficult times. The U.S. concern over India’s closeness with Russia has only been a challenge for the last two years.

“It is not as if there is anything secret about the relationship” between Delhi and Moscow, says Mr. Saran, who was India’s envoy to Russia from 2016 to 2018. “The Americans understand that the Indians are getting the discounted oil,” and that India isn’t Russia’s only potential ally in Asia. 

“If you look at Russia and China, then India does not consider Russia in the same adversarial manner as it considers China,” which shares a contentious border with India, he says. “We have to maintain this friendship also to ensure that ... we do not push Russia further into Chinese arms.”

Rajanish Kakade/AP
An employee of a fuel station fills petrol in Mumbai, India, in June 2022. India and other Asian nations are becoming an increasingly vital source of oil revenues for Moscow as the United States and other Western countries cut their energy imports from Russia in line with sanctions over its war on Ukraine.

India’s national priorities

Russia and India established a strategic defense and trade partnership during the Cold War, a relationship that persisted after the fall of the Soviet Union and was solidified in 2000 when the two countries signed a new cooperation declaration. 

Facing U.S. sanctions after invading Ukraine, Russia deepened trade ties with India, offering significant discounts on oil and making India a major export market. Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra said last week that bilateral trade has witnessed a sharp increase in the 2023-24 financial year, reaching approximately $65 billion primarily due to energy cooperation. 

During the summit, Mr. Modi and Mr. Putin agreed to boost bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030, announced the opening of two new Indian consulates in Russia, and discussed the need for peace talks. Russia also supported India’s United Nations Security Council bid and agreed to release Indians controversially recruited into the Russian army. 

For Russia, the meeting demonstrated that Moscow still has friends. For India, it marked a bold step forward on foreign and domestic goals. 

“Modi’s dreams of transforming India economically depend on the country’s ability to attract investment and technology from global partners, and to effectively secure the homeland,” says Milan Vaishnav, South Asia Program director at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based think tank.

Even as Western allies pressure Delhi to distance itself from Moscow, India’s friendship with Russia still serves Mr. Modi’s ambitions to raise India’s profile as a global leader.

“Overall, [the trip] just underlines the fact that India will decide its relationships on the basis of its national interest, and it’s not going to be swayed by pressures from other powers,” says Nandan Unnikrishnan, head of Eurasian Studies at Observer Research Foundation, a think tank in Delhi.

Indeed, India’s foreign policy prioritizes independence. Its goal is to balance relations among three major powers – Russia, the U.S., and China – and to prevent any single hegemon from dominating Asia.

Manish Swarup/AP
A U.S. Army soldier and an Indian army soldier carry their respective country flags during an Indo-U.S. joint exercise in the Indian state of Uttarakhand, Nov. 30, 2022. India is an increasingly important U.S. ally in Asia.

Grudging acceptance

Among those major powers, India’s relations with China are currently the most strained. 

In this geopolitical balancing act, that puts India and the U.S. on the same page. Just as Delhi sees ties to Moscow as essential for limiting Beijing’s power, the U.S. is prioritizing ties with India to counterbalance China, explains Peter Rough, director of the Center on Europe and Eurasia at Hudson Institute, a Washington-based think tank.

“India’s relationship with Russia is secondary for Washington,” he says. “The goal of U.S. foreign policy should be to maximize alignment and overlap on priority issues, and not allow differences or disagreements on secondary matters to hamper relations.”

Michael Kugelman, South Asia Institute director at the Wilson Center, says that the West may not agree with India’s neutral position on Ukraine, but most Western allies recognize it as a consequence of India’s partnership with Russia.

“It’s a partnership that is problematic for the U.S., especially given all the Russian military equipment in an Indian defense system receiving ample U.S. defense technologies, but it’s a partnership the U.S. has grudgingly accepted,” he says. 

Mr. Kugelman says there’s little the U.S. can do but play the long game, seeking ways to eventually provide India with the military and energy supplies it has relied on from Russia, a process that will take time.

Mr. Saran, the deputy security adviser, says Mr. Modi’s commitment to independent foreign policy could prove valuable to the West. “There is also an element here of trying to engage the Russians and Putin into some kind of a dialogue, in the hope that this dialogue can contribute towards” diplomacy with the West and peace in Ukraine, he says. 

Eugene Rumer, former U.S. National Intelligence Council officer for Russia and Eurasia, agrees. He calls India an important U.S. partner, sharing many interests as seen in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or the Quad, comprised of India, the U.S., Australia, and Japan. “The relationship between Russia and the U.S. could benefit from mediation, and it could be a good thing if India could play that part.”

You've read  of  free articles. Subscribe to continue.
Real news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.
What is the Monitor difference? Tackling the tough headlines – with humanity. Listening to sources – with respect. Seeing the story that others are missing by reporting what so often gets overlooked: the values that connect us. That’s Monitor reporting – news that changes how you see the world.

Dear Reader,

About a year ago, I happened upon this statement about the Monitor in the Harvard Business Review – under the charming heading of “do things that don’t interest you”:

“Many things that end up” being meaningful, writes social scientist Joseph Grenny, “have come from conference workshops, articles, or online videos that began as a chore and ended with an insight. My work in Kenya, for example, was heavily influenced by a Christian Science Monitor article I had forced myself to read 10 years earlier. Sometimes, we call things ‘boring’ simply because they lie outside the box we are currently in.”

If you were to come up with a punchline to a joke about the Monitor, that would probably be it. We’re seen as being global, fair, insightful, and perhaps a bit too earnest. We’re the bran muffin of journalism.

But you know what? We change lives. And I’m going to argue that we change lives precisely because we force open that too-small box that most human beings think they live in.

The Monitor is a peculiar little publication that’s hard for the world to figure out. We’re run by a church, but we’re not only for church members and we’re not about converting people. We’re known as being fair even as the world becomes as polarized as at any time since the newspaper’s founding in 1908.

We have a mission beyond circulation, we want to bridge divides. We’re about kicking down the door of thought everywhere and saying, “You are bigger and more capable than you realize. And we can prove it.”

If you’re looking for bran muffin journalism, you can subscribe to the Monitor for $15. You’ll get the Monitor Weekly magazine, the Monitor Daily email, and unlimited access to CSMonitor.com.

QR Code to India-Russia summit: Why the world’s largest democracy is keeping Putin close
Read this article in
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-South-Central/2024/0710/india-russia-trade-security-ukraine-china
QR Code to Subscription page
Start your subscription today
https://www.csmonitor.com/subscribe