One question will dominate Afghanistan and its neighbors in 2011: How deeply will President Obama cut the number of US troops in Afghanistan? He promised a drawdown in July, but said ground conditions would dictate the decrease.
US allies and enemies alike will calibrate their approach to Afghanistan based on Mr. Obama's decision. Current signals from the US indicate that few forces will leave, making the 2011 drawdown merely symbolic.
A fast exit could indicate the readiness of Afghan security forces, but more likely would indicate US disillusionment. If Pakistan or the Taliban conclude that the US is running for the door, peace talks could stall.
The possibility of a negotiated settlement remains a wild card in the region. At the moment it appears that the Taliban do not feel enough pressure to engage – despite punishing strikes against the insurgency's mid-level leadership by Gen. David Petraeus, who wields the full force of US power in Afghanistan.
Pakistan's role in the Afghan drama could be increased with an Obama visit this spring. It would be his first visit as president (he went once as a college student). Topping the US wish list – besides the elusive Osama bin Laden – is a military offensive in North Waziristan.
The region is the last of the tribal areas untouched by the Pakistani military drive that began in earnest in spring 2009, making the zone a final refuge for militants. The Pakistani military has avoided North Waziristan because it's the headquarters of Afghan warlord Jalaluddin Haqqani. While the Haqqanis have at times enjoyed Pakistani patronage as part of Islamabad's efforts to wield influence in Kabul, they have led a punishing fight against the US. Signals from Pakistan indicate the military could move on the Haqqanis after the snows melt next year. But the Haqqani forces may be on the move.
For India, 2010 closed with a surprising level of political turbulence for a government that's delivering 8 percent economic growth and welcoming visits by the Who's Who of global leaders. The reason: corruption. While Prime Minister Manmohan Singh still maintains a reputation for honesty, high-level ministers have been engulfed by scandal. Mr. Singh is under mounting pressure to tackle corruption forcefully in 2011 to reassure Indians and outside investors.
– Ben Arnoldy, New Delhi bureau chief
